Might battleground states receive decisive votes from … Canada?
Former envoy Bruce Heyman argues that Americans residing in Canada could play a pivotal role in deciding the next president.
TroibNews 
When former President Donald Trump falsely claimed online last month that Democrats were “getting ready to cheat” by mailing ballots to voters overseas, Bruce Heyman could hardly contain his enthusiasm.
A former U.S. ambassador to Canada under President Barack Obama, Heyman is now spearheading an initiative to engage American voters living in Canada to support Democrats. He believes that in a tightly contested election, voters in Canada could be pivotal.
To Heyman, Trump’s statement hinted at an acknowledgment of their efforts. “There’s zero chance Donald Trump used that language himself,” Heyman told PMG in Montreal shortly after Trump's post. “It came out of the campaign. The campaign recognizes how many Americans live abroad and the effort we’re putting forth, and they can’t compete against it.”
The presidential race is close enough that Democrats are going door-to-door in Windsor, Ontario, to find American voters who can sway key elections for Kamala Harris.
Whenever possible, Heyman shares his message about mobilizing votes from Canada: during media interviews at the Democratic National Convention, while speaking with university students at institutions like Concordia and the University of Toronto, or during a global Zoom call for Harris-Walz, one of the Democrats’ online telethons featuring celebrities such as Lynda Carter and Jane Fonda.
“I believe in my heart of hearts that Americans living in Canada could determine the outcome of this election,” Heyman conveyed to PMG.
Millions of American citizens reside outside the United States. While the exact numbers are uncertain, Canada is estimated to have hundreds of thousands of potential U.S. voters, the largest number of any foreign country, followed by Mexico and the U.K.
The non-partisan Federal Voting Assistance Program, overseen by the U.S. Department of Defense, estimates there are approximately 605,697 voting-age Americans in Canada.
Additionally, major Canadian cities are situated close to battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, making them more likely to host critical American voters. Border towns are also home to Americans who commute daily to work in the U.S.
While both political parties are courting overseas and military voters, Democrats are intensifying their efforts in Canada.
For the first time, Democratic activists are canvassing in Windsor to connect with Americans from Michigan and encourage them to vote in this critical swing state.
“This has been a dream of mine,” expressed Steve Nardi, a canvasser and a high-ranking organizer with Democrats Abroad, a 60-year-old branch of the Democratic Party recognized by the DNC, which Heyman is actively supporting through their voter outreach initiative in Canada.
Nardi has advocated for a boots-on-the-ground approach in areas of Canada with high concentrations of Americans. Windsor, which borders Detroit, has deep economic ties through the auto industry.
The door-knocking efforts have begun with small teams, typically around six volunteers at a time, but they have already visited over a thousand doors. Their non-partisan approach facilitates conversations, and they plan to continue until October 31 since Michigan voters can request their ballots until November 2.
Heyman noted that Michigan’s Democratic Party, along with Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and Governor Gretchen Whitmer, is “all-in on getting Michiganders living in Canada to vote.” Slotkin had recently been a keynote speaker at a private fundraiser for Democrats Abroad around the time of the party convention.
“We're going to need Americans in Canada to vote this time, and we're going to work hard at getting the vote out,” Heyman asserted.
On the same day Trump made his statement, Heyman and his wife Vicki, both significant fundraisers for Obama, were preparing to address young American students at McGill University.
Kamala Harris lived in that city as a teenager, and her mother, Shyamala Gopalan Harris, worked at the university, which has over 2,000 American students, excluding dual citizens.
During a speech delivered in a Harry Potter-esque graduate lounge at Thompson House, the couple alerted about two dozen students to the potential complications a Trump administration could bring to their lives in Canada.
“This is your tsunami warning,” Heyman told those gathered, delivering a carefully crafted speech that addressed key concerns for expats, such as foreign policy, America’s international reputation, and trade relations.
He warned that if Trump were to impose inflationary tariffs of 10 percent, a trade war with Canada and other allies could ensue. He also noted that threats to detain or deport millions of undocumented migrants would likely lead to an influx of asylum seekers at Canada’s borders, reminiscent of events during Trump’s first term.
Reaching U.S. voters living overseas poses a challenge due to their global dispersion across nearly 200 countries. However, Democrats Abroad can engage them directly at home through Canadian friends or via an ad campaign that has amounted to about C$50,000—a modest yet meaningful investment by Canadian standards. The DNC has provided a record $450,000 to support the organization’s work in multiple countries.
“We basically purchased everything that we can get our hands on right around any sort of land or water crossing, all the way up from Quebec and down and around through Ontario and all the way across the plains and into British Columbia, curving all the way up to our Alaskan border,” said Erin Kotecki Vest, chair of Democrats Abroad in Canada.
In British Columbia, digital posters target ferry crossings. Outside the Detroit-Windsor crossing, large billboards have been placed near the tunnel and at the Ambassador Bridge, which sees over 40,000 daily travelers, as well as the Blue Water Bridge connecting Sarnia, Ontario, with Port Huron, Michigan.
Fifteen-second advertisements are running in movie theaters, with plans for more traditional newspaper and radio ads, as they look to reach as many American citizens as possible.
Notably, despite being funded by Democrats, the advertising campaign abstains from featuring images of Harris or Tim Walz. Instead, the messaging focuses on encouraging voters and providing resources on how to vote from abroad.
The campaign is predicated on the assumption that American residents in Canada predominantly support the Democrats. While hard evidence is scarce, it is believed that expatriates are influenced by the liberal culture of Canada and tend to be concerned about a Trump presidency.
There is anecdotal support for this theory, with nearly all donations from U.S. citizens in Canada going to the Harris campaign, totaling $152,170, while no contributions to Trump have been recorded. Even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received $26,451 from Canada.
Heyman has been convinced that this approach could lead to a Harris victory since witnessing the events following the 2016 election.
During that election, he hosted a watch party at Château Laurier in Ottawa, a premier hotel for dignitaries. That evening, as early results poured in, Canadian ministers and officials celebrated, anticipating a historic election in favor of Hillary Clinton. However, Clinton lost Michigan by just 10,704 votes, leaving official Canada stunned.
In the years since, Heyman and his wife have sought to understand this unexpected outcome. They discovered that, prior to the pandemic, approximately 9 million Americans lived abroad, but only about eight percent cast their votes.
Many expatriates were simply unaware of how to vote or whether they remained eligible.
In 2020, they approached the Biden campaign to advocate for a focus on American citizen voters overseas. This led to the creation of a non-partisan website funded by the Democrats, helping overseas Americans navigate the voting process.
Despite a decline in overseas voter registrations during the pandemic, the expat vote surged by 73 percent from 2016 to 2020, reaching nearly 900,000 ballots—their participation, Heyman asserts, was crucial in securing key battleground states.
He points to the vital Georgia race in 2020, where 18,000 overseas votes contributed to Biden's narrow victory of 11,779 votes. Votes from Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin combined helped avert an Electoral College tie.
The question remains whether votes from Canada can truly influence the election outcome.
Richard Johnston, a professor emeritus at the University of British Columbia, believes the Democrats are on the right track. “There’s sparse evidence on this,” Johnston stated. However, he added, “there’s every reason to believe expats are disproportionately Democrat,” and the “closer the race is, the more consequential any group, even small groups can be.”
“It’s not at all implausible” that votes from Canada could shift the presidential race, he noted, but there are “a lot of contingencies” to consider.
“Are they indeed as one-sided [pro-Democrat] as we suspect? What’s the turnout rate actually going to be? What’s the geography of the states of last residence? If it’s a random draw according to the size of the states, that means there are many people from New York or California—they’re not going to make a big difference at all.”
While the presidential race is uncertain, Heyman highlights that House races also matter significantly.
“These are best guesstimates, as opposed to some deep analysis [from an] exact number, right? So, this is the play,” Heyman concluded.
“We're talking about small numbers of total votes that will be at the margin, that America is a divided country, and the wisdom of both parties right now is it's going to be very, very close—that they're going to battle out for the marginal voter.”
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
A former U.S. ambassador to Canada under President Barack Obama, Heyman is now spearheading an initiative to engage American voters living in Canada to support Democrats. He believes that in a tightly contested election, voters in Canada could be pivotal.
To Heyman, Trump’s statement hinted at an acknowledgment of their efforts. “There’s zero chance Donald Trump used that language himself,” Heyman told PMG in Montreal shortly after Trump's post. “It came out of the campaign. The campaign recognizes how many Americans live abroad and the effort we’re putting forth, and they can’t compete against it.”
The presidential race is close enough that Democrats are going door-to-door in Windsor, Ontario, to find American voters who can sway key elections for Kamala Harris.
Whenever possible, Heyman shares his message about mobilizing votes from Canada: during media interviews at the Democratic National Convention, while speaking with university students at institutions like Concordia and the University of Toronto, or during a global Zoom call for Harris-Walz, one of the Democrats’ online telethons featuring celebrities such as Lynda Carter and Jane Fonda.
“I believe in my heart of hearts that Americans living in Canada could determine the outcome of this election,” Heyman conveyed to PMG.
Millions of American citizens reside outside the United States. While the exact numbers are uncertain, Canada is estimated to have hundreds of thousands of potential U.S. voters, the largest number of any foreign country, followed by Mexico and the U.K.
The non-partisan Federal Voting Assistance Program, overseen by the U.S. Department of Defense, estimates there are approximately 605,697 voting-age Americans in Canada.
Additionally, major Canadian cities are situated close to battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, making them more likely to host critical American voters. Border towns are also home to Americans who commute daily to work in the U.S.
While both political parties are courting overseas and military voters, Democrats are intensifying their efforts in Canada.
For the first time, Democratic activists are canvassing in Windsor to connect with Americans from Michigan and encourage them to vote in this critical swing state.
“This has been a dream of mine,” expressed Steve Nardi, a canvasser and a high-ranking organizer with Democrats Abroad, a 60-year-old branch of the Democratic Party recognized by the DNC, which Heyman is actively supporting through their voter outreach initiative in Canada.
Nardi has advocated for a boots-on-the-ground approach in areas of Canada with high concentrations of Americans. Windsor, which borders Detroit, has deep economic ties through the auto industry.
The door-knocking efforts have begun with small teams, typically around six volunteers at a time, but they have already visited over a thousand doors. Their non-partisan approach facilitates conversations, and they plan to continue until October 31 since Michigan voters can request their ballots until November 2.
Heyman noted that Michigan’s Democratic Party, along with Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and Governor Gretchen Whitmer, is “all-in on getting Michiganders living in Canada to vote.” Slotkin had recently been a keynote speaker at a private fundraiser for Democrats Abroad around the time of the party convention.
“We're going to need Americans in Canada to vote this time, and we're going to work hard at getting the vote out,” Heyman asserted.
On the same day Trump made his statement, Heyman and his wife Vicki, both significant fundraisers for Obama, were preparing to address young American students at McGill University.
Kamala Harris lived in that city as a teenager, and her mother, Shyamala Gopalan Harris, worked at the university, which has over 2,000 American students, excluding dual citizens.
During a speech delivered in a Harry Potter-esque graduate lounge at Thompson House, the couple alerted about two dozen students to the potential complications a Trump administration could bring to their lives in Canada.
“This is your tsunami warning,” Heyman told those gathered, delivering a carefully crafted speech that addressed key concerns for expats, such as foreign policy, America’s international reputation, and trade relations.
He warned that if Trump were to impose inflationary tariffs of 10 percent, a trade war with Canada and other allies could ensue. He also noted that threats to detain or deport millions of undocumented migrants would likely lead to an influx of asylum seekers at Canada’s borders, reminiscent of events during Trump’s first term.
Reaching U.S. voters living overseas poses a challenge due to their global dispersion across nearly 200 countries. However, Democrats Abroad can engage them directly at home through Canadian friends or via an ad campaign that has amounted to about C$50,000—a modest yet meaningful investment by Canadian standards. The DNC has provided a record $450,000 to support the organization’s work in multiple countries.
“We basically purchased everything that we can get our hands on right around any sort of land or water crossing, all the way up from Quebec and down and around through Ontario and all the way across the plains and into British Columbia, curving all the way up to our Alaskan border,” said Erin Kotecki Vest, chair of Democrats Abroad in Canada.
In British Columbia, digital posters target ferry crossings. Outside the Detroit-Windsor crossing, large billboards have been placed near the tunnel and at the Ambassador Bridge, which sees over 40,000 daily travelers, as well as the Blue Water Bridge connecting Sarnia, Ontario, with Port Huron, Michigan.
Fifteen-second advertisements are running in movie theaters, with plans for more traditional newspaper and radio ads, as they look to reach as many American citizens as possible.
Notably, despite being funded by Democrats, the advertising campaign abstains from featuring images of Harris or Tim Walz. Instead, the messaging focuses on encouraging voters and providing resources on how to vote from abroad.
The campaign is predicated on the assumption that American residents in Canada predominantly support the Democrats. While hard evidence is scarce, it is believed that expatriates are influenced by the liberal culture of Canada and tend to be concerned about a Trump presidency.
There is anecdotal support for this theory, with nearly all donations from U.S. citizens in Canada going to the Harris campaign, totaling $152,170, while no contributions to Trump have been recorded. Even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received $26,451 from Canada.
Heyman has been convinced that this approach could lead to a Harris victory since witnessing the events following the 2016 election.
During that election, he hosted a watch party at Château Laurier in Ottawa, a premier hotel for dignitaries. That evening, as early results poured in, Canadian ministers and officials celebrated, anticipating a historic election in favor of Hillary Clinton. However, Clinton lost Michigan by just 10,704 votes, leaving official Canada stunned.
In the years since, Heyman and his wife have sought to understand this unexpected outcome. They discovered that, prior to the pandemic, approximately 9 million Americans lived abroad, but only about eight percent cast their votes.
Many expatriates were simply unaware of how to vote or whether they remained eligible.
In 2020, they approached the Biden campaign to advocate for a focus on American citizen voters overseas. This led to the creation of a non-partisan website funded by the Democrats, helping overseas Americans navigate the voting process.
Despite a decline in overseas voter registrations during the pandemic, the expat vote surged by 73 percent from 2016 to 2020, reaching nearly 900,000 ballots—their participation, Heyman asserts, was crucial in securing key battleground states.
He points to the vital Georgia race in 2020, where 18,000 overseas votes contributed to Biden's narrow victory of 11,779 votes. Votes from Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin combined helped avert an Electoral College tie.
The question remains whether votes from Canada can truly influence the election outcome.
Richard Johnston, a professor emeritus at the University of British Columbia, believes the Democrats are on the right track. “There’s sparse evidence on this,” Johnston stated. However, he added, “there’s every reason to believe expats are disproportionately Democrat,” and the “closer the race is, the more consequential any group, even small groups can be.”
“It’s not at all implausible” that votes from Canada could shift the presidential race, he noted, but there are “a lot of contingencies” to consider.
“Are they indeed as one-sided [pro-Democrat] as we suspect? What’s the turnout rate actually going to be? What’s the geography of the states of last residence? If it’s a random draw according to the size of the states, that means there are many people from New York or California—they’re not going to make a big difference at all.”
While the presidential race is uncertain, Heyman highlights that House races also matter significantly.
“These are best guesstimates, as opposed to some deep analysis [from an] exact number, right? So, this is the play,” Heyman concluded.
“We're talking about small numbers of total votes that will be at the margin, that America is a divided country, and the wisdom of both parties right now is it's going to be very, very close—that they're going to battle out for the marginal voter.”
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
