Long Island has swung toward Trump. Will voters there respond to anti-MAGA messaging?

NEW YORK — Two Democrats vying for a chance to challenge Long Island Rep. Nick LaLota share at least one priority: defending democracy from Donald Trump’s attempts to undermine trust in elections and the justice system.

The strategy mirrors one being put to the test nationally by Joe Biden’s campaign, which has shifted to a more forceful tone focusing on not only Trump’s hush money conviction but his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and erode faith in longstanding institutions. But it could be a risky one, some Democrats fear — especially in the stretch of suburbs east of New York City that has grown redder over the years and was the rare source of trouble for the party in an otherwise strong 2022.

“Ultimately, to worry about democracy, you have to believe that democracy is working for you,” said Zak Malamed, a Long Island-based strategist and former Democratic House candidate who co-founded a PAC to combat extremism.

John Avlon and Nancy Goroff’s focus on combating "MAGA extremists" stands in contrast to the approaches of other Long Island Democrats. Rep. Tom Suozzi during his February special election resisted talking about either Trump or Biden. Laura Gillen, the Democrat challenging GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, notably chose not to release a statement on the guilty verdict against Trump and references the former president only when connecting him to her rival.

The concern for Democrats is that swing-district voters, especially in working- and middle-class parts of Long Island, may see cost of living and public safety as more immediate, tangible challenges and tune out the eventual nominee’s messaging.

Avlon, a former CNN analyst, and Goroff, a chemist who was the 2020 Democratic nominee for the seat, are locked in a contentious fight in easternmost Long Island that will be decided on Tuesday. Each argues they’re better equipped to take on LaLota, who was one of the first battleground Republicans nationwide to endorse Trump. (The GOP freshman earned the former president’s support in turn.) And both Democratic candidates cite a history of standing up to Republican erosion of freedoms — Avlon in news media and Goroff as a community advocate.

The path to the speaker’s gavel may run straight through New York in November, when roughly a half dozen congressional districts are in play. LaLota isn’t as vulnerable as other Empire State Republicans, including Reps. Brandon Williams and Mike Lawler, and his seat post-redistricting is slightly redder than what he was first elected to in the midterms. But he remains a key Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee target.

It isn’t unusual for candidates — even in battleground districts — to try to tailor their message to plugged-in base voters before shifting toward November. But while campaigning against Trump as a threat to democracy may galvanize Democratic voters in a primary, it’s a riskier approach in a general election.

And Avlon and Goroff, to different degrees, are trying it out in the bedroom community outside of the city. Long Island saw two House seats flip to Republicans during their 2022 wave of victories, leading all four congressional districts to be GOP-led until Rep. George Santos was ousted last December and Suozzi — a centrist Democrat — ushered in via a special election two months later.

Republicans also enjoyed a wave of local and state victories in recent years and former Rep. Lee Zeldin, LaLota’s predecessor, nearly defeated Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in the 2022 gubernatorial race after making dramatic gains on Long Island.

Long Island Republicans have more openly embraced Trump than some of their colleagues in other suburban battlegrounds, both north of New York City and nationally. D’Esposito of Nassau County endorsed Trump not long after LaLota of Suffolk County did. By contrast, Rep. Marc Molinaro, whose district includes upper Hudson Valley, endorsed Trump quietly in March, declining to post the news on social media, and Lawler — who represents a district just north of the city — has yet to officially endorse the former president, even if he was a 2016 Trump delegate and acknowledged voting for him.

“I’ve been taking the fight hard to the far-right for a long time,” Avlon said in an interview with POLITICO, pointing to his fact-checking segments on CNN, stint at the helm of The Daily Beast and a book he authored titled “Wingnuts.”

“It’s all about winning,” Avlon said of Democrats retaking the House majority. “And the math of a swing district means we need to fire up the base and win over independents — and even possibly a sliver of Republicans — who realize that Donald Trump is a threat to the republic and their values.”

Avlon has cleaned up on primary endorsements, including from Reps. Suozzi, Greg Meeks and Dan Goldman, local Democratic committees, labor unions and former contenders for the House seat. Avlon, a first-time candidate, had announced his bid in February, jolting a race where Goroff was seen as the Democratic heir apparent. Goroff is self-financing mightily against him, going negative in her approach.

Goroff, who is endorsed by EMILYs List, which backs Democratic women who are supportive of abortion rights, and J Street, a progressive pro-Israel group, countered that she has deeper community ties than Avlon, including through the Long Island Strong Schools Alliance. She portrays her opponent as parachuting into the Hamptons to run for Congress and said she sees voter enthusiasm on the ground for her bid.

“It speaks to people’s concerns about attacks on democracy and attacks on our kids, and knowing that we have been able to beat the MAGA Moms for Liberty extremists here locally in Suffolk County,” Goroff told POLITICO.

Running on a warning that democracy is at stake worked for Eugene Vindman, who was tied to Trump's first impeachment for his attempts to coerce Ukraine, in his Virginia primary, but not for former Capitol officer Harry Dunn, who responded to the Jan. 6 attacks, in his Maryland primary.

Avlon and Goroff say that while democracy is at the top, it is far from the sole issue they are running on. Avlon has highlighted protecting abortion access and affordability, while Goroff often talks about the climate crisis.

“Different issues will have different impacts on different constituencies in different districts,” said Jay Jacobs, who chairs the New York State and Nassau County Democratic parties and has endorsed Avlon. “But certainly the message about democracy that’s been articulated by both candidates in the Democratic primary is not necessarily going to be the singular, largest message championed in the general election by whomever wins.”

Republicans are dismissive of both Goroff and Avlon’s approach.

“Perhaps instead of hyperbolic attacks, they should focus on what actually matters to voters like securing our border and making life more affordable,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Savannah Viar said in a statement.

Some Democrats argue that candidates could alienate voters who may be sympathetic to Trump but still Biden-curious or open to splitting their ballot by focusing on anti-MAGA messaging. Suozzi, as an example, won his Nassau County and Queens special election over Republican-backed Mazi Pilip, by winning over some people who voted Republican in the midterms.

Malamed, who dropped out of his House race and supported Suozzi, said of Democrats, that “the more we describe MAGA as a people, the more we demean those people and those voters who have a variety of reasons to believe what they believe.”