Steve Scalise's celebration on pause

After Steve Scalise clinched House Republicans' nod for speaker on Wednesday, he did not deliver a victory speech. He didn’t hold a news conference for cable TV, and champagne was not delivered to his leadership suite.

Instead, within hours, some House Republicans openly doubted that Scalise could ever get elected on the floor.

The House GOP's hoped-for moment of unity never materialized. Scalise secured just 50.7 percent of the conference’s support, an illustration — as if one were ever needed — of how divided House Republicans remain after Kevin McCarthy’s ouster last week.

After the 15 rounds of voting it took for McCarthy to win the job in January — only to be bounced 9 months later — few are ready to declare that Scalise has it locked down. If House Republicans are finally ready to settle into some semblance of normalcy, it wasn’t happening on Wednesday.

While Scalise’s allies had hoped Wednesday’s vote would propel the party to coalesce behind him, Scalise is still laboring to complete what would be a compelling rise to the House's top spot. At least a dozen Republicans have publicly lined up against Scalise, who can only afford to lose four of them on the floor — meaning that he is all but certain to lose on a first ballot.

One bloc is refusing to back anyone besides Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Scalise’s opponent in the speaker race, even though Jordan vowed to support his foe on the floor. Then there are McCarthy loyalists, including centrists in tough districts, many who have known no other leader but the deposed Californian who never fully embraced Scalise.

That’s not to mention the Republicans who simply aren’t convinced Scalise can win the 217 necessary votes on the floor.

“I just don't think Steve's got the votes,” Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) told reporters after huddling with his colleagues in the House Freedom Caucus on Wednesday afternoon. Moore had left the GOP’s internal elections planning to vote for Scalise as speaker on the floor.

But he said he changed his mind after other conservatives argued that Scalise was a “rubber stamp for McCarthy.” Moore said he plans to support Jordan on the floor.

It all amounts to a sense that the House GOP conference is free-falling into a longer limbo. Even the specter of hostilities in the Middle East could not overcome their dissension. On their seventh leader-less day, they're still unable to do much beyond say the Pledge of Allegiance on the floor.

Scalise and his allies had started the day with hope, phoning fellow supporters to argue that they could wrap up both votes — both internally and in the full House — by the end of Wednesday night. They believed they could convince even skeptical Republicans to install a permanent leader as Washington clamors for action to address the conflict in Israel and a shutdown deadline looms five weeks away.

Many Republicans have long admired Scalise, particularly after he survived a shooting at a congressional baseball practice in 2017. He’s now also battling a rare form of blood cancer, which some opponents have privately (and in the case of Georgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, publicly) raised as a reason not to support him.

Behind the scenes, some Jordan supporters are signaling that they believe they can weaken Scalise sufficiently by refusing to bend in their opposition on the House floor.

One scenario that Jordan loyalists have sketched out: forcing Scalise to withdraw entirely if they vote against him on the floor for long enough, clearing the way for Jordan to reemerge as a contender. Or even, perhaps, that such resistance might clear the way for a consensus pick outside of the two contenders.

“Let's be clear, January was a coronation,” said Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who said he remains “very reluctant” to back Scalise because of his position on government funding. “This is a competition, and it's going to be even more difficult.”

Massie insisted that 20-plus Republicans are prepared to oppose Scalise on the floor.

Freedom Caucus members left their meeting, held after Scalise's internal victory in the conference, openly skeptical about a floor vote.

“We should’ve stayed in conference. It was a mistake to break. I think there was a push to try to force it to the floor and now they’re realizing it was a mistake,” said Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who declined to say how he would vote.

Jordan vowed on Wednesday to back Scalise after their two-man race resulted in victory for the Louisianan. But that is so far failing to move conservative votes in sufficient numbers; the Judiciary Committee chair backed McCarthy throughout January's 15-ballot speakership slog, which didn't initially move enough skeptics on the right.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who's eyeing a leadership bid himself, summed it up: “The bigger question is, is there going to be a first ballot? Are we going to the floor? Not sure that's gonna happen."

As of dinnertime Wednesday, the House remained in limbo. Scalise had yet to announce when he would call a formal vote on the floor — the final step to clinch his speakership. But that vote appears increasingly doomed to fail on the first ballot.

(Some Republicans privately pointed out that Scalise only won with the help of three congressional delegates, who aren’t permitted to vote in the later floor election.)

Scalise hasn’t spoken publicly since brief on-camera remarks earlier Wednesday, moments after he won the internal race. Since then, he’s been holed up in his leadership suite, where he secured that promise from Jordan to back him and give a nominating speech on the floor.

He’s also sat down with allies such as Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) and other members of leadership, such as Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who leads the House GOP campaign arm.

Asked when the speakership race might get resolved, Hudson replied: “No idea.”

Hudson was then asked what voters thought about the House GOP dysfunction.

"I think it's important that we resolve this as soon as possible," he replied.

Anthony Adragna contributed.