Exploring Trump’s Electoral Stronghold
If the former president secures victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, which are key states on the East Coast, he will return to the White House.
TroibNews 
PHILADELPHIA — The presidential election will ultimately come down to three pivotal states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
For Vice President Kamala Harris, the path forward hinges on her performance in Pennsylvania; if she cannot win there, her only hope lies in a strategy focused on the South. Harris must secure either Georgia or North Carolina to have any chance at the presidency. The outcome could become clear soon after polls close in the eastern time zone.
While the other four battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona — hold significance, they become irrelevant if Trump successfully blocks Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. If she fails in Pennsylvania, a state where her aides have acknowledged the challenges, she would need to capture one Western state along with one Southern state, assuming she holds Michigan and Wisconsin.
The straightforward strategy for Trump underscores the advantages afforded to Republicans by the Electoral College. If he manages to defeat Harris in Pennsylvania, where President Joe Biden won by a mere 80,000 votes, her prospects will depend on the slightly conservative North Carolina and Georgia, both of which have only supported Democrats once in this century.
“It comes down to seven battleground states, you got to win four of them in order to carry it,” Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley stated. “Except if you win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, then that’s going to get you over the hump.”
Trump’s advertising efforts reflect his emphasis on these three states, with significant spending concentrated in Pennsylvania, given its vital importance and six media markets. His spending in Georgia is also substantial, and last week he invested $17 million in North Carolina, a state where his advertising presence had previously been limited.
“With big reservations coming in for North Carolina, I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a big reservation coming in next from one of the Trump super PACs,” noted Kurt Pickhardt, a GOP media consultant, referencing data from National Media Insights, a Republican-affiliated media intelligence agency. “He’s trying to block off her Southern route.”
This strategy is not lost on Harris’s team.
“From inference you can see where they’re thinking their bread is buttered,” said Quentin Fulks, the vice president’s deputy campaign manager.
Both campaigns recognize that while Trump’s route to 270 electoral votes is clear, Harris has more options than Biden did. Before suspending his campaign in July, Biden was expected to rely on a strategy focused solely on the Great Lakes, depending on retaining states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In contrast, Harris has a potential safety net in the South, which may be crucial given Trump’s consistent lead in Pennsylvania polling, even before last week's debate.
Democratic internal polling reveals why Pennsylvania poses a particular challenge. A recent survey in Rep. Susan Wild’s Lehigh Valley district, one of the most competitive areas in the state, indicated that Harris was trailing by just one point.
However, a narrow loss in Pennsylvania could become irrelevant if Harris successfully connects with key demographics in the South, particularly Black men and moderate Republicans.
Harris used her debate performance strategically, addressing Trump’s past race-baiting comments and highlighting his attempts at undermining her. This visibility aims to reduce Trump’s modest yet critical support among Black men and push his overall backing from Black voters closer to single digits.
Furthermore, the location chosen by former Rep. Liz Cheney to announce her support for Harris—North Carolina’s Duke University—was intentional. Harris's campaign is directing substantial efforts toward appealing to “soft Republicans,” voters who may have supported George W. Bush but are hesitant about endorsing a Democrat they do not know well.
As has been the case repeatedly throughout his political career, Trump is unintentionally aiding his opponents in both Southern states.
His ongoing conflict with Brian Kemp, Georgia’s popular Republican governor, continues to fester, and despite efforts to mediate the situation, tensions remain high. Trump has not returned to Georgia since August 3, following a rally where he harshly criticized Kemp, aggravating local Republicans.
This state of affairs concerns party officials, and while Kemp’s allies desire more support from Trump, they were encouraged by Sen. JD Vance's praise for the governor during an event they attended together in Georgia.
Despite this, former Vice President Mike Pence’s attempts to reconcile relationships among Republicans at odds with Trump have had little impact on the former president’s behavior.
Georgia Republicans are particularly focused on Cobb County, a historically Republican area that has leaned Democratic recently. The way Harris performs there could mirror either Sen. Raphael Warnock’s 17-point victory or Stacey Abrams’s tighter race against Kemp, determining the outcome in Georgia.
In North Carolina, Trump has unwittingly aided Democratic chances by promoting a gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has a history of making controversial statements, especially regarding women. This has raised hopes among North Carolina Democrats for mobilizing moderate voters to support a straight Democratic ticket.
The contentious remarks made by Vance and other Republican candidates have further reinforced the perception that they may drive female voters away, making North Carolina a more attainable goal for Democrats.
Harris's team has grown increasingly optimistic about North Carolina, viewing it as nearly as winnable as Georgia, despite the state having a smaller Black voter population. However, seasoned North Carolina Democrats remain cautious, reflecting on past narrow losses in presidential and Senate races since 2008.
As articulated by one prominent Tar Heel Democrat, "I like her momentum, but he's got the fundamentals."
Nonetheless, as Vance remarked during a recent visit to Greenville, “It’s very hard for us to win unless we’re able to get North Carolina.”
Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News
For Vice President Kamala Harris, the path forward hinges on her performance in Pennsylvania; if she cannot win there, her only hope lies in a strategy focused on the South. Harris must secure either Georgia or North Carolina to have any chance at the presidency. The outcome could become clear soon after polls close in the eastern time zone.
While the other four battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona — hold significance, they become irrelevant if Trump successfully blocks Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. If she fails in Pennsylvania, a state where her aides have acknowledged the challenges, she would need to capture one Western state along with one Southern state, assuming she holds Michigan and Wisconsin.
The straightforward strategy for Trump underscores the advantages afforded to Republicans by the Electoral College. If he manages to defeat Harris in Pennsylvania, where President Joe Biden won by a mere 80,000 votes, her prospects will depend on the slightly conservative North Carolina and Georgia, both of which have only supported Democrats once in this century.
“It comes down to seven battleground states, you got to win four of them in order to carry it,” Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley stated. “Except if you win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, then that’s going to get you over the hump.”
Trump’s advertising efforts reflect his emphasis on these three states, with significant spending concentrated in Pennsylvania, given its vital importance and six media markets. His spending in Georgia is also substantial, and last week he invested $17 million in North Carolina, a state where his advertising presence had previously been limited.
“With big reservations coming in for North Carolina, I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a big reservation coming in next from one of the Trump super PACs,” noted Kurt Pickhardt, a GOP media consultant, referencing data from National Media Insights, a Republican-affiliated media intelligence agency. “He’s trying to block off her Southern route.”
This strategy is not lost on Harris’s team.
“From inference you can see where they’re thinking their bread is buttered,” said Quentin Fulks, the vice president’s deputy campaign manager.
Both campaigns recognize that while Trump’s route to 270 electoral votes is clear, Harris has more options than Biden did. Before suspending his campaign in July, Biden was expected to rely on a strategy focused solely on the Great Lakes, depending on retaining states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In contrast, Harris has a potential safety net in the South, which may be crucial given Trump’s consistent lead in Pennsylvania polling, even before last week's debate.
Democratic internal polling reveals why Pennsylvania poses a particular challenge. A recent survey in Rep. Susan Wild’s Lehigh Valley district, one of the most competitive areas in the state, indicated that Harris was trailing by just one point.
However, a narrow loss in Pennsylvania could become irrelevant if Harris successfully connects with key demographics in the South, particularly Black men and moderate Republicans.
Harris used her debate performance strategically, addressing Trump’s past race-baiting comments and highlighting his attempts at undermining her. This visibility aims to reduce Trump’s modest yet critical support among Black men and push his overall backing from Black voters closer to single digits.
Furthermore, the location chosen by former Rep. Liz Cheney to announce her support for Harris—North Carolina’s Duke University—was intentional. Harris's campaign is directing substantial efforts toward appealing to “soft Republicans,” voters who may have supported George W. Bush but are hesitant about endorsing a Democrat they do not know well.
As has been the case repeatedly throughout his political career, Trump is unintentionally aiding his opponents in both Southern states.
His ongoing conflict with Brian Kemp, Georgia’s popular Republican governor, continues to fester, and despite efforts to mediate the situation, tensions remain high. Trump has not returned to Georgia since August 3, following a rally where he harshly criticized Kemp, aggravating local Republicans.
This state of affairs concerns party officials, and while Kemp’s allies desire more support from Trump, they were encouraged by Sen. JD Vance's praise for the governor during an event they attended together in Georgia.
Despite this, former Vice President Mike Pence’s attempts to reconcile relationships among Republicans at odds with Trump have had little impact on the former president’s behavior.
Georgia Republicans are particularly focused on Cobb County, a historically Republican area that has leaned Democratic recently. The way Harris performs there could mirror either Sen. Raphael Warnock’s 17-point victory or Stacey Abrams’s tighter race against Kemp, determining the outcome in Georgia.
In North Carolina, Trump has unwittingly aided Democratic chances by promoting a gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has a history of making controversial statements, especially regarding women. This has raised hopes among North Carolina Democrats for mobilizing moderate voters to support a straight Democratic ticket.
The contentious remarks made by Vance and other Republican candidates have further reinforced the perception that they may drive female voters away, making North Carolina a more attainable goal for Democrats.
Harris's team has grown increasingly optimistic about North Carolina, viewing it as nearly as winnable as Georgia, despite the state having a smaller Black voter population. However, seasoned North Carolina Democrats remain cautious, reflecting on past narrow losses in presidential and Senate races since 2008.
As articulated by one prominent Tar Heel Democrat, "I like her momentum, but he's got the fundamentals."
Nonetheless, as Vance remarked during a recent visit to Greenville, “It’s very hard for us to win unless we’re able to get North Carolina.”
Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News
