Survey reveals debate setback for Biden; positions Harris and Clinton as top contenders for victory

A leading Democratic pollster's new survey suggests that despite President Joe Biden still posing competition against Donald Trump, the risk of him losing the election is growing while other potential Democratic candidates are gaining momentum.

The nationwide survey executed by Bendixen & Amandi, showed Biden trailing Trump by 1 percent (42 percent to 43 percent), following Biden's politically unfortunate debate. The results of this study were initially shared with POLITICO.

Notably, out of the 86 percent of likely voters who followed the debate, a mere 29 percent believed that Biden has the mental and physical capabilities to complete another four-year term - in contrast to 61 percent say he does not. Furthermore, just one-third of the respondents said he should remain as the Democratic nominee, against 52 percent who believe otherwise. Half of the Democrats surveyed echoed the same sentiment about Biden's fitness for another term.

Moving on, the survey found Vice President Kamala Harris to be outperforming Trump by 42 percent to 41 percent. In a surprising turn, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has not been a hot topic among voters worried about Biden's precarious situation, is ahead of Harris by a small margin leading Trump by 43 percent to 41 percent.

Additionally, the poll evaluated other potential Democratic tickets and Clinton and Harris's combination seems to be the most robust. With Clinton as the president and Harris as her vice president, they are leading Trump by 43 percent to 40 percent, gaining a four-point advantage over Biden-Harris.

Fernand Amandi, the experienced pollster behind the survey, underlined the fact that over one-third of Democrats don't perceive Biden as fit to run the race. Amandi noted, "Voters have serious doubts about President Biden's advanced age and their concerns have only grown with time. However, it has not yet reached a point where it has made the race a certainty for Trump."

Furthermore, Amandi expressed surprise at Clinton's impressive performance. According to him, despite many dismissing her as a candidate of the past, this poll suggests voters might be open to a Clinton comeback. He even pointed out that a ticket with Clinton as president and Harris as vice president could prove to be 'stronger together' - a throwback to Clinton's unsuccessful 2016 campaign slogan.

The poll also indicated that other prominent Democrats, who could potentially run if Biden steps out, are still behind both Harris and Trump. For example, California's Governor Gavin Newsom trails Trump by 37 percent to 40 percent, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is just a bit further behind, at 36 percent to 40 percent.

The new survey was conducted from July 2 to July 6, with 1,000 likely voters in November. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. The results come at a time when an increasing number of Democratic officials, donors, and activists are pushing Biden to drop out following his unsettling June 27 debate against Trump.

Anthony Williams, at Bendixen & Amandi, believes this reflects voters' preference for a candidate with international experience. He said, "It seems voters aren't simply reacting impulsively to popular names. They want, and are struggling to find, a balance between experience and novelty."

A Democratic ticket with Harris leading the way as the presidential nominee and Pennsylvania's Governor Josh Shapiro as her VP is leading Trump by two percent. Conversely, a Harris-led ticket with Whitmer as VP is trailing Trump by 2 percent.

Clinton, although older than Biden and Trump, has publicly vowed not to run for president again. Shapiro and other surrogates have reaffirmed their support for Biden despite his disastrous debate. Meanwhile, Biden continues to campaign, dismissing calls for him to step down and assuring the public that he was merely suffering from a cold during the debate and does not need a cognitive examination.

The study had an intriguing question; it asked voters if they would still vote for Biden, knowing he may have cognitive problems due to his age, if it meant hindering Trump from winning. 44 percent said they still would support Biden, including 75 percent of Democrats. The strongest demographic group supporting Biden was African-American voters, with 55 percent confirming they would vote for him regardless of any age-related impairment.

These responses, according to Amandi, helped to highlight that a significant segment of election voters still see Trump as a considerable threat, regardless of their concerns about Biden's age and capabilities.

Furthermore, 53 percent expressed strong concerns over Trump becoming president again, stating it as a potential "grave danger" to American democracy. The poll also showed that 48 percent of likely voters disagree with the Supreme Court's recent decision about Trump's immunity from criminal prosecutions related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Examining these responses, Amandi said that the debate has significantly shifted perspectives on Biden's campaign and opened up potential alternatives for democratic nominees, namely Clinton and Harris, who have a small but significant lead against Trump.

Max Fischer for TROIB News