The first GOP debate is at risk of losing its draw

The GOP primary debate seemed originally like it could result in political fireworks. But with less than two months to go, it is veering toward something far less crowded and consequential.

The party’s rigid donor criteria stands to limit the number of GOP candidates that debate in Milwaukee this August. Its polling requirements could trip up campaigns, too. Several candidates are openly mocking the Republican National Committee’s idea of a loyalty pledge requirement to participate. The leading candidate, Donald Trump, is downplaying the idea that he will show up at all.

A stage that was once expected to be as sprawling as it was in the 2016 GOP primary could end up a slimmed-down affair, with the longshots not qualifying and the frontrunner following through on his threats to boycott. In all, the events could draw far fewer viewers than in years past — and take on far less significance in altering the outcome of the campaign.

“I think for those people who don't make the debate stage, it's very hard for them to make the case for why they should stay in the race, and I suspect they will have trouble raising money after that,” said former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is still trying to secure the 40,000 donors needed to qualify for the first debate, set to be hosted by Fox News on Aug. 23.

The debate uncertainty is the product of a decidedly different approach the RNC is taking than it did eight years ago, the last time the party faced a seriously contested race for the nomination. During that primary, a horde of candidates appeared onstage, making for chaotic showdowns. There were so many candidates that the committee set up “undercard” debates — otherwise known as the “kiddie” table — featuring lower-polling candidates who appeared before the leading ones televised in primetime.

This time around, the RNC was intent on weeding out candidates who lacked any serious prospect of winning the primary or who were trying to use the debate stage to further their personal interests. But it was the frontrunner himself who decided he wasn’t all that interested.

Trump advisers say he remains opposed to participating in the August debate, and that he sees no reason to appear onstage against candidates who are polling far behind him. Beyond that, the former president, they say, remains upset with Fox News over what he regards as their unfair coverage of him.

“Why would I let these people take shots at me?” Trump asked, in an interview last month on Fox.

By skipping the debate, Trump advisers hope to rob what could be his opponents’ best opportunity to trip up the former president. It’s possible that Trump could hold an event that would compete for attention and steer viewers away from his rivals.

Trump is not the only candidate whose appearance on the debate stage is either unlikely or uncertain. Other candidates have said they will not sign the RNC’s loyalty pledge to support the eventual nominee, a prerequisite set by the committee to participate in the debate.

Those threats may ultimately not matter, since only those who have met the RNC’s polling and donation thresholds will be asked to take the pledge anyways. Lower-polling candidates who’ve come out against the requirement — like former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd — may not get the opportunity to sign onto the loyalty agreement. Christie has openly refused to support Trump but also said he’ll sign whatever is required to get on the debate stage.

Some of the other requirements may prove more cumbersome.

So far, campaigns for Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy are the only ones to say they’ve reached the required 40,000 donors — and the RNC says that figure must include at least 200 unique donors in each of 20 states. Other campaigns are projecting confidence that they’ll hit the mark in time for the August debate, though the early intraparty skirmish for cash has already resulted in bruised feelings and egos among candidates and their respective orbits.

Last week, former Vice President Mike Pence brought in roughly $250,000 at a fundraiser in central Indiana, according to his campaign. The next day, allies of DeSantis announced a dueling fundraiser in Pence’s backyard of Hamilton County, Indiana. But what most raised eyebrows was that the fundraiser would also be hosted by Bob Grand, the Indianapolis attorney and lobbyist whom Pence installed on the Trump-Pence inaugural committee and showered with attention and flights on Air Force Two during his vice presidency.

But the other question was what it would mean for Pence’s ability to hit the RNC’s donor threshold.

A spokesperson for Pence’s campaign told POLITICO they’re confident he will qualify for the debate, but noted he got a late start on fundraising in this quarter, announcing his candidacy on June 7.

An adviser to North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s presidential campaign said his team wasn’t surprised that the RNC decided to implement a robust donor threshold, but offered no comment on how close the wealthy candidate is to reaching it. Burgum has already spent more than $4 million on television advertising in his bid, according to ad buy tracking firm AdImpact.

Larry Elder, another lesser-known contender, said the RNC has “rigged the rules of the game” to favor “establishment, inside-the-beltway, corporate candidates,” while Hutchinson’s campaign manager, Rob Burgess, accused the committee of picking “winners and losers.”

But with second-quarter fundraising reports still two weeks from being published, it remains difficult to gauge candidates’ progress. Despite saying last month he had met the RNC’s requirement, Scott’s campaign continues to send fundraising text messages and emails pleading for supporters to send as little as $1 to assist him in qualifying for the RNC debate.

“I need your help to confirm my spot on the Presidential Debate Stage!” read one such appeal from Scott on Tuesday.

And it isn’t just fundraising the candidates have to worry about. Polling criteria could also trip up some of the longshots. In order to qualify, candidates must earn at least 1 percent support in three approved polls conducted after July 1 but before the deadline on Aug. 21. The RNC’s stringent polling criteria could mean that candidates polling around 1 or 2 percent — but not necessarily hitting those marks in every single survey or the approved surveys — could get shut out of the debate.

Elizabeth Stoddart, a spokesperson for Michigan businessman and presidential candidate Perry Johnson, argued that “early state polling should remain the first priority ahead of national polling,” noting that Johnson has focused his outreach on those states, while slamming “arbitrary donor thresholds” the RNC has put in place.

This year’s criteria were set by the RNC directly — a shift from the last open primary eight years ago, when the television networks and cable outlets sponsoring the debates set the parameters. For the first debate in 2015, which also aired on Fox News Channel, Fox allowed all 16 declared candidates to debate, though they used polling averages to identify the top 10, who appeared on the prime-time stage.

Adam Wren, Steve Shepard, and Kelly Garrity contributed to this story.