Nevada looms as question mark in Democrats' Senate defense

After nearly two months of lagging behind her GOP challenger in every publicly released poll, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto finally edged in front in a new Nevada survey this week.

But that poll, from Suffolk University and USA Today, wasn't necessarily good news for Democrats' most vulnerable Senate incumbent.

The toplines showed Cortez Masto, who is seeking a second term, leading GOP nominee Adam Laxalt, 46 percent to 44 percent. That's still better than trailing, but it's also well within the survey's margin of error, and Cortez Masto's vote share is well under the 50 percent threshold that's considered dry land for incumbents.

That axiom of politics — incumbents under 50 percent are in big trouble — may not be absolute in Cortez Masto's case.

Whether Cortez Masto can overcome Laxalt given her low poll numbers isn't just an academic argument. Republicans need to net one seat, and given that they trail in the polls in Pennsylvania, almost every realistic path to a GOP Senate majority begins with flipping Nevada.

Here's what the polls said in Nevada and beyond about the battle to control the Senate this week:

1.

Arizona

MARK KELLY (D) vs. Blake Masters (R)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Democratic
RCP polling average: Kelly +4.5 (Last week: Kelly +4.1)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: Biden +2.7
Eventual margin: Biden +0.3

Arizona saw two new polls this week with diverging results — though Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is the leader in both.

The first poll, from the Phoenix-based firm OH Predictive Insights, made waves: It showed Kelly with a yawning, 13-point lead over Republican Blake Masters, 46 percent to 33 percent. Kelly's large advantage was mostly thanks to Libertarian Marc Victor, who was at 15 percent in the poll, though he has barely registered in other public surveys. (RealClearPolitics' average, referenced above, doesn't include this poll.)

The other, commissioned from the Georgia-based InsiderAdvantage by KSAZ-TV in Phoenix, staked Kelly to a 4-point lead over Masters, 46 percent to 42 percent, with Victor at just 5 percent.

Both surveys show Kelly at just 46 percent, treacherous territory for an incumbent. although Masters seems ill-equipped to take advantage. A majority of likely voters in the OH Predictive Insights poll, 51 percent, had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican.

2.

Colorado

MICHAEL BENNET (D) vs. Joe O'Dea (R)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Democratic
RCP polling average: Bennet +7.7 (Last week: Bennet +8.3)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: No average
Eventual margin: Biden +13.5

A Marist College poll released this week gave Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet a 6-point lead over Republican Joe O'Dea — which narrowed the average slightly, but still showed Bennet at a healthier 49 percent vote share.

3.

Florida

MARCO RUBIO (R) vs. Val Demings (D)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican
RCP polling average: Rubio +4.7 (Last week: Rubio +4)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: Biden +3.9
Eventual margin: Trump +3.3

No new polls came out this week in Florida, where recovery continues along the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Ian.

4.

Georgia

RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D) vs. Herschel Walker (R)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Toss Up
RCP polling average: Warnock +3.3 (Last week: Warnock +3.8)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: Trump +0.4
Eventual margin: Biden +0.3

Six new polls were released this week, though only four of them were conducted entirely after news stories earlier this month about Republican Herschel Walker's ex-girlfriend, who accused the candidate of paying for an abortion 13 years ago.

Warnock led all six surveys, though by varying margins, from just a 1-point edge in a poll from the Republican-friendly firm Trafalgar Group, to a 12-point blowout in a WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA poll. But, by and large, most polls still give Warnock a low-single-digit lead on the margin — and still shy of the 50-percent threshold needed to clinch victory without a December runoff.

In all, Walker's numbers have ticked down slightly over the past two weeks. (All of the polls were conducted prior to Friday night's debate between the two men, the only scheduled meeting before the election.)

5.

Nevada

CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D) vs. Adam Laxalt (R)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Toss Up
RCP polling average: Laxalt +1.7 (Last week: Laxalt +2.1)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: Biden +6
Eventual margin: Biden +2.7

The Suffolk University/USA Today poll was the only new survey this week in Nevada.

And while Cortez Masto was at just 46 percent, that's close to the 47.1 percent she earned in 2016, when she defeated then-Rep. Joe Heck (R-Nev.) to win an open seat.

There are three third-party or independent candidates on the ballot this fall — in addition to Nevada's infamous "None of these candidates" option — so the prevailing candidate could win without a majority of the vote in a close race.

6.

New Hampshire

MAGGIE HASSAN (D) vs. Don Bolduc (R)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Democratic
RCP polling average: Hassan +5.8 (Last week: Hassan +6.6)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: No average
Eventual margin: Biden +7.2

The only new survey in New Hampshire this week — conducted for AARP by a bipartisan pair of major polling firms — gave Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan a 7-point lead over Republican Don Bolduc, 52 percent to 45 percent.

7.

North Carolina

Ted Budd (R) vs. Cheri Beasley (D)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican
RCP polling average: Budd +1.5 (Last week: Budd +1.5)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: Biden +1.9
Eventual margin: Trump +1.3

No new polls this week in North Carolina, which continues to loom on the periphery of the Senate battlefield.

8.

Ohio

J.D. Vance (R) vs. Tim Ryan (D)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican
RCP polling average: Vance +0.7 (Last week: Vance +1.2)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: Biden +0.6
Eventual margin: Trump +8

Republican J.D. Vance continues to post slight leads in Ohio polls, including three new surveys this week, each showing Vance ahead of Democrat Tim Ryan by 1-to-3 points.

Two of the polls were from Republican firms: Trafalgar Group and Cygnal, which conducts surveys for GOP candidates and outside groups.

9.

Pennsylvania

Mehmet Oz (R) vs. John Fetterman (D)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Toss Up
RCP polling average: Fetterman +3.4 (Last week: Fetterman +4.3)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: Biden +7.1
Eventual margin: Biden +1.2

Republican Mehmet Oz still hasn't caught Democrat John Fetterman, though the only new poll this week, from Trafalgar Group for the right-wing website Daily Wire, showed Fetterman with just a 2-point lead, 47 percent to 45 percent.

10.

Wisconsin

RON JOHNSON (R) vs. Mandela Barnes (D)
POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Toss Up
RCP polling average: Johnson +2.8 (Last week: Johnson +3)
2020 RCP polling average 24 days before the election: Biden +5.5
Eventual margin: Biden +0.7

The Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday showing GOP Sen. Ron Johnson opening a 6-point lead over Democrat Mandela Barnes rocked the toss-up race: It was Johnson's biggest lead in any poll this year.

There was one poll with more positive signs for Barnes: a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted mostly over the same time frame showed Johnson only ahead by 1 point. But even that is a sign of how the race has changed since the early days after the primary, when Barnes was ahead in survey after survey.