Biden's Strategy for Endurance: Counter 'Elite' Opposition, Garner Support from His Core Base

NEW ORLEANS — Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) ignited the crowd at Essence Fest, a yearly event featuring prominent Black figures, on Saturday. She delivered a firm statement: “There won’t be any other Democratic candidate — it’s going to be Biden.”

Perhaps what holds more weight is the private engagement Waters undertook a day earlier to rally support for the president. During a conference call with other members of the Congressional Black Caucus, the experienced 85-year-old Congresswoman encouraged colleagues to back Joe Biden, subtly signaling to the younger members not to lose conviction, according to a participant in the call.

As Biden grapples with obstacles threatening his political career this week, along with increasing calls from party leaders for him to concede his candidacy, he's banking on African American Democrats and trade union allies as his last line of defense. This is a familiar strategy for Biden, who often paints his critics as predominantly white liberals who fail to align with the party's more diverse, working-class base. This very approach salvaged his nomination following numerous initial setbacks in 2020.

It is now his sole lifeline for political survival.

If Biden can maintain his alliances in labor and the Black community, he’ll have a shot at reframing the contentious debate surrounding his candidacy along race and class lines, which have been a cornerstone of every Democratic nomination dispute for the past 40 years. Unlike previous contests contested in primaries and caucuses, this battle is unfolding in a more tumultuous and rapid manner via group texts, conference calls, Zooms, and the media.

The Biden team is assuredly hoping for a repeat of outcomes seen in their previous campaigns for 2024: the affluent may have their chosen candidate, but ultimately, it falls to older Black women in church congregations to determine the nominee.

This explains Biden's personal appearance at an African American church in Philadelphia on Sunday, his planned address to the NAACP convention next week in Las Vegas, and ad-hoc engagements with diverse groups of lawmakers and residents of Washington, D.C. amid NATO meetings this week.

According to Anita Dunn, Biden's long-term adviser, "The individuals whom Joe Biden champions — middle-class labor union members, Blacks, Latinos — recognize his support and will stay in his corner."

Biden's campaign co-chair, Cedric Richmond, a former New Orleans Congressperson, was even more direct.

"It's noteworthy that no African American congressional member has urged the president to step down,” Richmond noted, warning white lawmakers of the potential alienation of their voter base if they withdraw support from Biden.

Richmond also criticizes the haste with which some lawmakers, specifically Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), are attempting to convince Biden to exit the race.

Following interactions with Democratic staff and elected officials over the weekend, it became evident that while the president's financial supporters have mostly given up on him, grassroots Democrats are less disillusioned and more focused on the failures of former President Donald Trump.

"Individuals such as my mother, people in her demographic, support Biden," Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin noted, urging fellow Democrats to stick with the base and the president.

A union leader from the building trades sector informed me that the chatter in Washington around Biden's future differs significantly from what he hears from local, steadfastly pro-Biden union members.

The gulf in messaging between insiders and voters is also apparent to Congressional members back home for the July 4 holiday.

A House Democrat from a competitive district, initially ready to ask Biden to withdraw, refrained after realizing the lack of constituent support for such a request.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), another co-chair of Biden's campaign, told me he was overwhelmed with messages from individuals strongly supporting the president and encouraging him to stay in the race. However, he also heard from those with concerns and made sure to convey these to the president.

During a call between Biden and his campaign co-chairs, Coons described receiving conflicting texts: One from a long-term contributor suggesting Biden drop out, and another from a Black female friend encouraging continued support for Biden.

It seems clear which message resonated more with the president.

Biden may find validation in elitist approval; yet, he is most at home donning the guise of "Scranton Joe." This scenario echoes Bill Clinton’s strategy in the wake of impeachment and condemnation from high-brow Democrats, during which he turned to the party's base and particularly Black Americans in challenging times.

However, the situation is not a mirror image of the past. There are risks associated with Biden reverting to his base. Many Democrats, including African Americans, think Biden might be too aged for the role.

Moreover, the implications could be disastrous if a national union or even one Black lawmaker suggests that Biden bow out. If a collective of unions or Black elected officials decide to pull support, it could be devastating.

The absence of any Black representation among the ranking House Democrats, who used a confidential Sunday conference call to vocalize their preference for Biden to step down, was glaringly obvious to everyone in the White House and on Capitol Hill.

The real concern for the president is not whether he can maintain the old guard’s support, but rather whether he can hold the allegiance of younger lawmakers and those from more contested districts. These individuals have no strong generational or political ties to Biden.

Another risk lies for Biden in the delicate situation of his bet on his Black supporters; namely, that they will remain loyal when his likely replacement would be a history-making Black woman, Vice President Kamala Harris.

On Sunday, I spoke with Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), who is considerably perturbed over the damage he thinks his apprehensive colleagues are inflicting upon Biden.

Before ending our conversation, Scott made one final point, “If Biden exits, the shift to Harris must be seamless." Scott dismissed any notion that there would be a collective and harmonious discussion about potential alternatives, labeling such ideators as “senile."

This scenario crystallizes Biden's dilemma. His most loyal supporters traditionally have been blue-collar Democrats and their representatives who generally align more with him than with the wealthy elite. However, this time around, turning away from Biden does not mean switching to Pete Buttigieg or Bernie Sanders. The alternate choice would very likely be Vice President Harris, Biden’s own selection for a running mate. This is the profound irony of our times. If Biden is compelled to step aside, he may have inadvertently been the architect of his own demise.

Without Harris as prospective successor, people like Bobby Scott would have shut down the conversation by calling on his white colleagues to stay on message.

Presently, Scott recalled a remark he made about Harris’s readiness for the role when asked during a recent assembly. Referring back to a debate line about "Black jobs", Scott responded, “I said, 'Well, for three-and-a-half years her Black job as vice president of the United States has been to be ready.’”

Lucas Dupont for TROIB News