The Democrats and Republicans Most Likely to Succeed in the 2028 Election — Current Standouts
The election has concluded, and now it's time to focus on the upcoming one.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump jokes about it with a dark twist, while Steve Bannon promotes it. The idea sends chills down the spines of Democrats. Yet, under the Constitution, Trump cannot pursue a third term. This sets the stage for truly open presidential primaries in both parties, marking the first time since 2008 that neither an incumbent president nor a former president is dominating the field.
The 2028 presidential primary has effectively begun, with ambitious politicians from both parties maneuvering for position and advantage.
Formal campaign announcements might arrive sooner than expected. To illustrate, John Delaney kicked off his 2020 presidential campaign in July 2017, merely six months after Trump took office for the first time. Even without formal announcements, potential candidates need to start building their campaigns—enhancing name recognition, defining ideological stances, and establishing donor networks—so they don't fall behind as the primary season heats up.
As 2024 draws to a close, it's evident some prospective 2028 candidates capitalized on the year, while others missed opportunities.
Here’s a look at which individuals are best positioned for a presidential run, coming from a mix of the incoming and outgoing administrations, the Senate, governors’ mansions, and the House.
**Kamala Harris: Outgoing Administration Winner**
Despite her recent loss, Harris stands out as one of the most supported Democratic presidential candidates since Adlai Stevenson. Her performance in a debate against Trump was commanding. While she made few gaffes on the campaign trail, a November poll from The Economist and YouGov indicated that only 6 percent of Harris voters blamed her for the defeat; 24 percent pointed fingers at Biden, and 53 percent felt it was simply a bad year for Democrats. A December Echelon poll revealed that 41 percent of Democrats preferred Harris for 2028, while no other candidate reached double digits. In response to a question about whether she should continue as a leading voice for Democrats, a plurality of 49 percent said yes.
Early primary polls often reflect name recognition rather than true support, and it remains uncertain whether Harris can consolidate enough backing for a 2028 campaign or if she might opt to pursue the safer route of running for California governor in 2026. However, if she does choose to run for president again, she could very well start in a favorable position.
Meanwhile, outgoing Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg retains a loyal following and has proven to be a gracious presence even on networks like Fox News, despite previous airline disruptions occurring on his watch. His advocacy for aggressive antitrust enforcement resonates with Democrats aiming to appeal to working-class voters who feel abandoned by the party.
Nevertheless, questions linger about whether Buttigieg possesses enough experience and credentials to mount a serious presidential campaign. Some speculate he may be considering the Michigan governorship as a stepping stone for future ambitions.
**JD Vance & Donald Trump Jr.: Incoming Administration Winners**
As previously noted, current and former vice presidents tend to have a success story when it comes to winning presidential nominations. By becoming vice president, JD Vance has likely secured his place in the top tier of the 2028 Republican primary. However, caution is warranted, as past vice presidents who faced off against their former running mates have encountered challenges.
Trump hinted at a potential "dynasty" in remarks to Time magazine, indicating the possibility of a successor emerging. Although Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner were prominent figures in Trump’s first administration, Donald Trump Jr. has played a crucial role in shaping the current administration, acting as a gatekeeper for loyalists and ideologues. Trump spoke positively of his son, saying, “I think he’d do very well,” and praised daughter-in-law Lara Trump for her work with the Republican National Committee. Although Lara withdrew from consideration for a vacant Senate seat, Don Jr. remains a key figure within Trump’s inner circle.
While Marco Rubio's previous presidential aspirations fell short, his loyalty over the past eight years has earned him the Secretary of State position in the current administration. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem considered a 2024 run but ultimately gained a critical cabinet position, and both she and Rubio retain a desire to vie for the presidency.
**Ruben Gallego: Senate Winner, Democrat**
Among the four Democrats who won Senate races in states where Harris lost, Ruben Gallego distinguished himself by securing a majority vote, surpassing Harris by more than half a percentage point. His appeal, particularly among Latino voters, was notable. In the wake of Harris’ defeat, Gallego's campaign was effective, utilizing an understanding of the political and cultural dynamics at play.
Incumbent senators faced challenges establishing political finesse as outgoing candidates. John Fetterman attempted to pave a centrist path, attributing some blame for Harris' loss to immigration issues, which he discussed publicly. Still, he may have alienated some progressives with his stance on the recent Gaza conflict.
**Marco Rubio: Senate Winner, Republican**
The path to the presidency appears rocky for sitting senators given historical trends. Marco Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State may provide him with an edge for a 2028 run. Meanwhile, the Virginia governor’s race saw Glenn Youngkin successfully maintain his popularity without directly pursuing the presidency. Still, a precarious political future looms.
**Andy Beshear: Gubernatorial Winner, Democrat**
Among governors, Andy Beshear of Kentucky demonstrated strong electoral resilience by winning reelection in a red state, earning praise from Democrats. His accomplishments include pushing back against anti-abortion and anti-transgender legislation.
In contrast, swing state governors like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro and Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer struggled to bolster Democratic turnout during the presidential election cycle. Their absence from the ticket hindered their ability to galvanize voters effectively.
**Brian Kemp: Gubernatorial Winner, Republican**
Amid the political landscape, Brian Kemp of Georgia stands out. His reelection in 2022 without help from Trump solidified his base, which has grown increasingly united even as he navigated tensions with the former president. An October poll indicates Kemp's approval rating is strong, and he might be positioned as a favorable non-Trump Republican candidate for 2028.
**Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: House Winner, Democrat**
Finally, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from the House boasts a significant national profile, positioning her well despite the challenges facing "the Squad." She has made strategic moves to align her campaign with party interests, such as endorsing the Harris-Walz ticket and supporting Democratic infrastructure.
As the primary landscape unfolds, contenders from all arenas will need to navigate a complex and evolving political environment leading to the 2028 election.
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
The 2028 presidential primary has effectively begun, with ambitious politicians from both parties maneuvering for position and advantage.
Formal campaign announcements might arrive sooner than expected. To illustrate, John Delaney kicked off his 2020 presidential campaign in July 2017, merely six months after Trump took office for the first time. Even without formal announcements, potential candidates need to start building their campaigns—enhancing name recognition, defining ideological stances, and establishing donor networks—so they don't fall behind as the primary season heats up.
As 2024 draws to a close, it's evident some prospective 2028 candidates capitalized on the year, while others missed opportunities.
Here’s a look at which individuals are best positioned for a presidential run, coming from a mix of the incoming and outgoing administrations, the Senate, governors’ mansions, and the House.
**Kamala Harris: Outgoing Administration Winner**
Despite her recent loss, Harris stands out as one of the most supported Democratic presidential candidates since Adlai Stevenson. Her performance in a debate against Trump was commanding. While she made few gaffes on the campaign trail, a November poll from The Economist and YouGov indicated that only 6 percent of Harris voters blamed her for the defeat; 24 percent pointed fingers at Biden, and 53 percent felt it was simply a bad year for Democrats. A December Echelon poll revealed that 41 percent of Democrats preferred Harris for 2028, while no other candidate reached double digits. In response to a question about whether she should continue as a leading voice for Democrats, a plurality of 49 percent said yes.
Early primary polls often reflect name recognition rather than true support, and it remains uncertain whether Harris can consolidate enough backing for a 2028 campaign or if she might opt to pursue the safer route of running for California governor in 2026. However, if she does choose to run for president again, she could very well start in a favorable position.
Meanwhile, outgoing Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg retains a loyal following and has proven to be a gracious presence even on networks like Fox News, despite previous airline disruptions occurring on his watch. His advocacy for aggressive antitrust enforcement resonates with Democrats aiming to appeal to working-class voters who feel abandoned by the party.
Nevertheless, questions linger about whether Buttigieg possesses enough experience and credentials to mount a serious presidential campaign. Some speculate he may be considering the Michigan governorship as a stepping stone for future ambitions.
**JD Vance & Donald Trump Jr.: Incoming Administration Winners**
As previously noted, current and former vice presidents tend to have a success story when it comes to winning presidential nominations. By becoming vice president, JD Vance has likely secured his place in the top tier of the 2028 Republican primary. However, caution is warranted, as past vice presidents who faced off against their former running mates have encountered challenges.
Trump hinted at a potential "dynasty" in remarks to Time magazine, indicating the possibility of a successor emerging. Although Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner were prominent figures in Trump’s first administration, Donald Trump Jr. has played a crucial role in shaping the current administration, acting as a gatekeeper for loyalists and ideologues. Trump spoke positively of his son, saying, “I think he’d do very well,” and praised daughter-in-law Lara Trump for her work with the Republican National Committee. Although Lara withdrew from consideration for a vacant Senate seat, Don Jr. remains a key figure within Trump’s inner circle.
While Marco Rubio's previous presidential aspirations fell short, his loyalty over the past eight years has earned him the Secretary of State position in the current administration. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem considered a 2024 run but ultimately gained a critical cabinet position, and both she and Rubio retain a desire to vie for the presidency.
**Ruben Gallego: Senate Winner, Democrat**
Among the four Democrats who won Senate races in states where Harris lost, Ruben Gallego distinguished himself by securing a majority vote, surpassing Harris by more than half a percentage point. His appeal, particularly among Latino voters, was notable. In the wake of Harris’ defeat, Gallego's campaign was effective, utilizing an understanding of the political and cultural dynamics at play.
Incumbent senators faced challenges establishing political finesse as outgoing candidates. John Fetterman attempted to pave a centrist path, attributing some blame for Harris' loss to immigration issues, which he discussed publicly. Still, he may have alienated some progressives with his stance on the recent Gaza conflict.
**Marco Rubio: Senate Winner, Republican**
The path to the presidency appears rocky for sitting senators given historical trends. Marco Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State may provide him with an edge for a 2028 run. Meanwhile, the Virginia governor’s race saw Glenn Youngkin successfully maintain his popularity without directly pursuing the presidency. Still, a precarious political future looms.
**Andy Beshear: Gubernatorial Winner, Democrat**
Among governors, Andy Beshear of Kentucky demonstrated strong electoral resilience by winning reelection in a red state, earning praise from Democrats. His accomplishments include pushing back against anti-abortion and anti-transgender legislation.
In contrast, swing state governors like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro and Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer struggled to bolster Democratic turnout during the presidential election cycle. Their absence from the ticket hindered their ability to galvanize voters effectively.
**Brian Kemp: Gubernatorial Winner, Republican**
Amid the political landscape, Brian Kemp of Georgia stands out. His reelection in 2022 without help from Trump solidified his base, which has grown increasingly united even as he navigated tensions with the former president. An October poll indicates Kemp's approval rating is strong, and he might be positioned as a favorable non-Trump Republican candidate for 2028.
**Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: House Winner, Democrat**
Finally, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from the House boasts a significant national profile, positioning her well despite the challenges facing "the Squad." She has made strategic moves to align her campaign with party interests, such as endorsing the Harris-Walz ticket and supporting Democratic infrastructure.
As the primary landscape unfolds, contenders from all arenas will need to navigate a complex and evolving political environment leading to the 2028 election.
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
