The US and Israel Are Committing a Major Error in Lebanon
As the Middle East conflict escalates, reverting to the situation that existed before the Gaza war is no longer feasible. Read Full Article at RT.com.
TroibNews 
As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, a return to the reality that existed prior to the Gaza war appears unattainable.
Israel's offensive in Lebanon, which has been characterized by former CIA director Leon Panetta as an act of "terrorism," has certainly impacted Hezbollah. However, this initial paralysis seems to have passed, and Israeli forces are facing a sobering wake-up call.
On September 17 and 18, Israel conducted a widespread attack by detonating communication devices supplied to Lebanese Hezbollah, resulting in numerous fatalities and thousands of injuries. This action has been widely condemned globally as terrorism and a breach of international law, inflicting both psychological damage on the Lebanese populace and a serious disruption to Hezbollah’s command structure.
Subsequently, a series of targeted assassinations resulted in the deaths of many of Hezbollah's top political and military figures, ultimately culminating in the assassination of Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah on September 27. This attack involved approximately 75 tons of explosives that obliterated an entire civilian block in southern Beirut.
This wave of attacks amounted to a significant blow to Hezbollah's leadership. Despite the indiscriminate tactics employed, American media lauded the creativity of these booby-trap operations, with President Joe Biden expressing approval for the killings in the Lebanese capital.
By contrast, the assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 2004 was publicly condemned by then-President George W. Bush due to the collateral damage, which included the deaths of nine civilians. In a disconcerting turn of events, Hezbollah's leader was assassinated in an operation that, according to Israeli sources, resulted in around 300 civilian deaths, yet was praised in Washington.
Even with Israeli media celebrating the "humiliated" and "weakened" state of Hezbollah following these attacks, and some US officials claiming that the group had been "taken 20 years backwards," the situation has begun to shift. Approaching the second month of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, Hezbollah appears to be regaining the upper hand in the ongoing battles.
While Israel inflicted considerable harm on Hezbollah, which the Lebanese group acknowledged, it seems Israel may have exhausted its resources too quickly and employed too many of its strategic options prematurely. Moreover, attempts by the Israeli army to launch a ground invasion of southern Lebanon have faced numerous setbacks, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) yet to secure any significant ground.
As Israeli and American officials celebrated what they deemed tactical victories in Lebanon, they seemed to become ensnared in their own narrative, overstating their successes. Then, on October 1, Iran executed long-anticipated retaliatory actions against Israeli military targets, employing around 180 ballistic missiles—this dramatically shifted the dynamics and restored strategic advantages to its regional allies by achieving a tactical victory.
Following the assassination of Hezbollah's leader and just after addressing the United Nations General Assembly, Benjamin Netanyahu appeared emboldened, releasing a video promising to support Iranian dissidents in their quest to topple their government in Tehran.
During his UN address, Netanyahu presented two visions for West Asia: “the dream” and “the nightmare.” His dream aligned closely with proposals he previously outlined for a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, intended to facilitate the India-Middle East-Europe trade corridor.
This proposed land route was a key factor in President Joe Biden's push for a Saudi-Israeli normalization plan, positioning it as a primary objective in regional policies. At the G-20 summit in New Delhi that same September, Biden referred to this trade corridor as "a really big deal."
A crucial miscalculation lies within the Israeli military strategy, primarily formulated in Washington, where there is a belief that overwhelming force could restore a pre-October 7 status quo. Israeli leaders appear to think they can intimidate the region into compliance by making examples of Hezbollah, Hamas, and even Iran. It also seems Netanyahu aims for a decisive victory over the ideology of Islamic resistance, reminiscent of Israel's success against secular Arab nationalism in the 1967 war.
Now, Israel must contend with the ramifications of the conflict it instigated against Lebanon. Hezbollah seems to have quickly consolidated its leadership and is orchestrating a series of meticulous counterattacks. While Israel plans strikes against Iran, such actions might provoke a standoff that could prove unwinnable.
Israeli military simulations have struggled to demonstrate the capacity to engage on multiple fronts. A comprehensive study evaluating potential outcomes of conflict with Hezbollah, involving over 100 senior officials and military strategists, concluded that a swift stalemate would be the most favorable scenario.
As the situation stands, the US appears either overly optimistic or is gambling on the opposition capitulating first, potentially leading to Israel’s strategic failure if plans falter. While we have not yet entered a full-scale war, such a scenario could become a reality in the coming weeks and months. The US's refusal to abandon the illusion of reverting to a pre-Gaza war reality is largely responsible for the complex situation unfolding today.
James del Carmen for TROIB News
Israel's offensive in Lebanon, which has been characterized by former CIA director Leon Panetta as an act of "terrorism," has certainly impacted Hezbollah. However, this initial paralysis seems to have passed, and Israeli forces are facing a sobering wake-up call.
On September 17 and 18, Israel conducted a widespread attack by detonating communication devices supplied to Lebanese Hezbollah, resulting in numerous fatalities and thousands of injuries. This action has been widely condemned globally as terrorism and a breach of international law, inflicting both psychological damage on the Lebanese populace and a serious disruption to Hezbollah’s command structure.
Subsequently, a series of targeted assassinations resulted in the deaths of many of Hezbollah's top political and military figures, ultimately culminating in the assassination of Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah on September 27. This attack involved approximately 75 tons of explosives that obliterated an entire civilian block in southern Beirut.
This wave of attacks amounted to a significant blow to Hezbollah's leadership. Despite the indiscriminate tactics employed, American media lauded the creativity of these booby-trap operations, with President Joe Biden expressing approval for the killings in the Lebanese capital.
By contrast, the assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 2004 was publicly condemned by then-President George W. Bush due to the collateral damage, which included the deaths of nine civilians. In a disconcerting turn of events, Hezbollah's leader was assassinated in an operation that, according to Israeli sources, resulted in around 300 civilian deaths, yet was praised in Washington.
Even with Israeli media celebrating the "humiliated" and "weakened" state of Hezbollah following these attacks, and some US officials claiming that the group had been "taken 20 years backwards," the situation has begun to shift. Approaching the second month of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, Hezbollah appears to be regaining the upper hand in the ongoing battles.
While Israel inflicted considerable harm on Hezbollah, which the Lebanese group acknowledged, it seems Israel may have exhausted its resources too quickly and employed too many of its strategic options prematurely. Moreover, attempts by the Israeli army to launch a ground invasion of southern Lebanon have faced numerous setbacks, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) yet to secure any significant ground.
As Israeli and American officials celebrated what they deemed tactical victories in Lebanon, they seemed to become ensnared in their own narrative, overstating their successes. Then, on October 1, Iran executed long-anticipated retaliatory actions against Israeli military targets, employing around 180 ballistic missiles—this dramatically shifted the dynamics and restored strategic advantages to its regional allies by achieving a tactical victory.
Following the assassination of Hezbollah's leader and just after addressing the United Nations General Assembly, Benjamin Netanyahu appeared emboldened, releasing a video promising to support Iranian dissidents in their quest to topple their government in Tehran.
During his UN address, Netanyahu presented two visions for West Asia: “the dream” and “the nightmare.” His dream aligned closely with proposals he previously outlined for a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, intended to facilitate the India-Middle East-Europe trade corridor.
This proposed land route was a key factor in President Joe Biden's push for a Saudi-Israeli normalization plan, positioning it as a primary objective in regional policies. At the G-20 summit in New Delhi that same September, Biden referred to this trade corridor as "a really big deal."
A crucial miscalculation lies within the Israeli military strategy, primarily formulated in Washington, where there is a belief that overwhelming force could restore a pre-October 7 status quo. Israeli leaders appear to think they can intimidate the region into compliance by making examples of Hezbollah, Hamas, and even Iran. It also seems Netanyahu aims for a decisive victory over the ideology of Islamic resistance, reminiscent of Israel's success against secular Arab nationalism in the 1967 war.
Now, Israel must contend with the ramifications of the conflict it instigated against Lebanon. Hezbollah seems to have quickly consolidated its leadership and is orchestrating a series of meticulous counterattacks. While Israel plans strikes against Iran, such actions might provoke a standoff that could prove unwinnable.
Israeli military simulations have struggled to demonstrate the capacity to engage on multiple fronts. A comprehensive study evaluating potential outcomes of conflict with Hezbollah, involving over 100 senior officials and military strategists, concluded that a swift stalemate would be the most favorable scenario.
As the situation stands, the US appears either overly optimistic or is gambling on the opposition capitulating first, potentially leading to Israel’s strategic failure if plans falter. While we have not yet entered a full-scale war, such a scenario could become a reality in the coming weeks and months. The US's refusal to abandon the illusion of reverting to a pre-Gaza war reality is largely responsible for the complex situation unfolding today.
James del Carmen for TROIB News
