JPMorgan Raises Alarm on Global Recession
According to JPMorgan, President Trump’s tariffs on the majority of US trading partners may lead the global economy toward a recession.
TroibNews 
According to an investment bank, sweeping tariffs on most U.S. trading partners are expected to "likely push" the global economy into recession.
JPMorgan has raised its estimate for a global recession to 60% following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of extensive new tariffs, which have caused turmoil in financial markets and raised fears of a global trade war.
“The risk of recession in the global economy this year is raised to 60%, up from 40%,” stated JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman in a note to clients entitled “There will be blood,” as reported by Bloomberg.
Kasman referred to the tariffs as the largest tax increase on U.S. households and businesses since 1968 and cautioned that the implications could be far-reaching. He remarked, “The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified – through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions.”
In related news, the U.S. dollar index saw a drop of 2.16% in premarket trading on Thursday, reaching its lowest point since October. This decline followed Trump's decision to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on a wide variety of imports from numerous countries, raising concerns about a potential global trade war that has reportedly driven investors towards safe-haven assets.
Kasman noted that while “we are not making immediate changes to our forecasts,” the full implementation of the announced policies could be viewed as “a substantial macroeconomic shock.” He emphasized, “We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and possibly global economy into recession this year.”
Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its projections, raising the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 20% to 35% as a result of the new U.S. policies.
Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank issued a warning about a potential dollar crisis stemming from the impending tariffs.
Sophie Wagner for TROIB News
JPMorgan has raised its estimate for a global recession to 60% following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of extensive new tariffs, which have caused turmoil in financial markets and raised fears of a global trade war.
“The risk of recession in the global economy this year is raised to 60%, up from 40%,” stated JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman in a note to clients entitled “There will be blood,” as reported by Bloomberg.
Kasman referred to the tariffs as the largest tax increase on U.S. households and businesses since 1968 and cautioned that the implications could be far-reaching. He remarked, “The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified – through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions.”
In related news, the U.S. dollar index saw a drop of 2.16% in premarket trading on Thursday, reaching its lowest point since October. This decline followed Trump's decision to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on a wide variety of imports from numerous countries, raising concerns about a potential global trade war that has reportedly driven investors towards safe-haven assets.
Kasman noted that while “we are not making immediate changes to our forecasts,” the full implementation of the announced policies could be viewed as “a substantial macroeconomic shock.” He emphasized, “We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and possibly global economy into recession this year.”
Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its projections, raising the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 20% to 35% as a result of the new U.S. policies.
Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank issued a warning about a potential dollar crisis stemming from the impending tariffs.
Sophie Wagner for TROIB News
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