2022’s Most Unexpected Winners and Losers

Generally, we don’t like to endorse zero-sum views of the world, but it was hard to miss the seesaw effect at play across the political landscape of 2022.

So we offer for your amusement (or annoyance, depending on your political priors) 11 sets of paired winners and losers — the people, ideas and movements that soared or stumbled in 2022.

1

WINNER

Polls

The 2022 midterms vindicated pollsters who had been under scrutiny ever since they wrongly predicted Hillary Clinton would win against Donald Trump in 2016. Despite anticipations of a “red wave,” nonpartisan polls like Siena College/New York Times and FiveThirtyEight found that the Senate race would be far more competitive than people expected — and they were ultimately right. Democrats celebrated a surprising win, maintaining control of the Senate and losing far fewer House seats than expected. Pollsters like Simon Rosenberg who were mocked for claiming the red wave was a mirage now claim the right to say “I told you so” and tout that polling is, in fact, not dead yet.

LOSER

Pundits

Pundits were supposed to learn their lesson after 2016 — to get a grip on what America outside of the Beltway was actually thinking and avoid confirmation bias happening inside newsrooms and Hill offices. They might have swung too far the other way in 2022, pushing a narrative of “real America” that didn’t actually exist. To wit: They doubted abortion would drive people to the polls, but voters showed up in droves to vote for women’s rights. They pushed the narrative of a red wave driven by inflation, crime and immigration, but Democrats instead had a historically good election night. It shows that despite their soul-searching journey since the last election cycle, pundits have yet to emerge fully from a Washington echo chamber that often reinforces their analysis.

2

WINNER

Elections

The shadow of 2020’s election denialism loomed large over the midterm as Republican candidates like Kari Lake and Doug Mastriano won their primaries, even after stumping on unfounded claims of election fraud. And yet, at the end of the day, elections — and trust in the system — prevailed. There was no violence at the polls nor widespread claims of election fraud. Many of the election deniers that were seeking top election official positions in battleground states lost. And even more impressively, those candidates accepted their defeat, acknowledging that their opponents won fair and square. Nov. 8, 2022 felt like a normal Election Day — and that in itself is a win.

LOSER

Institutions

Americans’ trust in institutions is at a record low and who’s to blame? Families have had to tighten their belts due to high inflation. The Supreme Court overturned a precedent that a majority of people wanted to keep in place. Violent crime is rising in major cities. And the pandemic still looms in the background of daily life. It’s no surprise that people’s confidence in the three branches of government is particularly low: the Supreme Court is at 25 percent, the presidency at 23 percent and Congress at 7 percent, according to a Gallup poll. Sadly, confidence in the media’s ability to document major current events is also dropping.

3

WINNER

The Spirit of George Marshall

Trans-Atlantic relations took a hit during the Trump years when the former president threatened privately and repeatedly to withdraw from NATO. Joe Biden is a true believer in the treaty and its obligations, but his administration also lost some standing with allies after the hasty Afghanistan withdrawal. What a difference an actual war in Europe can make when it comes to restoring the bonds of mutual defense that have guided the members since post-World War II. That’s when Gen. George Marshall, who became secretary of State, conceived the eponymous plan to put the continent back together again and kept it peaceful and prosperous. Russian President Vladimir Putin has long hoped to drive a wedge between the members, but NATO has stood strong in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine — the opposite of what he wanted.

LOSER

The Ghost of Catherine the Great

Before launching his ill-considered invasion of Ukraine, Putin issued a twisted history essay that essentially dressed up his aggression as an attempt to restore a version of a Russian Empire that dated back to Catherine the Great. Catherine, originally a Prussian princess, denied that Ukraine existed, dubbing it “Little Russia” as she subsumed the region and its peoples into her overextended empire in the 18th century. In the 21st century, Ukraine made clear it wasn’t going to let Putin get away with the same trick. Even if the war is far from over, Ukraine’s vigorous defense of its territory has made it very clear — to Putin and to the rest of the world — that it most assuredly does exist.

4

WINNER

Pro-fish politicians

In November, two Democrats won election to the House in red districts by talking about … fish. Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola prevailed in a ranked-choice-voting election, leaning into her background supporting Alaska’s fishermen. The first sentence of her “story” on her website reads: “I’m a Yup’ik Alaska Native, salmon advocate, and Democrat.” Note her partisan affiliation comes after her fishing policy. In Maine’s 2nd District, Jared Golden won his own RCV election by boldly challenging Joe Biden on his promises to Maine’s fishermen. “You cannot espouse being a president for working people while simultaneously overseeing the destruction of an entire blue-collar fishery,” he wrote to the president in October. Immigration and crime might have dominated the national discussion but these races reminded us how much local issues — especially economic ones — still matter to voters.

LOSER

Crypto politicians

New York Mayor Eric Adams has taken a bath on his gambit to take his first three paychecks in crypto. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who called his city the “capital of crypto,” is presiding over the capital of the crash. Blake Masters promoted crypto during his doomed run for Arizona Senate, while Andrew Yang wants to make his dead-on-arrival Forward Party “the crypto party.” In the wake of the FTX crash that lost an estimated $8 billion of its customers’ assets, Congress is finally seriously talking about regulation in the sector. As the industry falters, so do the politicians who are its leading evangelists.

5

WINNER

Gen Z

A generation of voters 25-and-under left their mark on 2022. Midterm exit polls suggest that Gen-Z was the only generation to overwhelmingly support Democrats in the midterms, and they managed to turn out in numbers large enough that they staved off a red wave and made the difference for Democrats in close Senate races in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada. Gen-Z is also sending one of its own to Congress for the first time, in Maxwell Frost, the political neophyte from Florida who was still driving for Uber during his campaign to make ends meet. The youngest voting generation now has some political might within the Democratic Party. We’ll see what they can do with it.

LOSER

Gerontocrats

After decades in power and a rash of unflattering coverage about the age of America’s political leaders, some of them are being shown the door. The triumvirate of House Democratic leadership in Reps. Nancy Pelosi (82), Steny Hoyer (83) and Jim Clyburn (82) are all stepping aside for fresher faces. And the jockeying is already beginning to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein (89), who has faced multiple news reports about her deteriorating cognitive abilities, when her term is up. On the Republican side, their most famous gerontocrat, Donald Trump (76), looks weakened after poor midterm results, but Sen. Chuck Grassley (89) just won another term and will become the Senate’s longest-serving member after the retirement of Patrick Leahy (82) at the end of the year. The big remaining question: Will the gerontocrat in the White House (80) seek another term himself?

6

WINNER

2024 Governors

Historically, governors have been more successful at winning presidential nominations than other elected officials, but since 2004, no governor has made it out of the primary in a presidential election. Now, after a deadly pandemic revealed the importance of state-level management, governors are back. Florida Gov.Ron DeSantis is the only potential 2024 candidate getting close to Donald Trump in polls. A handful of Democratic governors fared well in the midterms, too. Gavin Newsom of California beat back a recall attempt in 2021 and won reelection in 2022 with 59.2 percent of the vote. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won by double digits in a swing state. Gov. Jared Polis won by almost 20 points in Colorado. If President Joe Biden chooses not to run (a big if, for sure), 2024 could be the year that two governors emerge from the primaries, with one of them ultimately landing in the White House.

LOSER

Blue-city Mayors

After surges in population and tax revenues that seemed unstoppable throughout the early 2000s and 2010s, cities are faltering as the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic reshape the country. Remote work has driven down commercial real estate values and tax bases.Homelessness,crime and — yes —rats have surged. Mayors, especially in the deep-blue megalopolises on the coasts, are struggling. By June, New York Mayor Eric Adams saw his approval rating slide to 29 percent. In October,San Francisco Mayor London Breed had an approval rating of 36 percent. The problems in cities don’t seem to be abating. In December, new Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, in her inaugural speech, announced her first priority would be to declare a state of emergency to tackle homelessness.

7

WINNER

Ranked-choice voting

Once derided as too weird to gain wide acceptance, RCV’s much-touted ability to tamp down partisanship and reward centrists got a boost in Alaska when it helped knock out former Republican Gov. Sarah Palin in the House race and kept Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski in office. Notably, Murkowski was one of the only Republicans who supported Donald Trump’s impeachment to survive the primary and general election cycle. Alaska is one of two states (the other is Maine) that use RCV. Twenty-five states have RCV legislation under consideration. Throw a host of open primary states into the discussion and a definite trend emerges that shows voters are looking for ways out of the two-party primary trap that so often incentivizes extremists.

LOSER

Culture War Ads

The Stephen Miller-run group America First Legal pumped tens of millions of dollars into anti-transgender ad campaigns during the midterms. “The Biden administration is pushing radical gender experiments on children,” the narrator says in one radio spot. “Tell Joe Biden and left-wing leaders across America, ‘Hands off our kids.’” Voters’ response was a resounding “Hands off our elections.” In Michigan, one of the states that endured the most relentless ad barrage, Democrats won the governor’s race, the attorney general’s race and flipped — albeit narrowly — the state Legislature for the first time in decades. One of those state legislators is Mallory McMorrow, who vaulted to national attention whenshe fought back against allegations that she was “grooming and sexualizing children” with a viral speech from the state Senate floor.

8

WINNER

Mediators

In a political world dominated by dug-in, bomb-throwing extremists, the middle ground is often the least advantageous place to be. But the midterms, with their surprisingly close victory for the GOP in the House, have suddenly placed a dwindling number of centrists in an unexpectedly influential position. The perennially mocked Problem Solvers Caucus, made up of several dozen Democrats and Republicans, is about to play a role its members have long craved: go-to negotiators in a Congress where any piece of important legislation will require some level of bipartisan support for passage.

LOSER

Conspiracists

2022 was a truly rotten year for people with a conspiratorial bent. It got so miserable toward the end it almost seemed as if the world was out to get them. A quick summary of the annus horribilis for the paranoiac crowd: The Jan. 6 committee showcased some riveting examples of 2020 election deniers behaving badly. Leaders of the Oath Keepers militia are headed to prison for seditious conspiracy for showing up at the Capitol armed to the teeth. Prominent and unabashed antisemites were shunned by the public (Ye, formerly known as Kanye West) and politicians who spread antisemitic tropes on the campaign trail (Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano) were trounced at the polls.

9

WINNER

Book bans

In 2022, conservative candidates and parents’ rights organizations such as Moms for Liberty drove a surge in book bans in public libraries and school districts. According to a report from PEN America, in the year ending in June 2022 there had been “2,532 instances of individual books being banned, affecting 1,648 unique titles” — some 40 percent of them books that address LGBTQ issues. The American Library Association recorded some 1,600 attempts to ban books in the first six months of 2022, exceeding the total for the whole of the preceding year (1,597), which was also the highest number since the group began recording that number more than 20 years ago. The volume notwithstanding, it was unclear whether the book bans were part of a winning political playbook. While Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had aligned themselves with the parents’ rights movement, coasted to reelection, gubernatorial candidates who had supported it lost elections in less red states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas and Maine.

LOSER

Abortion bans

In the summer, when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, it was tough to argue that abortion rights were winning in 2022. But what came next showed that the majority of Americans are just not in favor of full or final abortion bans — even in red states. Soon after abortion rights were kicked back to the states in June, Kansas held a referendum on whether to amend the state constitution to clarify that it does not protect the right to abortion, thus allowing the Legislature to restrict it. The measure failed overwhelmingly. Later, in the midterms, five states voted to protect abortion rights, including in the red or swing states of Kentucky, Michigan and Montana.

10

WINNER

The Old Right

The Republican establishment is back. OK, not really, but it was the Old Right — the GOP’s few remaining moderates and the conservatives who bucked Donald Trump — that largely did best in the midterms. Mike Lawler stunned the House Democrats’ campaign chief in suburban New York after distancing himself from the Jan. 6 insurrection. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp coasted to victory after he resisted Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election results. And GOP Rep. David Valadao fended off a primary challenge after voting to impeach Trump and then narrowly held on to his Biden-won California district in November. These figures are not the dominant force in the Republican Party by any means, but they showed an alternative path to Trumpism was still viable.

LOSER

The New Right

In our not-quite-post-Trump era, the future of the Republican Party is up for grabs, and one faction in particular has seemed to be on the rise: The New Right. Skeptical of intervention in Ukraine and disdainful of cultural elites and Big Tech, it’s a populist-nationalist ideology that is Trumpian in many respects, but whose biggest patron is Peter Thiel. The Silicon Valley billionaire spent tens of millions of dollars in the midterms to elevate his chosen candidates, only to come up short in key contests. Sure, he helped J.D. Vance win a Senate seat in Ohio, but the far-right congressional hopeful Joe Kent went down in an upset, and worst of all was the defeat of Thiel protégé Blake Masters in the Arizona Senate race. Thiel was reportedly crushed by Masters’ loss and is pulling back from campaigns, at least for now. The New Right surely isn’t going away, but it’s definitely limping. 

11

WINNER

Unions

Big Labor has the Big Mo. Union membership has been declining for decades, but labor organizers are now securing toeholds in some of the most important, and most union-resistant, companies in the country — Amazon, Starbucks, Apple and more. Unions can also boast more public support, a 71 percent approval rating, than they have since 1965. One of the biggest boosters is a White House occupant who vows to be “the most pro-union president” in history. That didn’t stop Joe Biden from forcing rail workers to agree to a contract without the paid sick leave they wanted. The workers’ paradise is still a work in progress, but amid tight labor markets, high inflation and the lingering effects of the pandemic, workers have more leverage than ever and took a few steps forward in 2022.

LOSER

Billionaires

If you have (or claim to have) at least a 10-digit bank account, chances are that 2022 was not your favorite year. And mostly it was your own damn fault. Elon Musk lost his title as world’s richest person after the value of Tesla stock plummeted — stemming in part from his erratic, embarrassing reign over Twitter. Fellow tech titan Mark Zuckerberg is struggling to turn his dreams of a Metaverse into a reality and had to lay off a whopping 11,000 employees amid declining revenue. Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced wunderkind cryptocurrency trader, was indicted for fraud, money laundering and campaign finance violations. And Donald Trump saw his own namesake business, the Trump Organization, get convicted on charges of criminal tax fraud, with more legal problems on the horizon. And that’s not even getting into Trump’s floundering presidential bid.