Why the Democrats' abortion strategy might fall short in taking the New Hampshire governorship
Former GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte has a narrow advantage over Democrat Joyce Craig.
TroibNews 
**CONCORD, New Hampshire** — In the nation's most fiercely contested governor's race, Democrats are leaning on their established abortion-rights strategy, although its effectiveness remains uncertain.
Democratic candidate Joyce Craig, previously the mayor of New Hampshire's largest city, has centered her campaign on expanding abortion rights in a state where such access isn't guaranteed by the constitution, being the only state in New England in this situation. Craig has persistently attacked her opponent, former Senator Kelly Ayotte, for her previous support of measures limiting abortion access.
Historically, this tactic has been successful for Democrats across various races since the fall of Roe, even in purple and red-leaning regions. However, New Hampshire's unique political landscape—leaning blue in federal contests yet remaining distinctly purple at the state level—may complicate this approach.
Ayotte has countered the Democrats' criticisms by committing to uphold New Hampshire's existing law, which permits abortions up to 24 weeks and under specific conditions afterward. While polls indicate broad support for abortion rights in the state, it's not viewed as a primary concern. As Ayotte seeks a political comeback after narrowly losing her Senate seat in 2016, she benefits from significant statewide name recognition and the backing of the well-liked outgoing governor, Republican Chris Sununu.
“I don’t know if one issue — though a powerful issue — is enough to sway enough voters,” remarked Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.
In New Hampshire, a series of surveys from Saint Anselm College reveal that likely voters rank abortion behind more pressing issues like the economy, democracy, and border security—even among female voters. Other polling corroborates these findings.
“It’s not an unimportant issue, it’s just not an issue driving the election” the way it did in 2022, Sununu stated in an interview.
Sununu further questioned, “The question I have is: Are Democrats just going to use this as their playbook every single election forever? Believe me, the electorate will get real sick of it, and already they are.”
Abortion-rights messaging has proven particularly successful for Democrats at the state level. In 2023, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won reelection in heavily Republican Kentucky, partly due to a campaign focused on abortion rights. Beshear joined Craig on the campaign trail last month. Additionally, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who campaigned alongside Craig in Concord recently, highlighted what he described as a “clear contrast” between Craig and Ayotte on this issue.
Craig has called for codifying abortion rights into the state constitution, repealing existing restrictions on abortion post-24 weeks, establishing a Bureau of Reproductive Health Care within the state health department, and ensuring the state's Medicaid program covers abortion costs.
In her campaign, Craig and other Democrats have framed Ayotte as a candidate who seeks to limit reproductive freedoms, drawing attention to her prior support as a senator for legislation that would restrict access to abortion after 20 weeks and her votes against funding Planned Parenthood.
“I trust women to make their own health care decisions,” Craig remarked in a recent interview. “Where my opponent has actually spent the last 20 years attacking reproductive freedom.”
On the other hand, Ayotte has responded vigorously through media outlets, cautioning voters to be wary of Democrats' “false attacks” regarding abortion. She has pledged not only to uphold the state's 24-week law but also to veto any proposals aimed at restricting it. Moreover, she has promised to safeguard access to in-vitro fertilization and make it more affordable, even sharing her personal experiences with pregnancy challenges as a counter to one of Craig’s campaign ads discussing a miscarriage. Furthermore, Ayotte has criticized Democrats for “politicizing abortion to win votes.” Her campaign did not provide comments upon request.
Democrats have highlighted the numerous ads Ayotte has produced addressing abortion to claim they have her cornered on the issue.
“The clearest proof that access to reproductive freedom is a top issue in this year’s election is the millions of dollars Kelly Ayotte has spent running ads trying to mislead Granite Staters about her record,” stated Craig’s campaign manager, Craig Brown.
Republicans contend that Ayotte’s ads are neutralizing the abortion issue, especially through her personal pregnancy experiences. They also believe Ayotte has the upper hand concerning economic matters, particularly as the candidates contest state tax policies. Furthermore, they assert that Ayotte's portrayal of Craig as lenient on crime during her mayoral tenure in Manchester resonates with voters.
However, Republicans acknowledge that Ayotte's fate could be influenced by the performance of former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. Trump has previously lost New Hampshire in two general elections, narrowly in 2016 and by a larger margin in 2020. Current polling suggests he trails his opponent, Kamala Harris, by around 4 percentage points in New Hampshire averages.
Ayotte has made efforts to distance herself from the Republican ticket, notably skipping an event featuring Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, over the weekend. Nevertheless, Democrats have worked to link Ayotte, who disavowed Trump after the "Access Hollywood" tape surfaced in 2016, to the former president given her support this year.
“I’m all for Ayotte,” expressed Fergus Cullen, a former chair of the New Hampshire GOP. However, he cautioned, “Harris could have a wide enough margin to get Craig through.”
Megan Messerly, Kelly Garrity, and Madison Fernandez contributed to this report.
Anna Muller contributed to this report for TROIB News
Democratic candidate Joyce Craig, previously the mayor of New Hampshire's largest city, has centered her campaign on expanding abortion rights in a state where such access isn't guaranteed by the constitution, being the only state in New England in this situation. Craig has persistently attacked her opponent, former Senator Kelly Ayotte, for her previous support of measures limiting abortion access.
Historically, this tactic has been successful for Democrats across various races since the fall of Roe, even in purple and red-leaning regions. However, New Hampshire's unique political landscape—leaning blue in federal contests yet remaining distinctly purple at the state level—may complicate this approach.
Ayotte has countered the Democrats' criticisms by committing to uphold New Hampshire's existing law, which permits abortions up to 24 weeks and under specific conditions afterward. While polls indicate broad support for abortion rights in the state, it's not viewed as a primary concern. As Ayotte seeks a political comeback after narrowly losing her Senate seat in 2016, she benefits from significant statewide name recognition and the backing of the well-liked outgoing governor, Republican Chris Sununu.
“I don’t know if one issue — though a powerful issue — is enough to sway enough voters,” remarked Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.
In New Hampshire, a series of surveys from Saint Anselm College reveal that likely voters rank abortion behind more pressing issues like the economy, democracy, and border security—even among female voters. Other polling corroborates these findings.
“It’s not an unimportant issue, it’s just not an issue driving the election” the way it did in 2022, Sununu stated in an interview.
Sununu further questioned, “The question I have is: Are Democrats just going to use this as their playbook every single election forever? Believe me, the electorate will get real sick of it, and already they are.”
Abortion-rights messaging has proven particularly successful for Democrats at the state level. In 2023, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won reelection in heavily Republican Kentucky, partly due to a campaign focused on abortion rights. Beshear joined Craig on the campaign trail last month. Additionally, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who campaigned alongside Craig in Concord recently, highlighted what he described as a “clear contrast” between Craig and Ayotte on this issue.
Craig has called for codifying abortion rights into the state constitution, repealing existing restrictions on abortion post-24 weeks, establishing a Bureau of Reproductive Health Care within the state health department, and ensuring the state's Medicaid program covers abortion costs.
In her campaign, Craig and other Democrats have framed Ayotte as a candidate who seeks to limit reproductive freedoms, drawing attention to her prior support as a senator for legislation that would restrict access to abortion after 20 weeks and her votes against funding Planned Parenthood.
“I trust women to make their own health care decisions,” Craig remarked in a recent interview. “Where my opponent has actually spent the last 20 years attacking reproductive freedom.”
On the other hand, Ayotte has responded vigorously through media outlets, cautioning voters to be wary of Democrats' “false attacks” regarding abortion. She has pledged not only to uphold the state's 24-week law but also to veto any proposals aimed at restricting it. Moreover, she has promised to safeguard access to in-vitro fertilization and make it more affordable, even sharing her personal experiences with pregnancy challenges as a counter to one of Craig’s campaign ads discussing a miscarriage. Furthermore, Ayotte has criticized Democrats for “politicizing abortion to win votes.” Her campaign did not provide comments upon request.
Democrats have highlighted the numerous ads Ayotte has produced addressing abortion to claim they have her cornered on the issue.
“The clearest proof that access to reproductive freedom is a top issue in this year’s election is the millions of dollars Kelly Ayotte has spent running ads trying to mislead Granite Staters about her record,” stated Craig’s campaign manager, Craig Brown.
Republicans contend that Ayotte’s ads are neutralizing the abortion issue, especially through her personal pregnancy experiences. They also believe Ayotte has the upper hand concerning economic matters, particularly as the candidates contest state tax policies. Furthermore, they assert that Ayotte's portrayal of Craig as lenient on crime during her mayoral tenure in Manchester resonates with voters.
However, Republicans acknowledge that Ayotte's fate could be influenced by the performance of former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. Trump has previously lost New Hampshire in two general elections, narrowly in 2016 and by a larger margin in 2020. Current polling suggests he trails his opponent, Kamala Harris, by around 4 percentage points in New Hampshire averages.
Ayotte has made efforts to distance herself from the Republican ticket, notably skipping an event featuring Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, over the weekend. Nevertheless, Democrats have worked to link Ayotte, who disavowed Trump after the "Access Hollywood" tape surfaced in 2016, to the former president given her support this year.
“I’m all for Ayotte,” expressed Fergus Cullen, a former chair of the New Hampshire GOP. However, he cautioned, “Harris could have a wide enough margin to get Craig through.”
Megan Messerly, Kelly Garrity, and Madison Fernandez contributed to this report.
Anna Muller contributed to this report for TROIB News
