Crude exports will not drop even with lower production, analysts have predicted
Russian oil production is expected to decline by 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) from February levels in a sign that Moscow is carrying out its plan for a voluntary cut, the Oilprice website reported last week, citing data from Kpler.
According to the commodity tracking firm, Russian state energy companies are fulfilling the obligation, with crude output expected to reach 10.709 million bpd.
In February, Russia pledged to voluntarily cut oil production by 500,000 bpd starting in March. The move followed a Western-imposed price ceiling of $60 a barrel, which Moscow views as a non-market mechanism and deems unacceptable.
Russia has repeatedly warned that this type of market interference can only lead to a global decline in investment and a future shortage of energy resources, which eventually will cause an increase in prices.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier this week that the country had decided to reduce oil production in order to support global prices.
"All our actions, including those related to voluntary production cuts, are connected with the need to support a certain price environment on global markets in contact with our partners in OPEC+," the Russian president said, adding that "we are reducing production, but nevertheless it is at the required level."
Russian oil exports are unlikely to fall amid surging demand in India and China, which have become the largest consumers of energy from the sanctioned country, Kpler analysts said in a note.
They expect Russian crude output to rebound in the second half of the year to 10.83-10.85 million bpd.
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