Harris's Progress Has Slowed Down, Not Reversed: 5 Key Insights from Recent Polls
As the election approaches, neither candidate has distanced themselves from the other with less than two months remaining.
TroibNews 
The stakes for Tuesday’s debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are incredibly high.
Almost a month ago, PMG highlighted five critical indicators to track the election's direction, moving beyond just the Harris-Trump matchup. Analyzing these indicators with new polling data indicates that while Harris has experienced a slowdown in momentum, she still enjoys increasing popularity. Additionally, Democratic voters appear significantly more energized compared to the period when President Joe Biden was leading the ticket.
However, the race remains remarkably close.
While Trump held a 2-point advantage in a poll from The New York Times/Siena College released on Sunday, Harris averages a national lead between 1 and 3 percentage points. This narrow margin places Harris's current national lead closer to Hillary Clinton’s insufficient 2-point popular-vote win in 2016 than to Biden’s 4-point victory in 2020.
The battleground states also reveal extreme competitiveness. In three prominent polling averages—RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin—each of the seven contested states falls within a 3-point range either way. Harris’s strongest lead is seen in Wisconsin, while Trump’s most significant advantage is in Arizona.
A closer look reveals the reasons behind Harris's ability to narrow the gap, suggesting that neither candidate has gained a clear edge going into Tuesday’s debate.
Kamala Harris' favorable rating has seen an uptick:
- On June 27: 39 percent
- On Aug. 14: 45 percent
- Now: 48 percent
Americans have begun to reassess Harris since her ascension to the top of the ticket, though this surge of support seems to have plateaued for the moment.
Voter sentiment shows that roughly the same number of voters hold a favorable view of Harris as view her unfavorably. This polarized perception is not overwhelming but is relatively encouraging for a political figure today. Moreover, it positions her as slightly more favorable than Trump, whose average rating is 44 percent.
Interestingly, The New York Times/Siena College poll revealed nearly identical favorable/unfavorable ratings: 46 percent favorable/51 percent unfavorable for Harris, and 46 percent favorable/52 percent unfavorable for Trump. Yet, broader findings indicate a slight favorability edge for Harris.
Harris is facing both risk and potential reward in Tuesday’s debate. While 90 percent of surveyed voters feel they know enough about Trump, only 71 percent express the same familiarity with Harris. This gap suggests that her numbers could shift dramatically based on her performance, whereas Trump’s ratings are likely to remain stable.
The share of votes for third-party candidates has experienced significant change:
- July 21: 12.2 points
- Aug. 14: 7.1 points
- Now: 3 points
The 2024 election was initially expected to see high levels of third-party voting, but that trend has drastically declined following the Democratic candidate switch and the end of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign.
Currently, some polls—like the New York Times/Siena College poll—omit Kennedy from their options altogether. Among the 10 polls contributing to the RealClearPolitics average, only three included Kennedy's name.
Increased satisfaction with the major-party candidates, combined with the lesser recognition of alternative options, has led to a marked decrease in interest in third-party contenders. In the New York Times/Siena College poll, Libertarian Chase Oliver received 2 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein garnered 1 percent. Notably, neither Kennedy nor Cornel West was presented as a voting option, with fewer than 1 percent of likely voters voluntarily mentioning either.
Kennedy once had the potential to qualify for the debate stage. He needed to achieve 15 percent in four qualifying polls from early August to early September—an ambitious but feasible goal based on his earlier standing this year. While he secured three qualifying polls for the Biden-Trump June debate, he could not meet the ballot access criteria for that matchup.
Examining voter enthusiasm:
- Democrats who are “very enthusiastic”: 72 percent
- Republicans who are “very enthusiastic”: 69 percent
As seen in last month’s state polls, Democrats have caught up to Republicans in the enthusiasm gap, which had previously favored Republicans when Biden was their candidate.
Currently, both parties are nearly tied on enthusiasm levels, as are the two candidates. An equal percentage of Harris and Trump voters described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about participating in the upcoming November election in the poll conducted by The Times.
This enthusiasm translates to voting intentions: 63 percent of likely Democratic voters reported being “almost certain” to vote, compared to 61 percent of Republicans. This sentiment holds true among supporters of both candidates, with 62 percent of Harris voters and 58 percent of Trump voters expressing that they are “almost certain” to cast their ballots.
In terms of economic perception:
- July: Trump 52 percent, Harris 40 percent
- Now: Trump 51 percent, Harris 43 percent
Perceptions surrounding the economy continue to be a significant issue for voters, providing Trump with a consistent advantage.
Democrats generally do not expect Harris to surpass Trump on this key issue but hope that she can close the considerable gap observed between Trump and Biden prior to July.
The New York Times/Siena poll indicates that Trump led by 13 points in terms of which candidate respondents trust to manage the economy, with 55 percent supporting Trump and 42 percent favoring Harris.
Harris’s objective will be to reduce this gap to single digits between now and Election Day. Notably, in the 2020 exit poll, both Biden and Trump were equally trusted by voters on this vital issue.
Regarding the country’s direction:
- On June 27: 25 percent right direction, 65 percent wrong track
- On Aug. 14: 25 percent right direction, 65 percent wrong track
- Now: 27 percent right direction, 63 percent wrong track
Public sentiment about the nation's trajectory remains largely negative, and Harris might gain from any further improvements.
Among Harris voters, 56 percent view the country as moving in the right direction according to the New York Times/Siena College poll, while nearly all Trump voters—89 percent—believe the nation is going down the wrong path.
Interestingly, 28 percent of Harris’s supporters felt that the country is on the wrong track, indicating that her support extends beyond those who are currently satisfied with the state of affairs.
This context may explain why the vice president aims to adopt a “change” narrative, even as a member of the current administration. Convincing voters of this message will be challenging; the New York Times/Siena College poll found that only 40 percent believe she represents “major” or “minor” change versus 61 percent who feel the same about Trump.
This focus on change will likely feature prominently in her debate strategy, highlighted by the multi-state, post-debate campaign initiative her campaign announced earlier, titled the “New Way Forward Tour.”
Sophie Wagner contributed to this report for TROIB News
Almost a month ago, PMG highlighted five critical indicators to track the election's direction, moving beyond just the Harris-Trump matchup. Analyzing these indicators with new polling data indicates that while Harris has experienced a slowdown in momentum, she still enjoys increasing popularity. Additionally, Democratic voters appear significantly more energized compared to the period when President Joe Biden was leading the ticket.
However, the race remains remarkably close.
While Trump held a 2-point advantage in a poll from The New York Times/Siena College released on Sunday, Harris averages a national lead between 1 and 3 percentage points. This narrow margin places Harris's current national lead closer to Hillary Clinton’s insufficient 2-point popular-vote win in 2016 than to Biden’s 4-point victory in 2020.
The battleground states also reveal extreme competitiveness. In three prominent polling averages—RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin—each of the seven contested states falls within a 3-point range either way. Harris’s strongest lead is seen in Wisconsin, while Trump’s most significant advantage is in Arizona.
A closer look reveals the reasons behind Harris's ability to narrow the gap, suggesting that neither candidate has gained a clear edge going into Tuesday’s debate.
Kamala Harris' favorable rating has seen an uptick:
- On June 27: 39 percent
- On Aug. 14: 45 percent
- Now: 48 percent
Americans have begun to reassess Harris since her ascension to the top of the ticket, though this surge of support seems to have plateaued for the moment.
Voter sentiment shows that roughly the same number of voters hold a favorable view of Harris as view her unfavorably. This polarized perception is not overwhelming but is relatively encouraging for a political figure today. Moreover, it positions her as slightly more favorable than Trump, whose average rating is 44 percent.
Interestingly, The New York Times/Siena College poll revealed nearly identical favorable/unfavorable ratings: 46 percent favorable/51 percent unfavorable for Harris, and 46 percent favorable/52 percent unfavorable for Trump. Yet, broader findings indicate a slight favorability edge for Harris.
Harris is facing both risk and potential reward in Tuesday’s debate. While 90 percent of surveyed voters feel they know enough about Trump, only 71 percent express the same familiarity with Harris. This gap suggests that her numbers could shift dramatically based on her performance, whereas Trump’s ratings are likely to remain stable.
The share of votes for third-party candidates has experienced significant change:
- July 21: 12.2 points
- Aug. 14: 7.1 points
- Now: 3 points
The 2024 election was initially expected to see high levels of third-party voting, but that trend has drastically declined following the Democratic candidate switch and the end of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign.
Currently, some polls—like the New York Times/Siena College poll—omit Kennedy from their options altogether. Among the 10 polls contributing to the RealClearPolitics average, only three included Kennedy's name.
Increased satisfaction with the major-party candidates, combined with the lesser recognition of alternative options, has led to a marked decrease in interest in third-party contenders. In the New York Times/Siena College poll, Libertarian Chase Oliver received 2 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein garnered 1 percent. Notably, neither Kennedy nor Cornel West was presented as a voting option, with fewer than 1 percent of likely voters voluntarily mentioning either.
Kennedy once had the potential to qualify for the debate stage. He needed to achieve 15 percent in four qualifying polls from early August to early September—an ambitious but feasible goal based on his earlier standing this year. While he secured three qualifying polls for the Biden-Trump June debate, he could not meet the ballot access criteria for that matchup.
Examining voter enthusiasm:
- Democrats who are “very enthusiastic”: 72 percent
- Republicans who are “very enthusiastic”: 69 percent
As seen in last month’s state polls, Democrats have caught up to Republicans in the enthusiasm gap, which had previously favored Republicans when Biden was their candidate.
Currently, both parties are nearly tied on enthusiasm levels, as are the two candidates. An equal percentage of Harris and Trump voters described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about participating in the upcoming November election in the poll conducted by The Times.
This enthusiasm translates to voting intentions: 63 percent of likely Democratic voters reported being “almost certain” to vote, compared to 61 percent of Republicans. This sentiment holds true among supporters of both candidates, with 62 percent of Harris voters and 58 percent of Trump voters expressing that they are “almost certain” to cast their ballots.
In terms of economic perception:
- July: Trump 52 percent, Harris 40 percent
- Now: Trump 51 percent, Harris 43 percent
Perceptions surrounding the economy continue to be a significant issue for voters, providing Trump with a consistent advantage.
Democrats generally do not expect Harris to surpass Trump on this key issue but hope that she can close the considerable gap observed between Trump and Biden prior to July.
The New York Times/Siena poll indicates that Trump led by 13 points in terms of which candidate respondents trust to manage the economy, with 55 percent supporting Trump and 42 percent favoring Harris.
Harris’s objective will be to reduce this gap to single digits between now and Election Day. Notably, in the 2020 exit poll, both Biden and Trump were equally trusted by voters on this vital issue.
Regarding the country’s direction:
- On June 27: 25 percent right direction, 65 percent wrong track
- On Aug. 14: 25 percent right direction, 65 percent wrong track
- Now: 27 percent right direction, 63 percent wrong track
Public sentiment about the nation's trajectory remains largely negative, and Harris might gain from any further improvements.
Among Harris voters, 56 percent view the country as moving in the right direction according to the New York Times/Siena College poll, while nearly all Trump voters—89 percent—believe the nation is going down the wrong path.
Interestingly, 28 percent of Harris’s supporters felt that the country is on the wrong track, indicating that her support extends beyond those who are currently satisfied with the state of affairs.
This context may explain why the vice president aims to adopt a “change” narrative, even as a member of the current administration. Convincing voters of this message will be challenging; the New York Times/Siena College poll found that only 40 percent believe she represents “major” or “minor” change versus 61 percent who feel the same about Trump.
This focus on change will likely feature prominently in her debate strategy, highlighted by the multi-state, post-debate campaign initiative her campaign announced earlier, titled the “New Way Forward Tour.”
Sophie Wagner contributed to this report for TROIB News
