The Topmost Suitable Vice-Presidential Choices for Trump

Democratic handwringing is reaching immense proportions after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance. But Donald Trump still faces a deeply polarized electorate with only slim leads in key swing state polls. And his track record suggests he is incapable of winning more than 50 percent of the popular vote; at his high point in 2020, he won just 46.8 percent.

Picking the right vice-presidential nominee might shore up some of his vulnerabilities — most notably among several key demographic and political groups of voters. Trump is well aware of this dynamic. He chose Mike Pence in 2016 in part to reassure evangelical Christians that the thrice-married New Yorker would be their ally.

Today, Trump’s short list of veep prospects offers insight into the trait he prizes above all — loyalty — but also into the campaign’s thinking about his strengths and weaknesses within the electorate.

Here’s a clear-eyed look at some of Trump’s weaknesses and how a VP pick might be able to help. They include names on his public short list as well as a few others that won’t fade from the conversation — or which he’d be smart to at least consider.

Biden didn’t oust Trump from the White House in 2020 by running up the score in big cities. Rather, he rolled up huge margins in the suburbs, particularly in the swing states that determined the outcome. The suburbs will again cast more than half the vote in November, and they remain a Trump soft spot. Recent national polling shows that while Biden’s approval is slightly underwater in the suburbs, Trump is viewed even more unfavorably.

Several candidates might make a difference.

Nikki Haley, a former suburban state legislator herself before she became a governor and U.N. ambassador, is an obvious choice. Witness her results against Trump earlier this year in the GOP primary campaign. In Pennsylvania, for example, her top performances came in the populous suburbs surrounding Philadelphia, the same ones that buried Trump in 2020. She more than anyone could be a standard-bearer for the pre-Trump GOP and the suburban voters who once flocked to it. The only problem with this pick is there’s no evidence to suggest she’s in the running. Trump isn’t the type to elevate the opponent who took him on most fiercely, and the one who refused to kiss the ring.

After her, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio likely makes the best case. His political profile is built for the increasingly diverse suburbs. In addition to the generational contrast he’d make with Trump (he’s roughly two decades younger), he knows the terrain better than any other veep prospect in the hunt. He has a proven record of running well in the suburbs, not just in his home state but also in his failed 2016 presidential primary run — no other short-lister can say the same. Other Republicans have noticed Rubio’s suburban appeal; in the 2018 midterms, Rubio was enlisted to campaign for GOP candidates in places as varied as the Atlanta, Chicago and the Nashville suburbs.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is another whose political identity is rooted in his suburban success. The Trump era has been marked by the GOP’s erosion in suburbia, but Youngkin managed to defy that trend by capturing both moderate suburbanites and MAGA adherents in his 2021 high-wire act to win a state that Biden took by 10 points the year before. But his star has dimmed since then after a series of political blows, none more deflating than his failed effort to engineer a takeover of Virginia’s Legislature last year. And his uneasy coexistence with Trump helps explain why he’s not mentioned in many VP short lists.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, on the other hand, does appear to be a finalist and his profile might appeal to suburbanites. He’s no culture warrior, and his mild manner, familiarity with the global economy and steadiness on the campaign trail could serve to sand down Trump’s edges in the more comfortable and educated precincts where Trump struggled in 2020. There isn’t any wing of the party that hates him or any region of the country where he’d seem out of place. At the same time, Burgum’s experience as a two-term, small-state governor is more oriented toward small-town and rural America. He also signed one of the most restrictive abortion bans in the country, which will be a non-starter with many suburban women.

Then there's, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, who projects traditional conservative vibes, has served on Capitol Hill since 2013 and is a clean-cut Army veteran. He’s also a hard-liner on immigration and crime, two issues Trump is eager to spotlight and could play well in Republican-leaning suburbs where the GOP vote has wavered in recent years.

The gender gap that confronted Trump in 2016 and 2020 remains a serious obstacle. And he’s weighed down by additional baggage this year, namely the jury verdicts that found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation in lawsuits brought by writer E. Jean Carroll, and his shaping of the conservative Supreme Court majority that overturned the constitutional right to an abortion. The former president’s unpopularity with women remains stubbornly high — 58 percent of women held a strongly unfavorable opinion of Trump, according to the most recent Fox News poll. Polling shows Biden continues to hold a comfortable lead among women.

Choosing a woman as his running mate can’t undo that history or erase that deficit. And women voters obviously don’t always vote for women candidates, but it might make a difference at the margins in an election that figures to be remarkably close.

The trouble is, there’s little cause to think that a viable female candidate who could actually move voters is among the finalists. Trump publicly ruled out Nikki Haley, who’s been tested in a national campaign and won statewide election twice, in a May social media post.

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik have drawn frequent mention, but there isn’t much evidence suggesting either would have particular appeal to women.

Noem, who said recently Trump would benefit from a woman running mate, is likely disqualified in any case by recent revelations that she killed her dog. Even if she hasn’t been ruled out, her combative style doesn’t distinguish her from Trump.

Stefanik — the only woman included in short lists reported by the press — has a similar problem. Describing herself as “ultra MAGA” isn’t likely to win over women voters who are Trump skeptics. On abortion, both have advocated more restrictive positions than Trump himself.

In an election where roughly one-fifth of the electorate is unsatisfied with both major party nominees, a running mate who appeals to this group — the so-called double haters — could be a significant asset.

It’s not a monolithic group. In the seven battleground states, these voters are more likely to be younger, to identify as independents and are evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, according to the Swing State Project, a survey research collaboration between the Cook Political Report and two pollsters, BSG, and the GS Strategy Group. These voters deeply disapprove of Biden’s performance on the economy and are especially disturbed by Trump’s temperament and legal troubles.

Who might appeal to these kinds of voters? Someone with an independent streak and a sustained record of calling out both nominees.

That narrows the field of prospects to one — Nikki Haley.

She ripped Biden on the primary campaign trail while also offering sharp criticism of Trump’s fitness for office. Nearly every other Republican in the hunt is likely too obsequious to Trump to have much appeal to these voters.

Biden’s weakness with Black and Hispanic voters this year, particularly men, is coinciding with a moment when there are more GOP veep prospects of color than ever before. Trump’s selection of a non-white running mate offers the promise of putting a serious dent in the Democratic coalition — peeling off even a few percentage points in the right places could be the difference between victory and defeat.

Among the top African American prospects, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Florida Rep. Byron Donalds and former HUD Secretary Ben Carson draw the most mention.

There’s just one problem: None of them has a convincing track record of winning over Black voters. Scott would have considerable appeal to evangelical voters, but that’s not an area of concern for Trump. A Scott-aligned super PAC has launched a well-funded Black voter outreach initiative, but in his home state, Scott regularly loses the majority of the state’s nine majority Black counties.

Donalds and Carson face similar challenges. Donalds’ electoral record in his Republican-dominated, southwest Florida-based congressional district proves only that he can win GOP voters — only 5 percent of the population is Black. Carson may have once been a hero to many African Americans, but that was before his 2016 presidential bid — and before his harsh critiques of President Barack Obama.

Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, makes more sense as a running mate. While the Latino voters Trump needs in the Southwest (and in states like North Carolina and Georgia) aren’t Cuban Americans, Rubio’s Spanish speaking skills would help him reach those audiences, underscoring the historic dimension he would bring to the ticket.

Unlike the double haters, who hold largely mainstream political views, there’s also a growing contingent of disaffected voters with a more radical or even conspiratorial mindset.

Many of them are flocking to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent contender who could seriously play the role of spoiler in 2024. And with a base comprised of voters still animated by Covid lockdowns, there’s an argument to be made that Kennedy poses a bigger threat to Trump than Biden.

If true, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance might have enhanced value as a running mate.

Out of any of the serious VP contenders, Vance has embraced the “burn it down” ethos of the populist new right. His long-standing opposition to vaccine and mask mandates and unstinting criticism of Covid restrictions would resonate with the RFK-curious. His lack of political experience — Vance is less than two years into his first Senate term — wouldn’t be a significant issue since their beliefs are marked by deep distrust of institutions and the political establishment.

Biden ousted Trump from the White House by flipping five swing states in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. So a key question for any prospective Trump running mate is, which one of those states can they help win back? Would they help hold North Carolina in November? Could they help pick off Nevada?

Since none of the short-listers actually hails from a battleground state, the Trump campaign can only speculate. But some contenders could give a boost.

J.D. Vance’s populist message and experience winning a Rust Belt Senate seat gives him a grounding in the politics of the industrial Midwest, which includes Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Marco Rubio might be especially useful in Nevada, where he spent part of his childhood, or Arizona, particularly as Biden is faltering amid Latino voters.

Tim Scott’s highest value might be in the South; his home state shares media markets with both Georgia and North Carolina, so he’s no stranger to parts of those states. Glenn Youngkin is another who offers extra bang for the buck — Virginia shares a media market with North Carolina.

Of course, the geography of a vice presidential pick no longer matters much — in our polarized politics, partisan tribe is more important to voters than local ties. A dozen years ago, Paul Ryan was unable to throw Wisconsin to Mitt Romney. Before that, John Edwards failed to deliver North Carolina for John Kerry. 

But in a tight race, where a handful of key states figure to be photo finishes, making the right VP choice could make a crucial difference.