New Hampshire isn’t feeling the 2024 love

DERRY, N.H. — The stream of would-be presidential hopefuls that typically flows through New Hampshire has slowed to a trickle ahead of November.

Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) haven’t set foot in the state since the summer. Former Vice President Mike Pence headlined a fundraiser for Republican Senate nominee Don Bolduc the day after the state’s Sept. 13 primary and never came back. Former President Donald Trump has endorsed both Republican House candidates but is nowhere to be seen.

The cast of characters has dwindled on the Democratic side, too. President Joe Biden has been to reliably blue Massachusetts more times this year than to purple New Hampshire, which he last visited in April.

“It’s confusing to me for a couple of reasons,” Republican consultant Mike Dennehy, who advised one of Bolduc’s primary rivals, said in an interview. “You have New Hampshire being one of the top U.S. Senate races in the country. And you have New Hampshire as the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. So where are all the political celebrities?”

Several polls show Bolduc’s race against Sen. Maggie Hassan within the margin of error. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas’ contest against Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump White House press aide, is rated a toss-up.

But Republican resources and Democratic attention have largely shifted to other states. Neighboring Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have been helping Democrats in Oregon and elsewhere. Cruz, who campaigned for Leavitt ahead of the September primary and endorsed Bolduc earlier this month, has been spotted in recent days with Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker and North Carolina Republicans Ted Budd and Bo Hines instead.

There are a few factors at play: Voters nominated a slate of hard-right, pro-Trump nominees against Hassan, Pappas and Rep. Annie Kuster, seemingly cutting the Democratic incumbents a break in a state Trump lost twice and complicating the endorsement calculus for those trying to distance themselves from the former president.

Uncertainties also abound about the next presidential contest. Democrats are weighing whether to rejigger their primary calendar, potentially jeopardizing New Hampshire’s storied status. And the possibility of a 2024 rematch between Trump and Biden is casting a shadow over the primaries — potentially diminishing New Hampshire’s allure.

“People are viewing New Hampshire as a limited pasture right now,” Patrick Griffin, a GOP strategist who’s been a media consultant on presidential campaigns and for Republicans’ Senate and House campaign arms, said in an interview.

Some big names have still swung through. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard stumped for Bolduc this month — with Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who leads the Republican Senate campaign arm, expected to follow. Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) and first lady Jill Biden have hit the trail for Hassan.

Other Republicans — outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo among them — have come through for “Politics and Eggs,” the New Hampshire Institute of Politics and Saint Anselm College speaker series that’s a must-stop for presidential hopefuls. But they left without stumping for Bolduc, Leavitt or Bob Burns, who’s challenging Kuster. Pompeo recently endorsed Bolduc — as have Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) — but hasn’t campaigned with him in person.

Then there’s closely watched Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, who hasn’t set foot here — despite some prodding.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie came to New England this month — to campaign for Republican Allan Fung, who polls show has the edge in Rhode Island’s hotly contested congressional race. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who’s up for reelection in November, ran digital ads in New Hampshire and other early-voting states over the summer. But when she came east in August, it was to campaign for Massachusetts’ Republican gubernatorial nominee Geoff Diehl.

There’s been a similar dearth of top-tier politicians on the Democratic side. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker headlined the state party’s convention in June — where Labor Secretary Marty Walsh also spoke — but has since been spending his time on his reelection bid and his money on candidates in other states. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg headlined a major party fundraising dinner in September. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) was last here for a dinner in March.

And those who have campaigned for Bolduc or Hassan have played coy about their future plans as they try to balance their own self-interests with those of Trump or Biden.

Booker joked while campaigning with Hassan and Pappas in a Derry coffee shop last week that he’d spent a lot of time in the state two years ago. He called himself “a guy who has a lot of love for the Granite State” and said he wants to keep it “at the top of our primary list.”

But he also listed off the Biden administration’s legislative wins — including bipartisan infrastructure and gun safety bills — and said “I’m just one of those people who believe President Biden should run for reelection on that record.”

Haley, the former Trump administration ambassador to the United Nations, didn’t acknowledge a reporter’s question earlier this month about potential dual motives about her trips to campaign for Bolduc.

“He’s a veteran who just wants to see America get back to what she is, which is great. And I could not be more excited than to help him,” Haley said in response. “This is my second time coming, and if I need to come back, I’ll come back.”

Other Republican visitors to New Hampshire have been more open about their ambitions. Pompeo said his September visit for “Politics and Eggs” was “not random.” A month later he told CBS News he’ll make a decision by the spring on whether to run for president — regardless of Trump.

Jim Demers, a longtime New Hampshire Democratic operative and lobbyist who backed Booker in 2020 before moving to Biden, said in an interview that “the big difference here is the Republican candidates or elected officials who are coming here are very clear that they’re testing the waters for 2024.”

Democrats, he said, “are coming here — I think most of them — with an expectation that President Biden is going to run again.”

But, Demers said as he watched Booker, Hassan and Pappas make their rounds in the small Derry coffee shop, if Biden “decides not to run, they’ve laid a little foundation.”