RFK Jr. backs Trump as he halts his campaign
The departure of the independent candidate will introduce yet another unexpected development in the already tumultuous 2024 race.
TroibNews 
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially endorsed former President Donald Trump on Friday and announced the suspension of his presidential campaign, likely concluding his unconventional bid just months before the November elections.
On the same day, Kennedy's campaign attorney filed documents to withdraw his name from the ballot in Pennsylvania, citing his endorsement of Trump for the presidency. He had already filed to withdraw from another swing state, Arizona, the previous evening.
At a press conference in Arizona, Kennedy told reporters he would "throw my support to President Trump."
While suspending his campaign, Kennedy stated he would remain on the ballot in several states and mentioned that he had been offered a role in a potential second Trump administration.
Kennedy's departure complicates an already tumultuous 2024 presidential race. His unconventional views had garnered support from both Democrats and Republicans, raising concerns within both parties about his potential to be the most significant electoral spoiler in decades.
The upcoming presidential election remains tightly contested, and any shift of Kennedy’s supporters to Trump could prove critical in swing states. "If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris, and in red states the same will apply," Kennedy explained. "But in about 10 battleground states where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m going to remove my name."
Kennedy's anti-vaccine and anti-lockdown perspectives resonated with voters during the Covid-19 pandemic and formed a substantial part of his campaign's support and volunteer base. He also leveraged right-leaning media and the podcast circuit, creating a challenge for Republicans, especially Trump.
Trump has maneuvered cautiously regarding the pandemic throughout his re-election campaign. While his administration's Operation Warp Speed, which funded the development of Covid-19 vaccines, is considered a significant achievement, he has been reluctant to emphasize this during his campaign due to some of his supporters' disdain for vaccine mandates and public health measures.
Mark Gorton, co-founder of the super PAC backing Kennedy, remarked ahead of the endorsement announcement, "I have to imagine that this deal with Bobby is worth several percent for Trump."
Data from Kennedy's campaign showed that many of his donors had a history of contributing to Trump or Republican candidates rather than Democrats. Among Kennedy's roughly 36,000 donors, around 1,000 had also made contributions to the Trump campaign, while fewer than 100 had supported the Biden-Harris campaign.
However, most of Kennedy's donors had not previously financially supported either party, indicating that his independent run engaged a new group of contributors. Approximately 80 percent of his itemized donors had not made prior donations to any other candidate or group since the 2020 election. It remains uncertain where those donors will direct their support with Kennedy out of the race.
Conversely, Democrats are skeptical that Kennedy's supporters will easily pivot to Trump when it comes time to vote. "Polls show the handful of voters who still support RFK Jr. are splitting between Harris and Trump, and election analysts agree that the impact of his exit would be negligible by Election Day,” stated Ramsey Reid in a DNC memo regarding Kennedy’s withdrawal.
Reid's memo also highlighted a decline in Kennedy's favorability as voters learned more about him. Despite his famous family name, Kennedy was relatively unfamiliar to many voters as a first-time candidate, and his public profile diminished when he shifted from environmental law to devote more time to his anti-vaccine non-profit.
“The little support that remains is soft, split across ideologies, and disproportionately among lower propensity voters,” he added. “With no meaningful base of support and sky-high negatives among Democrats, RFK Jr.’s threat to VP Harris was neutralized.”
Tony Fabrizio, the lead pollster for the Trump campaign, characterized Kennedy’s withdrawal and endorsement as “good news” for Trump. He indicated that their internal polling showed that voters in most battleground states who initially selected Kennedy were much more likely to choose Trump when the race narrowed to the two major-party candidates.
Nonetheless, due to Kennedy's declining poll numbers, the sample size of his supporters in any particular survey has often been too small for definitive conclusions. However, aggregated public polling mostly aligns with the Trump campaign's assertion of a potential slight boost for Trump following Kennedy's departure.
In a recent survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College among likely voters across seven battleground states, the 5 percent of respondents who would have voted for Kennedy leaned towards Trump, earning him 44 percent compared to 25 percent for Harris. This was reflected particularly in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. About 30 percent remained undecided.
In contrast, polling results from the four “Sun Belt” states, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, showed a more divided response. The average support for Kennedy was recorded at 4 percent, with Trump receiving 38 percent and Harris 36 percent of the vote among those questioned about their preferences in a two-candidate matchup, while 27 percent were undecided.
Kennedy's endorsement of Trump had been in preparation for weeks and began shortly after a phone call between them following an attempted assassination on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. The initial contact was facilitated by conservative media figure Tucker Carlson, who had close ties with both men, marking their first communication during the election cycle. Donald Trump Jr. and Omeed Malik, a friend of Kennedy's and Trump donor, subsequently aided discussions between the two campaigns after Don Jr. expressed concern over Kennedy's potential to attract Trump-aligned voters.
In the days leading up to the announcement, the two teams discussed how best to unveil the endorsement, with plans for a joint appearance on Friday in Arizona, a pivotal swing state.
"It's an honor. He just announced, and it's a great honor, really is," Trump said during a rally in Las Vegas on Friday.
Kennedy's most prominent moment in the race emerged when the super PAC American Values 2024 spent around $4 million to air an advertisement during the Super Bowl in February. This ad brought national attention to Kennedy, and its architect and financial backer, Nicole Shanahan, later joined him as his running mate, financing the campaign’s operations for the following six months.
Shanahan, who invested nearly $20 million in Kennedy’s presidential campaign, clarified in a recent podcast that she had not participated in any discussions with Trump. She posted on X leading up to the announcement, “I’m not a Kamala Democrat. I’m not a Trump Republican [sic]. I’m an INDEPENDENT American …”
As a first-time candidate, Kennedy encountered challenges in maintaining a serious independent campaign. He initially avoided collaboration with established third parties, later sought the Libertarian Party nomination at the last moment, and ultimately aligned with the Natural Law Party, which has a pre-existing ballot line in California.
In various states, his campaign experienced both collaborations and legal challenges regarding his ballot presence, consuming valuable time and resources. By early summer, as his campaign should have intensified on the trail, Kennedy reduced his appearances, primarily attending events organized by external organizations, such as Freedom Fest and Bitcoin conferences.
His anti-establishment message seemed to resonate with those typically disengaged from politics, mobilizing a network of committed volunteers largely motivated by his anti-vaccine advocacy.
Kennedy remains on the ballot in several states, including crucial swing states like North Carolina and Michigan. Doug Dern, Chair of the Natural Law Party, stated, “He gave a commitment to run as our presidential candidate.” He added, “I’m sticking with Kennedy unless his lawyer starts calling me and trying to bully me around.”
Steve Shepard, Alex Isenstadt, and Kierra Frazier contributed to this report.
Alejandro Jose Martinez contributed to this report for TROIB News
On the same day, Kennedy's campaign attorney filed documents to withdraw his name from the ballot in Pennsylvania, citing his endorsement of Trump for the presidency. He had already filed to withdraw from another swing state, Arizona, the previous evening.
At a press conference in Arizona, Kennedy told reporters he would "throw my support to President Trump."
While suspending his campaign, Kennedy stated he would remain on the ballot in several states and mentioned that he had been offered a role in a potential second Trump administration.
Kennedy's departure complicates an already tumultuous 2024 presidential race. His unconventional views had garnered support from both Democrats and Republicans, raising concerns within both parties about his potential to be the most significant electoral spoiler in decades.
The upcoming presidential election remains tightly contested, and any shift of Kennedy’s supporters to Trump could prove critical in swing states. "If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris, and in red states the same will apply," Kennedy explained. "But in about 10 battleground states where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m going to remove my name."
Kennedy's anti-vaccine and anti-lockdown perspectives resonated with voters during the Covid-19 pandemic and formed a substantial part of his campaign's support and volunteer base. He also leveraged right-leaning media and the podcast circuit, creating a challenge for Republicans, especially Trump.
Trump has maneuvered cautiously regarding the pandemic throughout his re-election campaign. While his administration's Operation Warp Speed, which funded the development of Covid-19 vaccines, is considered a significant achievement, he has been reluctant to emphasize this during his campaign due to some of his supporters' disdain for vaccine mandates and public health measures.
Mark Gorton, co-founder of the super PAC backing Kennedy, remarked ahead of the endorsement announcement, "I have to imagine that this deal with Bobby is worth several percent for Trump."
Data from Kennedy's campaign showed that many of his donors had a history of contributing to Trump or Republican candidates rather than Democrats. Among Kennedy's roughly 36,000 donors, around 1,000 had also made contributions to the Trump campaign, while fewer than 100 had supported the Biden-Harris campaign.
However, most of Kennedy's donors had not previously financially supported either party, indicating that his independent run engaged a new group of contributors. Approximately 80 percent of his itemized donors had not made prior donations to any other candidate or group since the 2020 election. It remains uncertain where those donors will direct their support with Kennedy out of the race.
Conversely, Democrats are skeptical that Kennedy's supporters will easily pivot to Trump when it comes time to vote. "Polls show the handful of voters who still support RFK Jr. are splitting between Harris and Trump, and election analysts agree that the impact of his exit would be negligible by Election Day,” stated Ramsey Reid in a DNC memo regarding Kennedy’s withdrawal.
Reid's memo also highlighted a decline in Kennedy's favorability as voters learned more about him. Despite his famous family name, Kennedy was relatively unfamiliar to many voters as a first-time candidate, and his public profile diminished when he shifted from environmental law to devote more time to his anti-vaccine non-profit.
“The little support that remains is soft, split across ideologies, and disproportionately among lower propensity voters,” he added. “With no meaningful base of support and sky-high negatives among Democrats, RFK Jr.’s threat to VP Harris was neutralized.”
Tony Fabrizio, the lead pollster for the Trump campaign, characterized Kennedy’s withdrawal and endorsement as “good news” for Trump. He indicated that their internal polling showed that voters in most battleground states who initially selected Kennedy were much more likely to choose Trump when the race narrowed to the two major-party candidates.
Nonetheless, due to Kennedy's declining poll numbers, the sample size of his supporters in any particular survey has often been too small for definitive conclusions. However, aggregated public polling mostly aligns with the Trump campaign's assertion of a potential slight boost for Trump following Kennedy's departure.
In a recent survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College among likely voters across seven battleground states, the 5 percent of respondents who would have voted for Kennedy leaned towards Trump, earning him 44 percent compared to 25 percent for Harris. This was reflected particularly in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. About 30 percent remained undecided.
In contrast, polling results from the four “Sun Belt” states, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, showed a more divided response. The average support for Kennedy was recorded at 4 percent, with Trump receiving 38 percent and Harris 36 percent of the vote among those questioned about their preferences in a two-candidate matchup, while 27 percent were undecided.
Kennedy's endorsement of Trump had been in preparation for weeks and began shortly after a phone call between them following an attempted assassination on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. The initial contact was facilitated by conservative media figure Tucker Carlson, who had close ties with both men, marking their first communication during the election cycle. Donald Trump Jr. and Omeed Malik, a friend of Kennedy's and Trump donor, subsequently aided discussions between the two campaigns after Don Jr. expressed concern over Kennedy's potential to attract Trump-aligned voters.
In the days leading up to the announcement, the two teams discussed how best to unveil the endorsement, with plans for a joint appearance on Friday in Arizona, a pivotal swing state.
"It's an honor. He just announced, and it's a great honor, really is," Trump said during a rally in Las Vegas on Friday.
Kennedy's most prominent moment in the race emerged when the super PAC American Values 2024 spent around $4 million to air an advertisement during the Super Bowl in February. This ad brought national attention to Kennedy, and its architect and financial backer, Nicole Shanahan, later joined him as his running mate, financing the campaign’s operations for the following six months.
Shanahan, who invested nearly $20 million in Kennedy’s presidential campaign, clarified in a recent podcast that she had not participated in any discussions with Trump. She posted on X leading up to the announcement, “I’m not a Kamala Democrat. I’m not a Trump Republican [sic]. I’m an INDEPENDENT American …”
As a first-time candidate, Kennedy encountered challenges in maintaining a serious independent campaign. He initially avoided collaboration with established third parties, later sought the Libertarian Party nomination at the last moment, and ultimately aligned with the Natural Law Party, which has a pre-existing ballot line in California.
In various states, his campaign experienced both collaborations and legal challenges regarding his ballot presence, consuming valuable time and resources. By early summer, as his campaign should have intensified on the trail, Kennedy reduced his appearances, primarily attending events organized by external organizations, such as Freedom Fest and Bitcoin conferences.
His anti-establishment message seemed to resonate with those typically disengaged from politics, mobilizing a network of committed volunteers largely motivated by his anti-vaccine advocacy.
Kennedy remains on the ballot in several states, including crucial swing states like North Carolina and Michigan. Doug Dern, Chair of the Natural Law Party, stated, “He gave a commitment to run as our presidential candidate.” He added, “I’m sticking with Kennedy unless his lawyer starts calling me and trying to bully me around.”
Steve Shepard, Alex Isenstadt, and Kierra Frazier contributed to this report.
Alejandro Jose Martinez contributed to this report for TROIB News
