These 5 states are the most likely to see legislative chambers flip in November

Democrats and Republicans are busting campaign spending records in state legislative races this year as they aim to shape policy debates far from Washington.

All across the country, from Arizona to New Hampshire, the parties are spending tens of millions of dollars because of what state capitals have become: proving grounds for their agendas.

Democrats are rallying around protecting reproductive rights and improving affordability in housing, child care and education. Republicans are working to tie down-ballot candidates to President Joe Biden, warning of high inflation rates, immigration challenges and limited choices for parents in educating their children.

“What we care about as a party is happening in the states,” said Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. “It is on our ballot level that people most tangibly feel the impact of the Democratic Party agenda.”

Democrats are pursuing ambitious fundraising goals as they seek to pour more money into state legislative races than ever before. The DLCC has set a $60 million budget target this cycle and has raised nearly $28 million so far. The group’s efforts are bolstered by the emergence of new aligned groups like the States Project, which recently announced plans to spend $70 million to elect more Democrats to state legislatures.

But Republicans continue to dominate in fundraising. The Republican State Leadership Committee and the State Government Leadership Foundation collected more than $47 million this cycle, just a slice of overall spending from GOP interests. Despite Democratic gains in 2022, Republicans wield control over the vast majority of state legislatures.

“As the cornerstone of the conservative movement it is imperative that we defend our majorities against the onslaught of outside spending from liberal groups across the country,” RSLC President Dee Duncan said in a statement announcing the group’s 2024 strategic plan. “Now more than ever, Americans need state Republican leadership to pass policies that will counter the disastrous Joe Biden agenda coming out of Washington and provide real relief from the multiple crises created by Biden and his administration.”

Here’s a look at five states where Republicans and Democrats are waging the biggest battles for control of state legislatures — and where each party could begin a new era of power by winning just a handful of races.

Arizona

From the presidential race all the way down the ballot, Arizona is arguably the most important state in the 2024 election.

And among all the toss-up races in Arizona, the tightest fight is found at the state Legislature: Republicans hold a one-seat majority in both the state House and Senate.

With Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in office, if Democrats win majorities in both chambers, it will mark the first time since 1966 that the party has total statewide control.

Democrats believe Arizona is their best shot at flipping chambers this cycle, and they’re targeting pickup opportunities in five districts around Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, and at least three more in rural and southern Arizona.

The party is leaning into abortion messaging, bolstered by a state Supreme Court ruling in April that revived a Civil War-era law banning all abortions without exceptions. The state Legislature quickly moved to repeal that unpopular law, but Democrats are targeting the Republicans who voted against doing so.

A ballot measure enshrining the right to abortion is likely to be placed in front of voters in November, and Democrats are hopeful it will help turn out support for state legislative candidates.

“This is an area where we’ve been running messages on abortion, even in 2022, that were highly persuasive,” said Vicky Hausman, founder and co-CEO of Forward Majority, a Democratic super PAC. “It will be a key message frame.”

Michigan

Republicans are salivating over the opportunity to regain control of the Michigan House, partially reversing Democrats’ prized victory from the 2022 midterms when the party flipped the whole Legislature. Democrats hold a 56-54 advantage in the state House and 20-18 advantage in the state Senate, but the upper chamber is not up for election this year.

Republicans are framing themselves as a necessary check on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who they argue is pushing Michigan to be too much like liberal California as she eyes her own national ambitions.

Since taking statewide control, Democrats have passed a litany of progressive policy priorities like gun safety, abortion protections and repealing right-to-work. Democrats are touting that record as evidence that they should maintain full control in Lansing, but Republicans say it’s a liability because the party has drifted too far left to represent average Michiganders.

With Trump polling well in Michigan, Republicans are hoping the GOP will catch that down-ballot wave. They're targeting four seats held by Democrats in districts that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, along with another 10 seats Trump won once.

“Michiganders, who have not yet fled, are going to hold House Democrats accountable for incentivizing criminal invaders who cross our southern border to flock to Michigan neighborhoods, hiking taxes on the middle class, and prioritizing corporate welfare over working-class families,” Greg Manz, spokesperson for the Michigan House Republican Campaign Committee, said in a statement.

Minnesota

Democrats are looking to defend full control of the state Legislature, another major win from the 2022 midterms. All 134 state House seats are up for grabs, and Democratic leadership is confident in their field operation thanks to small district sizes and ambitious door-knocking efforts. Democrats control the state House 70 to 64.

Democrats burst out of the gates at the start of the 2023 session by quickly moving to pass wish-list items like enacting a child tax credit, universal free school meals and paid family and medical leave. That frenzy launched Gov. Tim Walz into the national spotlight, raising Minnesota’s profile with his own and fueling speculation about the Democrat’s national ambitions.

Yet the 2024 session didn’t yield the same level of legislative achievements. Democrats failed to pass big-ticket bills like a public infrastructure borrowing package and an Equal Rights Amendment enshrining protections for women and LGBTQ+ people.

Democrats’ trifecta could evaporate come November. In addition to the risk of losing the state House, the Senate is currently locked in a 33-33 tie. A special election is scheduled for November to fill the seat of state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who stepped down to run for Congress.

There’s also the possibility of another Senate vacancy that could compromise Democrats’ majority: Some party officials, including Walz, are calling for the resignation of Sen. Nicole Mitchell, who was arrested in April for felony burglary. Yet Mitchell has resisted those calls, and her legal proceedings will take place in July.

New Hampshire

Republicans are defending slim majorities in the state House and Senate — making New Hampshire a top target flip for Democrats hoping to break the Republican trifecta.

Democrats are zeroed in on the House, where Republicans earned a surprise majority in 2020 and currently hold 199 seats out of 400.

Control of the Legislature has switched back and forth between parties over the years, underscoring the opportunity for either party to sell voters on a different vision for policymaking. The open gubernatorial race — GOP Gov. Chris Sununu isn’t running for reelection — has the potential to drive out more voters in November, giving either party a coattails push.

New Hampshire is the one state in New England that doesn’t have abortion protections, a point Democrats are hammering as a reason for why they should be swept into office in order to lock down reproductive rights, especially in the event of a second Trump presidency.

Pennsylvania

This is the only state Legislature that is split down the middle: Democrats hold the House by one seat and Republicans hold the Senate by six seats. Pennsylvania is another presidential battleground and features a competitive U.S. Senate race that could have down-ballot effects.

The House has hung on a razor's edge for the entire cycle: Democrats earned their one-seat majority in 2022 thanks to a race won by just 63 votes. A slate of special elections spurred by retirements has given Republicans multiple attempts to gain ground, but the GOP has fallen short.

There are roughly a dozen competitive House districts in play. Democrats are eyeing the Philadelphia area for flip opportunities while Republicans are focused on western Pennsylvania, home to coal mining and old mill towns that backed Trump.

Democrats are encouraged by the recent elections of statewide officials like Gov. Josh Shapiro and U.S. Sen. John Fetterman. After Democrats took the House in 2020 by flipping 16 seats, they passed gun safety rules, LBGTQ+ protections and an increase to the minimum wage. But those proposals stalled in the GOP-run Senate.

If Republicans flip the House, they are likely to use that unified power to pursue long-sought priorities like expanded voter ID, setting up a clash with Shapiro.