Nuclear Negotiations Tested: Will the U.S. and Iran Establish a Fresh Agreement?
Sure! Here’s a rewritten version of the article description without altering the quotations: "Exploring the precarious state of international relations, this article delves into the critical question: Can the U.S. navigate the challenges facing diplomacy today?"

These talks, mediated by Oman, represent a rare diplomatic initiative since the U.S. unilaterally exited the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and reinstated sanctions. Under the terms of that agreement, Iran had committed to limiting uranium enrichment in exchange for relief from sanctions. However, since 2018, Iran has violated the JCPOA's restrictions, accumulating 274.8 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity—close to weapons-grade levels—while asserting that its nuclear goals are peaceful.
U.S. President Donald Trump, currently in his second term, has characterized the negotiations as a crucial effort to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, cautioning that military action may be necessary if diplomatic efforts fail. Two rounds of indirect talks have taken place between Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat and Rome, with plans for technical experts to begin drafting the specifics of an agreement this week.
Araghchi has stressed Iran's "red lines," which include maintaining uranium enrichment capabilities and rejecting demands to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. Initially, the U.S. pushed for complete disarmament but now seems willing to accept a cap on enrichment at 3.67 percent, in line with JCPOA stipulations—a position briefly supported by Witkoff before he retracted.
Divisions within the Trump administration have complicated the path forward, contributing to inconsistent public statements. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio advocate for the total dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, while more pragmatic voices express openness to monitored enrichment.
Iran, in turn, is seeking guarantees against another U.S. withdrawal, along with sanctions relief that would provide tangible benefits to its economy. "All sanctions should be lifted in a way that benefits the Iranian people," stated Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi on Sunday.
However, long-standing mutual distrust complicates these negotiations, rooted in decades of fractured relations, historical grievances, and heightened tensions from recent provocations. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who condemned discussions with the U.S. as "neither logical nor honorable" just two months ago, now tentatively supports the negotiations but insists that Tehran will retaliate if attacked.
"We are not pursuing weapons, but if bombed, Iran will have no choice but to reconsider," warned Khamenei's advisor Ali Larijani. For the U.S., skepticism continues regarding Iran's willingness to accept intrusive inspections or abandon its allies, such as Yemen's Houthis—a goal also sought by the Trump administration.
Moreover, external opposition has added another layer of complexity to the talks. Israel, which demands a "Libya-style" dismantlement and rejects any deals short of this, has threatened unilateral strikes on Iranian facilities. Trump has tried to rein in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, expressing a preference for diplomacy but cautioning that Iran would face "great danger" if talks fail. Nonetheless, Israeli officials appear to be contemplating a limited attack on Iran, according to reports from Reuters, which could jeopardize any diplomatic progress.
Despite these obstacles, some analysts contend that the mutual desire of both the U.S. and Iran to avoid war enhances the possibility of an eventual deal. Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a scholar at Princeton University and former Iranian negotiator, identifies five areas of agreement: mutual opposition to nuclear weapons, a shared aversion to war, the U.S. disavowal of intentions to topple the Iranian leadership, economic incentives, and a preference for diplomatic solutions.
Navid Kalantari for TROIB News
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