Republicans secure victory in both Florida special elections but fall short of expectations
Once a battleground, Florida has shifted firmly into the deep red column. However, Democrats found reasons to celebrate a performance that exceeded their expectations.
TroibNews 
Democrats were unable to secure victories in two House special elections in Florida, despite significant financial backing. President Donald Trump also played a role by sending MAGA surrogates to the state.
Nevertheless, there are some positive takeaways for Democrats, particularly in close margins.
The results add to Speaker Mike Johnson's slim majority in the House. The special election in Florida’s 6th District was particularly tense for national GOP operatives, as state Sen. Randy Fine faced a progressive challenger, Josh Weil, who raised funds at a rate of 10-to-1 but ultimately lost to Fine.
Unexpectedly, the night’s highlight came from the Panhandle’s 1st District, where former Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis narrowly defeated Democrat Gay Valimont, a result that surprised many operatives leading up to the elections.
Valimont made history by being the first Democrat in recent memory to win in Escambia County, which encompasses military-heavy Pensacola.
“Tonight’s results represent a historic overperformance for Democrats and show that voters are already rejecting Trump’s extreme agenda,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. She noted that any Republicans in seats where Trump won by 15 points or less “should be scared about their reelection chances.”
Democrats heavily invested in the 6th District, with Weil reporting $14 million raised, largely through digital fundraising, drawing significant out-of-state contributions. Fine, on the other hand, did not break the $1 million mark by mid-March, benefiting instead from a last-minute boost of outside funds. When addressing the press about Valimont's fundraising efforts, Patronis remarked, “Even their $6 million could not overcome one simple post on social media by Donald Trump.”
The Fine race garnered national attention, including a visit from Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, who commented on the overperformance of Democrats when considering that Trump had won each seat by over 30 points in the previous election. Fine and Patronis achieved victories of 14 and 15 points, respectively. Martin asserted that the results indicated voters wanted to “voice their anger at Donald Trump and Elon Musk,” warning that a “reckoning is coming” in 2026.
In the lead-up to the elections, Republicans deployed national and state reinforcements to support Fine’s campaign, including Trump’s involvement through a tele-town hall, rather than a rally or video appearance. This MAGA strategy ultimately proved effective in districts where Republicans hold a significant advantage over Democrats.
Prominent Democrats frequently assert the importance of Florida due to its increasing electoral significance. However, Tuesday’s losses, despite their narrow margins, have prompted some party supporters to advise a more strategic approach in candidate selection.
“Democrats can be suckers,” lamented prominent trial attorney John Morgan, an unaffiliated voter who has supported Democratic candidates financially. “They pour money into a race where they have zero chance. But their desire is so overwhelming they blow money.”
He recommended that Democrats “play where you can win” and suggested they let Trump’s early actions elicit responses before entering the fray, adding, “Money won't buy you love,” along with a link to a YouTube video featuring the Beatles’ classic.
Gov. Ron DeSantis, who previously held the 6th District seat, took jabs at Fine throughout the evening. Their conflicts arose after Fine switched his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump during the 2024 presidential primaries, coupled with various disagreements with local officials.
“The president got really bad advice about endorsing him and was told that he was the only candidate that could win,” DeSantis remarked on The Dana Show with Dana Loesch, adding that this was “totally not true.”
The 1st District seat had been occupied by former Rep. Matt Gaetz until he resigned to pursue a failed confirmation bid for Trump’s attorney general. Valimont targeted Patronis for living outside the district when she entered the race and for his role in the state's insurance crisis.
Her campaign also addressed federal budget cuts, particularly to the Department of Veterans Affairs, as reasons for voters in the military-centric district to reconsider their support for Republicans.
Democrats celebrated Valimont’s performance in Escambia County, with Martin stating that her results “spell trouble for Republicans everywhere.”
Conversely, Republicans downplayed the unexpectedly close results.
“Since 2015, we've run more than a dozen specials in Florida, and each one is unique and each one is indeed special,” asserted veteran Florida Republican political consultant Anthony Pedicini. “All that matters is that our team won. If it was 1 vote or 20 — point is, a win is a win.”
Sen. Rick Scott also dismissed special elections as anomalies, explaining, "When there's a presidential race, everybody knows to go vote — even a governor's race, but when there's a special election, it's hard to get people to go out and vote."
GOP officials expressed confidence as turnout numbers began to roll in on Tuesday afternoon. Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power shared a meme on X of a dumpster on fire being carried along by floodwaters, labeled, “Everything’s fine.”
“The smell of them burning $20 Million!!!” RPOF Executive Director Bill Helmich quipped, referring to the substantial fundraising that benefited Democrats in the races.
As the evening concluded, Power stated that the results “[reinforce] the state’s position as the cornerstone of the conservative movement” in light of the significant funding disparity.
The Republican wins will likely prompt Democrats to reevaluate their strategies in Florida as they navigate the complexities of the Trump era. State Rep. Anna Eskamani, a progressive campaigning for mayor of Orlando, where Weil resides, emphasized the need for continued grassroots organization: “register voters, and prove our value as Democrats to voters.”
Weil, a public school teacher, attributed his campaign's success to progressive messaging, particularly his emphasis on “Medicare for All,” a policy championed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont that advocates for replacing private health insurance with a single, government-run health plan.
“It's a popular talking point with seniors,” he noted. “It's a popular talking point with veterans. It's a popular talking point with everyone. … No one loves their health insurance company, no one — not Republicans, not Democrats.”
“Trying to sell Republicans on a Democrat that's Republican-light,” he added, “is never going to work.”
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
Nevertheless, there are some positive takeaways for Democrats, particularly in close margins.
The results add to Speaker Mike Johnson's slim majority in the House. The special election in Florida’s 6th District was particularly tense for national GOP operatives, as state Sen. Randy Fine faced a progressive challenger, Josh Weil, who raised funds at a rate of 10-to-1 but ultimately lost to Fine.
Unexpectedly, the night’s highlight came from the Panhandle’s 1st District, where former Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis narrowly defeated Democrat Gay Valimont, a result that surprised many operatives leading up to the elections.
Valimont made history by being the first Democrat in recent memory to win in Escambia County, which encompasses military-heavy Pensacola.
“Tonight’s results represent a historic overperformance for Democrats and show that voters are already rejecting Trump’s extreme agenda,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. She noted that any Republicans in seats where Trump won by 15 points or less “should be scared about their reelection chances.”
Democrats heavily invested in the 6th District, with Weil reporting $14 million raised, largely through digital fundraising, drawing significant out-of-state contributions. Fine, on the other hand, did not break the $1 million mark by mid-March, benefiting instead from a last-minute boost of outside funds. When addressing the press about Valimont's fundraising efforts, Patronis remarked, “Even their $6 million could not overcome one simple post on social media by Donald Trump.”
The Fine race garnered national attention, including a visit from Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, who commented on the overperformance of Democrats when considering that Trump had won each seat by over 30 points in the previous election. Fine and Patronis achieved victories of 14 and 15 points, respectively. Martin asserted that the results indicated voters wanted to “voice their anger at Donald Trump and Elon Musk,” warning that a “reckoning is coming” in 2026.
In the lead-up to the elections, Republicans deployed national and state reinforcements to support Fine’s campaign, including Trump’s involvement through a tele-town hall, rather than a rally or video appearance. This MAGA strategy ultimately proved effective in districts where Republicans hold a significant advantage over Democrats.
Prominent Democrats frequently assert the importance of Florida due to its increasing electoral significance. However, Tuesday’s losses, despite their narrow margins, have prompted some party supporters to advise a more strategic approach in candidate selection.
“Democrats can be suckers,” lamented prominent trial attorney John Morgan, an unaffiliated voter who has supported Democratic candidates financially. “They pour money into a race where they have zero chance. But their desire is so overwhelming they blow money.”
He recommended that Democrats “play where you can win” and suggested they let Trump’s early actions elicit responses before entering the fray, adding, “Money won't buy you love,” along with a link to a YouTube video featuring the Beatles’ classic.
Gov. Ron DeSantis, who previously held the 6th District seat, took jabs at Fine throughout the evening. Their conflicts arose after Fine switched his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump during the 2024 presidential primaries, coupled with various disagreements with local officials.
“The president got really bad advice about endorsing him and was told that he was the only candidate that could win,” DeSantis remarked on The Dana Show with Dana Loesch, adding that this was “totally not true.”
The 1st District seat had been occupied by former Rep. Matt Gaetz until he resigned to pursue a failed confirmation bid for Trump’s attorney general. Valimont targeted Patronis for living outside the district when she entered the race and for his role in the state's insurance crisis.
Her campaign also addressed federal budget cuts, particularly to the Department of Veterans Affairs, as reasons for voters in the military-centric district to reconsider their support for Republicans.
Democrats celebrated Valimont’s performance in Escambia County, with Martin stating that her results “spell trouble for Republicans everywhere.”
Conversely, Republicans downplayed the unexpectedly close results.
“Since 2015, we've run more than a dozen specials in Florida, and each one is unique and each one is indeed special,” asserted veteran Florida Republican political consultant Anthony Pedicini. “All that matters is that our team won. If it was 1 vote or 20 — point is, a win is a win.”
Sen. Rick Scott also dismissed special elections as anomalies, explaining, "When there's a presidential race, everybody knows to go vote — even a governor's race, but when there's a special election, it's hard to get people to go out and vote."
GOP officials expressed confidence as turnout numbers began to roll in on Tuesday afternoon. Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power shared a meme on X of a dumpster on fire being carried along by floodwaters, labeled, “Everything’s fine.”
“The smell of them burning $20 Million!!!” RPOF Executive Director Bill Helmich quipped, referring to the substantial fundraising that benefited Democrats in the races.
As the evening concluded, Power stated that the results “[reinforce] the state’s position as the cornerstone of the conservative movement” in light of the significant funding disparity.
The Republican wins will likely prompt Democrats to reevaluate their strategies in Florida as they navigate the complexities of the Trump era. State Rep. Anna Eskamani, a progressive campaigning for mayor of Orlando, where Weil resides, emphasized the need for continued grassroots organization: “register voters, and prove our value as Democrats to voters.”
Weil, a public school teacher, attributed his campaign's success to progressive messaging, particularly his emphasis on “Medicare for All,” a policy championed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont that advocates for replacing private health insurance with a single, government-run health plan.
“It's a popular talking point with seniors,” he noted. “It's a popular talking point with veterans. It's a popular talking point with everyone. … No one loves their health insurance company, no one — not Republicans, not Democrats.”
“Trying to sell Republicans on a Democrat that's Republican-light,” he added, “is never going to work.”
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
