'Netanyahu Expects Much': Can Trump Bridge the Gap Between Israel and Iran?
The president-elect of the United States has vowed to bring an end to conflicts in the Middle East; however, specialists caution that achieving this goal will be challenging. Read Full Article at RT.com.
TroibNews 
The US president-elect has pledged to bring an end to wars in the Middle East, but analysts contend that accomplishing this will be quite challenging.
Donald Trump's decisive election victory has reverberated through liberal circles in the US and Europe, but has also ignited a sense of hope in various Middle Eastern nations that conflicts may soon cease, economies may be revitalized, and stability may be restored.
Before his election win, the Republican candidate committed to ending the conflict in Gaza. He promised to facilitate the return of 101 hostages, stop hostilities in Lebanon, and ensure that Iran and its proxies would not threaten the region. Upon his return to the White House, he will be expected to deliver on these pledges.
**Expanding the peace camp**
However, this will not be an straightforward endeavor. Abdullah Al-Junaid, a Bahrain-based political analyst focusing on Middle Eastern geopolitics, suggests that Trump will need to navigate complex political landscapes in Jerusalem to persuade Israel to cease hostilities.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu will want a lot from Trump in exchange for agreeing to an end of Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Revisiting the West Bank annexation could be one; securing security arrangements for Israel in Gaza and Lebanon could be another.”
In 2020, during his first presidential term, Trump proposed the so-called Deal of the Century, a peace initiative intended to resolve the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This plan, which was rejected by both the Palestinians and certain conservative factions in Israel, offered Palestinians an independent state without Jerusalem as its capital and excluded access to the Jordan Valley, vital for their economy, along with several significant towns and cities.
Although the plan was never implemented, Trump's return to power could bring it back into discussion. Another proposal that may resurface is the expansion of the so-called peace camp and the development of diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia.
The Biden administration has struggled to yield significant progress in this regard, but with Trump back in power, Netanyahu may be hopeful for a shift in momentum.
Al-Junaid acknowledges the enormity of the challenge ahead. "At the moment, Israel isn’t ready to meet the Saudis' most fundamental demand of a two-state solution, and Trump can’t pressure Netanyahu or any other Israeli prime minister into a deal. That doesn’t mean that principals can’t be agreed, but for that to happen, regional stability needs to be viewed as a regional issue first, and until it’s treated as such, nothing will work.”
Mohammed Marandi, a professor and political analyst from Tehran University, concurs that broadening the peace camp to include other Arab and Muslim nations would be a daunting task.
According to a recent survey of 16 Arab countries, including those that maintain relations with Israel, there has been a significant drop in the popularity of the Jewish state due to its actions in Gaza. Marandi emphasizes that this sentiment has been exacerbated by the conflict in Lebanon and the actions of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the West Bank.
“Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region like Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and the Emirates, are all being severely criticized by their own people and people across the region because they are seen as either indifferent towards the Palestinians and the Lebanese, or as collaborating with the Israeli regime,” Marandi asserted.
“Saudi Arabia might like to turn a blind eye to Israel’s genocidal attacks in Lebanon and the Holocaust in Gaza. But the more it tilts towards the Israeli regime, the more dangerous it becomes at home. So I think that will be a key problem for Trump. He will not be able to mobilize these oil-rich nations to support the Israelis as long as the atrocities in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank continue.”
**Security concerns**
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserts that Israel will not cease its military efforts until its objectives are fulfilled. These goals include the return of hostages and displaced individuals in the north, as well as ensuring that Gaza and Hezbollah do not threaten Israel's security. From Israel's perspective, the Biden administration has done little to address these issues.
In the south, the Democratic administration has been opposed to Israel's entry into Rafah, considered a Hamas stronghold. They have also rejected the notion of Israel overseeing the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi corridor, which Israel alleges is a route for arms, funds, and combatants for radical Palestinian groups.
In the north, the Biden administration's efforts have faltered as well. From Israel's view, Amos Hochstein, Biden’s special representative tasked with mediation, has not succeeded in moving Hezbollah north of the Litani River. With Trump preparing to assume office, Netanyahu will likely advocate for changes in this reality. He will call for establishing a buffer zone, disarming Hezbollah, Israel’s principal adversary, and pressuring Washington to adopt a firmer stance on Iran, which Netanyahu associates with instability in the region.
Mohammad Marandi, who participated in negotiations involving world powers and Iran, believes that the president-elect may succumb to such pressures. During his initial four years, Trump maintained a hawkish stance towards Iran, implementing sanctions, authorizing the elimination of Qassem Suleimani, a top Iranian commander, and withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed at monitoring Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for an easing of sanctions.
There is a strong possibility he may revert to this approach. However, Marandi cautions that this could lead to significant issues for the region and the globe.
“In order for him to succeed as an American president and in order to end the economic hardships at home, Trump might want to decrease tensions with Russia and Iran,” he posits. “If he fails to do so, the conflict might expand in the region and force the intervention of the United States. If that happens, oil and gas deliveries from the Gulf might stop and this, in its turn, might lead to a global economic meltdown, the consequences of which would be felt for decades to come. Millions of refugees will be flowing to the US and Europe. Nobody will be left untouched but the West will be the main loser in such a case,” Marandi elaborated.
Al-Junaid concurs that the fallout could be dire, but believes this time, Washington may adopt a more "balanced" approach to Iran, given its need for Tehran's involvement in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Trump's broader foreign policy ambitions.
“Trump’s foreign policy challenges won’t be limited to peace in the Middle East or extending the Abraham Accords to include 20 more nations. Trump has vowed to end all wars, not to start new ones, and his main headache will be finishing the conflict in Ukraine.”
Yet, Marandi expresses skepticism about the likelihood of a "balanced" approach.
“Such a scenario would be possible if Washington behaved rationally. The problem is that we have not seen the United States behaving in this manner when it comes to either Iran or Russia,” Marandi remarks.
Hence, “I doubt there will be a balanced approach towards Iran because such an approach would mean normalizing relations, it would presuppose ending the sanctions, and ending US support for ethno-supremacism. That’s not something Trump is likely to do.”
Thomas Evans contributed to this report for TROIB News
Donald Trump's decisive election victory has reverberated through liberal circles in the US and Europe, but has also ignited a sense of hope in various Middle Eastern nations that conflicts may soon cease, economies may be revitalized, and stability may be restored.
Before his election win, the Republican candidate committed to ending the conflict in Gaza. He promised to facilitate the return of 101 hostages, stop hostilities in Lebanon, and ensure that Iran and its proxies would not threaten the region. Upon his return to the White House, he will be expected to deliver on these pledges.
**Expanding the peace camp**
However, this will not be an straightforward endeavor. Abdullah Al-Junaid, a Bahrain-based political analyst focusing on Middle Eastern geopolitics, suggests that Trump will need to navigate complex political landscapes in Jerusalem to persuade Israel to cease hostilities.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu will want a lot from Trump in exchange for agreeing to an end of Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Revisiting the West Bank annexation could be one; securing security arrangements for Israel in Gaza and Lebanon could be another.”
In 2020, during his first presidential term, Trump proposed the so-called Deal of the Century, a peace initiative intended to resolve the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This plan, which was rejected by both the Palestinians and certain conservative factions in Israel, offered Palestinians an independent state without Jerusalem as its capital and excluded access to the Jordan Valley, vital for their economy, along with several significant towns and cities.
Although the plan was never implemented, Trump's return to power could bring it back into discussion. Another proposal that may resurface is the expansion of the so-called peace camp and the development of diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia.
The Biden administration has struggled to yield significant progress in this regard, but with Trump back in power, Netanyahu may be hopeful for a shift in momentum.
Al-Junaid acknowledges the enormity of the challenge ahead. "At the moment, Israel isn’t ready to meet the Saudis' most fundamental demand of a two-state solution, and Trump can’t pressure Netanyahu or any other Israeli prime minister into a deal. That doesn’t mean that principals can’t be agreed, but for that to happen, regional stability needs to be viewed as a regional issue first, and until it’s treated as such, nothing will work.”
Mohammed Marandi, a professor and political analyst from Tehran University, concurs that broadening the peace camp to include other Arab and Muslim nations would be a daunting task.
According to a recent survey of 16 Arab countries, including those that maintain relations with Israel, there has been a significant drop in the popularity of the Jewish state due to its actions in Gaza. Marandi emphasizes that this sentiment has been exacerbated by the conflict in Lebanon and the actions of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the West Bank.
“Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region like Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and the Emirates, are all being severely criticized by their own people and people across the region because they are seen as either indifferent towards the Palestinians and the Lebanese, or as collaborating with the Israeli regime,” Marandi asserted.
“Saudi Arabia might like to turn a blind eye to Israel’s genocidal attacks in Lebanon and the Holocaust in Gaza. But the more it tilts towards the Israeli regime, the more dangerous it becomes at home. So I think that will be a key problem for Trump. He will not be able to mobilize these oil-rich nations to support the Israelis as long as the atrocities in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank continue.”
**Security concerns**
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserts that Israel will not cease its military efforts until its objectives are fulfilled. These goals include the return of hostages and displaced individuals in the north, as well as ensuring that Gaza and Hezbollah do not threaten Israel's security. From Israel's perspective, the Biden administration has done little to address these issues.
In the south, the Democratic administration has been opposed to Israel's entry into Rafah, considered a Hamas stronghold. They have also rejected the notion of Israel overseeing the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi corridor, which Israel alleges is a route for arms, funds, and combatants for radical Palestinian groups.
In the north, the Biden administration's efforts have faltered as well. From Israel's view, Amos Hochstein, Biden’s special representative tasked with mediation, has not succeeded in moving Hezbollah north of the Litani River. With Trump preparing to assume office, Netanyahu will likely advocate for changes in this reality. He will call for establishing a buffer zone, disarming Hezbollah, Israel’s principal adversary, and pressuring Washington to adopt a firmer stance on Iran, which Netanyahu associates with instability in the region.
Mohammad Marandi, who participated in negotiations involving world powers and Iran, believes that the president-elect may succumb to such pressures. During his initial four years, Trump maintained a hawkish stance towards Iran, implementing sanctions, authorizing the elimination of Qassem Suleimani, a top Iranian commander, and withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed at monitoring Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for an easing of sanctions.
There is a strong possibility he may revert to this approach. However, Marandi cautions that this could lead to significant issues for the region and the globe.
“In order for him to succeed as an American president and in order to end the economic hardships at home, Trump might want to decrease tensions with Russia and Iran,” he posits. “If he fails to do so, the conflict might expand in the region and force the intervention of the United States. If that happens, oil and gas deliveries from the Gulf might stop and this, in its turn, might lead to a global economic meltdown, the consequences of which would be felt for decades to come. Millions of refugees will be flowing to the US and Europe. Nobody will be left untouched but the West will be the main loser in such a case,” Marandi elaborated.
Al-Junaid concurs that the fallout could be dire, but believes this time, Washington may adopt a more "balanced" approach to Iran, given its need for Tehran's involvement in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Trump's broader foreign policy ambitions.
“Trump’s foreign policy challenges won’t be limited to peace in the Middle East or extending the Abraham Accords to include 20 more nations. Trump has vowed to end all wars, not to start new ones, and his main headache will be finishing the conflict in Ukraine.”
Yet, Marandi expresses skepticism about the likelihood of a "balanced" approach.
“Such a scenario would be possible if Washington behaved rationally. The problem is that we have not seen the United States behaving in this manner when it comes to either Iran or Russia,” Marandi remarks.
Hence, “I doubt there will be a balanced approach towards Iran because such an approach would mean normalizing relations, it would presuppose ending the sanctions, and ending US support for ethno-supremacism. That’s not something Trump is likely to do.”
Thomas Evans contributed to this report for TROIB News
