‘You don’t get red-pilled overnight’: California’s political figures discuss the events of 2024
An analyst noted that the significant decline in turnout compared to 2020 is “in and of itself, a political statement.”
TroibNews 
With the aftermath of the 2024 California election still unfolding, the state's major political figures are beginning to analyze the mixed results that reflected a significant drop in voter turnout.
California exhibited a subdued version of the nationwide rightward shift, with Republicans gaining ground by capitalizing on issues like crime and the state’s escalating cost of living. Donald Trump lost to Kamala Harris by double digits, yet his defeat was narrower than in previous elections. He successfully flipped 10 counties red, and the state GOP managed to secure three legislative seats despite being outspent significantly.
Conversely, California emerged as a bright spot for national Democrats, who celebrated their success in unseating three incumbent GOP Congress members and retaining a contentious vacant seat, adding to the slim Republican majority that will present challenges for Speaker Mike Johnson.
“California showed up and delivered what it was supposed to deliver, and that is, return two members of Congress, hold a seat and flip three Republican seats from red to blue,” Rusty Hicks, chair of the state Democratic Party, stated. “And in 2026, my guess is we'll be asked to do a bit more. We want to do the analysis to make sure that we are in position to do exactly that.”
Given California’s vast, diverse, and politically unique landscape, comprehensive analyses will require time to develop.
Nonetheless, some initial insights are beginning to emerge. In several competitive regions, Democratic campaigns effectively engaged voters to counter national trends, while Republicans advanced through ballot initiatives, and the state’s affordability issues disenchanted Latino voters. These dynamics could significantly influence the 2026 elections when California will elect a new governor and address several battleground House races.
PMG spoke with key players in California politics, including leadership from both state parties, Planned Parenthood representatives, and an expert on the state's Latino demographics, to gather their thoughts on the 2024 election outcomes and the lingering questions that remain.
Not voting is ‘a political statement’ The rightward trend among Latino voters is a broader national occurrence, yet it bears particular significance in California, where the backlash against Proposition 187—a measure aimed at immigrants—previously swung Latino support firmly toward the Democrats. As time passes, this era appears to be waning, with a poll commissioned by Republican consultant Mike Madrid shedding light on the situation.
The post-election survey, executed by Democratic pollster David Binder, revealed that concerns over affordability and high living costs are paramount among California’s Latino voters, who feel that the Democratic-led government is failing to address these issues.
More than three-quarters of respondents indicated that state government policies were exacerbating high prices. While 53 percent disapproved of the government's handling of the economy, including employment and living costs, only 44 percent approved.
Despite this dissatisfaction with Democrats, the poll did not reveal a surge in Republican popularity. A slight majority felt the state’s Democrats could adequately represent their needs, whereas fewer than 40 percent expressed similar confidence in Republicans. Respondents indicated by a 24-point margin that Democrats better understood their community than Republicans.
This suggests that California’s apparent shift toward red was less about increased support for Republicans and more about a steep decline in Democratic voter participation.
Harris received 1.8 million fewer votes than Joe Biden did four years ago, a decline that proved far more impactful than the 75,000 additional votes Trump garnered compared to his 2020 bid. Madrid suggested that a significant portion of voters missing this time were Latinos.
“I really want people to understand that the lack of voting, the lack of civic engagement, is in and of itself a political statement,” Madrid shared with members of a Los Angeles business group, where he discussed the poll results.
In an interview, Madrid elaborated that Latino voters still regard Democrats as the party that comprehends their needs, but they lack faith in the party’s ability to deliver tangible results.
“They finally left the bad relationship where this person is telling them over and over, ‘I understand you. I get your needs. I hear what you’re telling me,’ but then does not produce over and over and over again,” he remarked. “Now they're finally saying, ‘you know what? I’m out.’”
He added, “In many ways, that’s worse for the Democrats because they’re not going to be able to get those voters back until they establish trust. So there’s a really big burden on them, especially when the primary driver of affordability is housing. It’s not like you can solve this by the midterms.”
The view from the supermajority Hicks, the Democratic Party chair, acknowledged the concerns surrounding Imperial County. This historically blue territory, which is predominantly Latino, shifted nearly 13 points to the right in November, signaling a potential alarm for Democrats.
However, Hicks urged caution against over-interpreting the shift in one county.
“The truth is, there wasn't the same kind of engagement in Imperial County that there was in other counties in the Central Valley, in Orange County and elsewhere,” he noted.
Hicks highlighted that in regions such as Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin, and Riverside counties, where the Democratic Party was actively campaigning, the rightward shifts were less stark, suggesting that their efforts mitigated the national headwinds.
“Where we showed up, by and large, we did well,” Hicks affirmed.
He credited grassroots organizing for the narrow victories in two of the closest House races: Derek Tran’s win over Republican incumbent Michelle Steel by just 653 votes and Adam Gray’s victory over Republican Rep. John Duarte by 187 votes. Hicks pointed out that one effort to organize same-day registrants at UC Merced provided Gray with a 220-vote advantage, surpassing his overall margin of victory.
“I know some have said, ‘Oh, well, Democrats outspend Republicans, so that's why they won,’” Hicks remarked. “Well, when you win by 600 votes, when you win by 187 votes. It ain't because of the money. It's because of the investment in infrastructure that helps you get across the finish line.”
Yet he was hesitant to address a crucial question of the 2024 cycle regarding the nine-point drop in turnout among registered voters compared to four years earlier. Further analysis of county data is necessary to discern who did not vote versus those who may have shifted their party allegiance.
“I know everybody wants to wrap up this story quickly. I'm not prepared to do that,” Hicks insisted. “I'm not going to be a part of speculating about ‘this is where the crossover was, this is where the turnout was.’ I just don't think we fully have that at this point.”
The emboldened opposition Jessica Millan Patterson, chairperson of the state Republican Party, noted that her team is also analyzing the turnout dynamics. She identified reasons for optimism beyond the GOP’s enhanced vote share at the top of the ticket.
One notable factor was her party’s improved performance on state ballot initiatives, winning eight out of nine general election measures since she took leadership five years ago.
Most significantly, the near-universal approval of Proposition 36, which enhances penalties for certain theft and drug-related offenses, marked a departure from a decade of California’s endorsement of criminal justice reform, illustrating that the GOP’s tough-on-crime stance resonates with many voters.
For Patterson, this trend indicated that voters are increasingly aligning with GOP ideas, paving the way for potential shifts toward Republican candidates in the future.
“You don’t get red-pilled overnight,” she stated. “It's the issues that affect your everyday life first, and then you connect them with people, and then you connect it with a party.”
Party registration trends reflect these changes, with shifts in voter registration being the last step in a political conversion. Under Patterson's leadership since 2019, Republicans advanced from being the third-largest party by registration to reclaim second place, signifying a “slight reddening” in the state.
Another critical takeaway for Patterson was the robust performance of Steve Garvey, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate. Despite being defeated by now-Sen. Adam Schiff by a 19-point margin, Garvey emerged as the top Republican vote-getter in the state, surpassing Trump’s tally, thanks to selective campaign investments.
“He made the strategic decision to focus all of his paid media on Latinos,” she observed. “It's really interesting that he made the decision that yes, Latinos are the way back to winning statewide for Republicans, and he did better than anyone else at the top of the ticket.”
‘This is a long road in front of us’ While Democrats struggled nationally with over-reliance on abortion rights as a campaign pillar, Planned Parenthood California is countering the narrative that centered around reproductive rights entirely disappointed.
“It's too early to have that type of knee-jerk reaction. We are two years post-Dobbs, where we've had a protection for almost 50 years [overturned], and I think we're still reacting to what that means across the country,” commented Jodi Hicks, the organization’s president.
An exit poll commissioned by Capitol Weekly revealed that abortion was the top issue for voters in three major House races won by Democrats—ousting incumbents Rep. Mike Garcia and Rep. Michelle Steel, as well as retaining the contested Orange County seat left vacant by outgoing Rep. Katie Porter.
The poll by Paul Mitchell of CA120 found that abortion rights were especially motivating for some non-Democrat voters who supported Democratic candidates. It was the primary concern for independents who voted for Democrat Derek Tran against Steel and for half of Republicans who chose Democrat George Whitesides over Garcia.
Hicks noted that her organization took lessons from 2022, when voters overwhelmingly backed a measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution while still supporting Republican incumbents in crucial House races.
This time, Planned Parenthood California invested $3.5 million in efforts to ensure voters recognized Republicans’ previous positions opposing abortion rights.
However, even with abortion as a prominent concern for voters, it did not guarantee victory for Democrats everywhere. In the Central Valley, abortion was the leading issue for those who sided with Democrat Rudy Salas against GOP Rep. David Valadao, yet Valadao won comfortably by nearly seven points.
“We're seeing a difference in what people care about in the Central Valley compared to Southern California … and I don't think any one single issue can be messaged across the state in the exact same way,” Hicks remarked.
“This is a long road in front of us,” she concluded. “It’s a long education campaign and a continual building up of that voting muscle for people to have to vote on this issue every single time. It's not something we've had to do for the past almost 50 years, and now we do, in every single election.”
Allen M Lee contributed to this report for TROIB News
California exhibited a subdued version of the nationwide rightward shift, with Republicans gaining ground by capitalizing on issues like crime and the state’s escalating cost of living. Donald Trump lost to Kamala Harris by double digits, yet his defeat was narrower than in previous elections. He successfully flipped 10 counties red, and the state GOP managed to secure three legislative seats despite being outspent significantly.
Conversely, California emerged as a bright spot for national Democrats, who celebrated their success in unseating three incumbent GOP Congress members and retaining a contentious vacant seat, adding to the slim Republican majority that will present challenges for Speaker Mike Johnson.
“California showed up and delivered what it was supposed to deliver, and that is, return two members of Congress, hold a seat and flip three Republican seats from red to blue,” Rusty Hicks, chair of the state Democratic Party, stated. “And in 2026, my guess is we'll be asked to do a bit more. We want to do the analysis to make sure that we are in position to do exactly that.”
Given California’s vast, diverse, and politically unique landscape, comprehensive analyses will require time to develop.
Nonetheless, some initial insights are beginning to emerge. In several competitive regions, Democratic campaigns effectively engaged voters to counter national trends, while Republicans advanced through ballot initiatives, and the state’s affordability issues disenchanted Latino voters. These dynamics could significantly influence the 2026 elections when California will elect a new governor and address several battleground House races.
PMG spoke with key players in California politics, including leadership from both state parties, Planned Parenthood representatives, and an expert on the state's Latino demographics, to gather their thoughts on the 2024 election outcomes and the lingering questions that remain.
Not voting is ‘a political statement’ The rightward trend among Latino voters is a broader national occurrence, yet it bears particular significance in California, where the backlash against Proposition 187—a measure aimed at immigrants—previously swung Latino support firmly toward the Democrats. As time passes, this era appears to be waning, with a poll commissioned by Republican consultant Mike Madrid shedding light on the situation.
The post-election survey, executed by Democratic pollster David Binder, revealed that concerns over affordability and high living costs are paramount among California’s Latino voters, who feel that the Democratic-led government is failing to address these issues.
More than three-quarters of respondents indicated that state government policies were exacerbating high prices. While 53 percent disapproved of the government's handling of the economy, including employment and living costs, only 44 percent approved.
Despite this dissatisfaction with Democrats, the poll did not reveal a surge in Republican popularity. A slight majority felt the state’s Democrats could adequately represent their needs, whereas fewer than 40 percent expressed similar confidence in Republicans. Respondents indicated by a 24-point margin that Democrats better understood their community than Republicans.
This suggests that California’s apparent shift toward red was less about increased support for Republicans and more about a steep decline in Democratic voter participation.
Harris received 1.8 million fewer votes than Joe Biden did four years ago, a decline that proved far more impactful than the 75,000 additional votes Trump garnered compared to his 2020 bid. Madrid suggested that a significant portion of voters missing this time were Latinos.
“I really want people to understand that the lack of voting, the lack of civic engagement, is in and of itself a political statement,” Madrid shared with members of a Los Angeles business group, where he discussed the poll results.
In an interview, Madrid elaborated that Latino voters still regard Democrats as the party that comprehends their needs, but they lack faith in the party’s ability to deliver tangible results.
“They finally left the bad relationship where this person is telling them over and over, ‘I understand you. I get your needs. I hear what you’re telling me,’ but then does not produce over and over and over again,” he remarked. “Now they're finally saying, ‘you know what? I’m out.’”
He added, “In many ways, that’s worse for the Democrats because they’re not going to be able to get those voters back until they establish trust. So there’s a really big burden on them, especially when the primary driver of affordability is housing. It’s not like you can solve this by the midterms.”
The view from the supermajority Hicks, the Democratic Party chair, acknowledged the concerns surrounding Imperial County. This historically blue territory, which is predominantly Latino, shifted nearly 13 points to the right in November, signaling a potential alarm for Democrats.
However, Hicks urged caution against over-interpreting the shift in one county.
“The truth is, there wasn't the same kind of engagement in Imperial County that there was in other counties in the Central Valley, in Orange County and elsewhere,” he noted.
Hicks highlighted that in regions such as Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin, and Riverside counties, where the Democratic Party was actively campaigning, the rightward shifts were less stark, suggesting that their efforts mitigated the national headwinds.
“Where we showed up, by and large, we did well,” Hicks affirmed.
He credited grassroots organizing for the narrow victories in two of the closest House races: Derek Tran’s win over Republican incumbent Michelle Steel by just 653 votes and Adam Gray’s victory over Republican Rep. John Duarte by 187 votes. Hicks pointed out that one effort to organize same-day registrants at UC Merced provided Gray with a 220-vote advantage, surpassing his overall margin of victory.
“I know some have said, ‘Oh, well, Democrats outspend Republicans, so that's why they won,’” Hicks remarked. “Well, when you win by 600 votes, when you win by 187 votes. It ain't because of the money. It's because of the investment in infrastructure that helps you get across the finish line.”
Yet he was hesitant to address a crucial question of the 2024 cycle regarding the nine-point drop in turnout among registered voters compared to four years earlier. Further analysis of county data is necessary to discern who did not vote versus those who may have shifted their party allegiance.
“I know everybody wants to wrap up this story quickly. I'm not prepared to do that,” Hicks insisted. “I'm not going to be a part of speculating about ‘this is where the crossover was, this is where the turnout was.’ I just don't think we fully have that at this point.”
The emboldened opposition Jessica Millan Patterson, chairperson of the state Republican Party, noted that her team is also analyzing the turnout dynamics. She identified reasons for optimism beyond the GOP’s enhanced vote share at the top of the ticket.
One notable factor was her party’s improved performance on state ballot initiatives, winning eight out of nine general election measures since she took leadership five years ago.
Most significantly, the near-universal approval of Proposition 36, which enhances penalties for certain theft and drug-related offenses, marked a departure from a decade of California’s endorsement of criminal justice reform, illustrating that the GOP’s tough-on-crime stance resonates with many voters.
For Patterson, this trend indicated that voters are increasingly aligning with GOP ideas, paving the way for potential shifts toward Republican candidates in the future.
“You don’t get red-pilled overnight,” she stated. “It's the issues that affect your everyday life first, and then you connect them with people, and then you connect it with a party.”
Party registration trends reflect these changes, with shifts in voter registration being the last step in a political conversion. Under Patterson's leadership since 2019, Republicans advanced from being the third-largest party by registration to reclaim second place, signifying a “slight reddening” in the state.
Another critical takeaway for Patterson was the robust performance of Steve Garvey, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate. Despite being defeated by now-Sen. Adam Schiff by a 19-point margin, Garvey emerged as the top Republican vote-getter in the state, surpassing Trump’s tally, thanks to selective campaign investments.
“He made the strategic decision to focus all of his paid media on Latinos,” she observed. “It's really interesting that he made the decision that yes, Latinos are the way back to winning statewide for Republicans, and he did better than anyone else at the top of the ticket.”
‘This is a long road in front of us’ While Democrats struggled nationally with over-reliance on abortion rights as a campaign pillar, Planned Parenthood California is countering the narrative that centered around reproductive rights entirely disappointed.
“It's too early to have that type of knee-jerk reaction. We are two years post-Dobbs, where we've had a protection for almost 50 years [overturned], and I think we're still reacting to what that means across the country,” commented Jodi Hicks, the organization’s president.
An exit poll commissioned by Capitol Weekly revealed that abortion was the top issue for voters in three major House races won by Democrats—ousting incumbents Rep. Mike Garcia and Rep. Michelle Steel, as well as retaining the contested Orange County seat left vacant by outgoing Rep. Katie Porter.
The poll by Paul Mitchell of CA120 found that abortion rights were especially motivating for some non-Democrat voters who supported Democratic candidates. It was the primary concern for independents who voted for Democrat Derek Tran against Steel and for half of Republicans who chose Democrat George Whitesides over Garcia.
Hicks noted that her organization took lessons from 2022, when voters overwhelmingly backed a measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution while still supporting Republican incumbents in crucial House races.
This time, Planned Parenthood California invested $3.5 million in efforts to ensure voters recognized Republicans’ previous positions opposing abortion rights.
However, even with abortion as a prominent concern for voters, it did not guarantee victory for Democrats everywhere. In the Central Valley, abortion was the leading issue for those who sided with Democrat Rudy Salas against GOP Rep. David Valadao, yet Valadao won comfortably by nearly seven points.
“We're seeing a difference in what people care about in the Central Valley compared to Southern California … and I don't think any one single issue can be messaged across the state in the exact same way,” Hicks remarked.
“This is a long road in front of us,” she concluded. “It’s a long education campaign and a continual building up of that voting muscle for people to have to vote on this issue every single time. It's not something we've had to do for the past almost 50 years, and now we do, in every single election.”
Allen M Lee contributed to this report for TROIB News
