Johnson prepares for speaker showdown, aiming to sidestep McCarthy's mistakes
Conservatives are currently presenting a wide range of demands, raising concerns among centrists who worry that these actions could lead to increased chaos this year.
With his speakership at stake — despite backing from President-elect Donald Trump — the Louisiana Republican aims to avoid the side deals with conservative members that ultimately led to Kevin McCarthy's downfall. However, attaining this balance is proving to be quite difficult.
Fiscal conservatives want Johnson to commit to increased control over the legislative process and significant spending cuts — promises that may be hard for him to uphold given the slim GOP majority. While some conservatives believe Johnson is being receptive to their requests, there are concerns regarding his decision about whether to retain three conservative rebels on the House Rules Committee, according to a Republican who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the discussions.
The implications of this situation are significant, and the outcome remains uncertain as the clock ticks down. Approximately a dozen Republicans are still undecided, even as Johnson has been working diligently over the past few days to secure the necessary 218 votes. He can only afford to see one GOP member vote for an alternative candidate but several indicated they would not disclose their decisions beforehand on Thursday.
While Johnson has stated his intention to secure the speakership immediately on Friday, he has also hinted at the possibility of being more accommodating toward the hardliners within the party to achieve that goal.
“People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things, and I’m open to that,” he remarked Thursday after meeting with hardliners. He acknowledged that if he does not succeed on the first ballot, “that’s the process of Congress with a small majority.”
Amidst the uncertainty, some GOP members fear a protracted battle for the speakership could force Johnson to yield to demands that would complicate the party's ability to advance its priorities concerning the border, energy, and taxes. Achieving those objectives will already be challenging given the narrow margin in the House.
This speaker race represents House Republicans' initial real test of unification in the current Congress.
“We need to get that taken care of, get it behind us, and get on with our work on policy,” said Republican Policy Committee Chair Kevin Hern in a brief interview. He emphasized that a chaotic speaker race would "certainly" hinder the party's policy goals.
Another Republican lawmaker, requesting anonymity to speak freely, expressed the need for Friday to proceed without complications, stating, “this year is going to be tragic.”
Moreover, the early demands for Johnson are mounting: Rep. Chip Roy is pushing to be chair of the Rules Committee while the speaker's allies are advocating for his removal from the panel completely. The fates of the other two conservative committee members also remain uncertain: Rep. Thomas Massie, who has publicly stated his opposition to Johnson, anticipates losing his seat, while Rep. Ralph Norman recently mentioned to PMG that he desires to remain on the committee but is waiting for guidance from Johnson.
Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, known for her unpredictable behavior during crucial votes, presented Johnson with a comprehensive list of demands last month to secure her backing. A close associate of Massie, Spartz is viewed as one of the most erratic among the undecided members.
After meeting with Johnson in a closed-door session on Thursday, Spartz informed reporters she would announce her decision regarding the speakership on Friday — reflective of many who are reserving judgment until the last moment.
“We had a good meeting with the speaker, discussed some things. In a lot of things we agree,” she stated.
GOP members from various factions are cautioning Johnson against significant concessions, arguing that such moves could result in issues reminiscent of those that weakened McCarthy's leadership.
“It will cause problems elsewhere,” remarked one Republican lawmaker, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.
In addition to the speaker's race, Johnson faces the need to secure approval for a rules package that outlines how the House functions, a task he cannot count on Democrats to assist with. He requires nearly unanimous support to move forward with the rules package released on Wednesday, and both Massie and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene have already aired their concerns. Johnson cannot afford to lose both representatives' votes.
Should Johnson capitulate to the demands of hardliners, he risks repeating the mistakes of his predecessor, McCarthy, who made numerous agreements prior to and during the 15 rounds it took him to become speaker. Many believe these promises, including making it easier to remove a speaker and granting the hardliners key positions on the Rules Committee, sowed discord within the House GOP over the past two years. Centrists accused McCarthy of yielding too much authority and still faced removal just ten months later.
As Johnson's remaining undecided members exited his office on Thursday, several maintained silence, though one acknowledged that he “has work to do” to secure the speakership. Rep. Scott Perry added that the group is “keeping our powder dry.” When asked about concerns over potential backlash from Trump for not supporting the former president’s nominee, Reps. Michael Cloud and Andrew Clyde downplayed the threat. Cloud followed up in a tweet, clarifying that his focus is not on delaying Trump's agenda but on pursuing “structural changes” related to how the House operates.
Norman refrained from commenting on whether the group would settle for verbal commitments or require written assurances, but indicated they were steadfast on key issues: “fiscal discipline, securing the border, pass reconciliation.”
“The president has got four years, but in reality he’s got 12 to 14 months,” he noted.
Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
Frederick R Cook contributed to this report for TROIB News