How Trump’s Trade War Might Place John Thune in a Challenging Position
Proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico have the potential to severely impact the economy of the Senate majority leader's home state.
TroibNews 
No congressional leader faces greater risk of getting caught in the crossfire of Donald Trump’s impending trade wars than Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
On Thursday, Trump announced his readiness to impose sweeping 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday. This decision will compel the South Dakota Republican to determine whether he will leverage his leadership position to counter a tactic that has caused significant anxiety among him and other agriculture-state GOP lawmakers, or align himself with a growing contingent of MAGA-tinged protectionists in Congress.
Thune is acutely aware of the consequences: Retaliatory tariffs during Trump’s 2018 trade war with China severely harmed South Dakota’s agriculture-dependent economy, which depends on billions of dollars worth of soybeans, corn, beef, and other agricultural products exported annually, in addition to manufactured goods.
Farmers are still recovering from those losses, and a confrontation with Mexico and Canada—now the two largest export markets for American farmers—would be catastrophic. According to the Agriculture Department, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico are projected to reach $29.9 billion this fiscal year and a record-high $29.2 billion to Canada, with China lagging behind.
Other lawmakers from farming states and the agriculture industry are quietly relying on Thune to stand against Trump as he heads into another round of detrimental trade wars. However, this is a daunting challenge.
Thune, known for his typically composed approach to conflict, remarked in a brief interview that tariffs could be an “effective tool” when implemented in a “targeted and selective way.” He acknowledged the ongoing debate within his party regarding the broad levies Trump has proposed.
“Obviously the president is somebody who sees great value in the use of tariffs as a tool and we’ll have, I’m sure, lots of conversations,” he stated. “People up here have different views about how and when to use them but I see value when they are used in a targeted way.”
The president's latest trade threats present a significant test for Thune during his initial weeks as the top GOP leader. The relationship between the two has notably improved over the past year, with Trump both publicly and privately praising Thune—a stark contrast to the final days of 2020 when Trump pronounced Thune’s “political career over.”
However, Trump is also pressuring Thune to expedite the confirmation of Cabinet nominees, potentially using recess appointments, and has undercut Thune’s intentions to segment the GOP’s comprehensive tax, border, and energy package by supporting Speaker Mike Johnson’s strategy for “one big, beautiful bill”—while still leaving open the option for two.
Other GOP senators observe that Thune seems to be cooperating with the White House thus far and has not delineated a broader internal strategy on tariffs that might suggest a confrontational stance against Trump’s wide-ranging levies. He has also been cautious not to publicly establish any hard lines, even as he navigates the situation behind the scenes.
This strategy appears to be a component of a broader careful approach Thune has adopted on various issues: avoiding public criticisms of the president that might antagonize him or overpromising what can be achieved in the Senate. Instead, he prefers to communicate quietly and openly with the administration about what he and his fellow Republicans can realistically support.
Last weekend, after Trump issued a threat of significant tariffs against Colombia over blocked deportation flights, a coalition of congressional Republicans rushed to back the president.
Sen. Bernie Moreno and three other GOP lawmakers worked quickly to draft legislation reinforcing Trump's position. "Colombia and all nations should be on notice," Johnson stated in an X post.
However, Thune refrained from making a public statement until a reporter inquired about the situation a day later.
Trump is keen to threaten economic action as he seeks concessions from Canada and Mexico, citing issues like drug trafficking and trade deficits in his Thursday comments. Even the prospect of new tariffs could harm American farmers, a reality well understood by agriculture-state lawmakers.
“Most of us aren’t, just as a matter of personality, tariff guys,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, indicating that he did not foresee Congress obstructing Trump.
“We have seen how successful he’s been with using them as a negotiating tool,” he noted, adding that Trump “wants to invoke the tariffs at least for a little while. He’s not in an incremental mood right now.”
Historically, business-friendly Republicans on Capitol Hill have been hesitant to leverage tariffs in non-trade disputes with foreign nations. Nevertheless, members of Thune’s leadership team—such as Sens. John Barrasso and Shelley Moore Capito—have endorsed Trump’s tariff threat against Colombia regarding illegal immigration.
“I think the president has a strategy, and it's working,” Capito remarked concerning the Colombia situation.
However, for Thune and other Republicans from agriculture states, targeting Canada and Mexico is a far more sensitive issue. Even Johnson, while asserting that there would be “no daylight” between Congress and Trump regarding his tariff threats over immigration, anticipated that Trump would avoid imposing tariffs on "whole countries or whole industries."
Thune has recently indicated his own discomfort, telling reporters in the Capitol that he is “not a big fan of, you know, across-the-board, universal, uniform tariffs, because in some cases, you know, the impact it has on the ag economy, which is critical to our state.”
Thune's remarks echo those he made in a PMG interview last year, where he stated that he had “pushed back” against broad tariffs proposed during Trump’s first term and asserted that if future tariffs were “a sort of uniform, across-the-board, just tariffs on everything—then yeah, we’re going to have some serious conversations about that.”
Yet some congressional Republicans admit there is little they can do to impede Trump, given the extensive executive authority over global trade. They argue that it falls upon the negotiating countries, not Congress, to reach a resolution.
Several GOP lawmakers are even privately working on legislation to assist Trump in formally imposing levies against Canada and Mexico, which could increase pressure on Thune—even if these efforts are mainly intended as MAGA-aligned messaging tactics.
Meanwhile, farm-state Republicans have been discreetly preparing for weeks for Trump to follow through on his trade threats against Canada and Mexico in the near future—and possibly to make additional threats.
“This is just the beginning,” one Hill Republican cautioned.
Mathilde Moreau contributed to this report for TROIB News
On Thursday, Trump announced his readiness to impose sweeping 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday. This decision will compel the South Dakota Republican to determine whether he will leverage his leadership position to counter a tactic that has caused significant anxiety among him and other agriculture-state GOP lawmakers, or align himself with a growing contingent of MAGA-tinged protectionists in Congress.
Thune is acutely aware of the consequences: Retaliatory tariffs during Trump’s 2018 trade war with China severely harmed South Dakota’s agriculture-dependent economy, which depends on billions of dollars worth of soybeans, corn, beef, and other agricultural products exported annually, in addition to manufactured goods.
Farmers are still recovering from those losses, and a confrontation with Mexico and Canada—now the two largest export markets for American farmers—would be catastrophic. According to the Agriculture Department, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico are projected to reach $29.9 billion this fiscal year and a record-high $29.2 billion to Canada, with China lagging behind.
Other lawmakers from farming states and the agriculture industry are quietly relying on Thune to stand against Trump as he heads into another round of detrimental trade wars. However, this is a daunting challenge.
Thune, known for his typically composed approach to conflict, remarked in a brief interview that tariffs could be an “effective tool” when implemented in a “targeted and selective way.” He acknowledged the ongoing debate within his party regarding the broad levies Trump has proposed.
“Obviously the president is somebody who sees great value in the use of tariffs as a tool and we’ll have, I’m sure, lots of conversations,” he stated. “People up here have different views about how and when to use them but I see value when they are used in a targeted way.”
The president's latest trade threats present a significant test for Thune during his initial weeks as the top GOP leader. The relationship between the two has notably improved over the past year, with Trump both publicly and privately praising Thune—a stark contrast to the final days of 2020 when Trump pronounced Thune’s “political career over.”
However, Trump is also pressuring Thune to expedite the confirmation of Cabinet nominees, potentially using recess appointments, and has undercut Thune’s intentions to segment the GOP’s comprehensive tax, border, and energy package by supporting Speaker Mike Johnson’s strategy for “one big, beautiful bill”—while still leaving open the option for two.
Other GOP senators observe that Thune seems to be cooperating with the White House thus far and has not delineated a broader internal strategy on tariffs that might suggest a confrontational stance against Trump’s wide-ranging levies. He has also been cautious not to publicly establish any hard lines, even as he navigates the situation behind the scenes.
This strategy appears to be a component of a broader careful approach Thune has adopted on various issues: avoiding public criticisms of the president that might antagonize him or overpromising what can be achieved in the Senate. Instead, he prefers to communicate quietly and openly with the administration about what he and his fellow Republicans can realistically support.
Last weekend, after Trump issued a threat of significant tariffs against Colombia over blocked deportation flights, a coalition of congressional Republicans rushed to back the president.
Sen. Bernie Moreno and three other GOP lawmakers worked quickly to draft legislation reinforcing Trump's position. "Colombia and all nations should be on notice," Johnson stated in an X post.
However, Thune refrained from making a public statement until a reporter inquired about the situation a day later.
Trump is keen to threaten economic action as he seeks concessions from Canada and Mexico, citing issues like drug trafficking and trade deficits in his Thursday comments. Even the prospect of new tariffs could harm American farmers, a reality well understood by agriculture-state lawmakers.
“Most of us aren’t, just as a matter of personality, tariff guys,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, indicating that he did not foresee Congress obstructing Trump.
“We have seen how successful he’s been with using them as a negotiating tool,” he noted, adding that Trump “wants to invoke the tariffs at least for a little while. He’s not in an incremental mood right now.”
Historically, business-friendly Republicans on Capitol Hill have been hesitant to leverage tariffs in non-trade disputes with foreign nations. Nevertheless, members of Thune’s leadership team—such as Sens. John Barrasso and Shelley Moore Capito—have endorsed Trump’s tariff threat against Colombia regarding illegal immigration.
“I think the president has a strategy, and it's working,” Capito remarked concerning the Colombia situation.
However, for Thune and other Republicans from agriculture states, targeting Canada and Mexico is a far more sensitive issue. Even Johnson, while asserting that there would be “no daylight” between Congress and Trump regarding his tariff threats over immigration, anticipated that Trump would avoid imposing tariffs on "whole countries or whole industries."
Thune has recently indicated his own discomfort, telling reporters in the Capitol that he is “not a big fan of, you know, across-the-board, universal, uniform tariffs, because in some cases, you know, the impact it has on the ag economy, which is critical to our state.”
Thune's remarks echo those he made in a PMG interview last year, where he stated that he had “pushed back” against broad tariffs proposed during Trump’s first term and asserted that if future tariffs were “a sort of uniform, across-the-board, just tariffs on everything—then yeah, we’re going to have some serious conversations about that.”
Yet some congressional Republicans admit there is little they can do to impede Trump, given the extensive executive authority over global trade. They argue that it falls upon the negotiating countries, not Congress, to reach a resolution.
Several GOP lawmakers are even privately working on legislation to assist Trump in formally imposing levies against Canada and Mexico, which could increase pressure on Thune—even if these efforts are mainly intended as MAGA-aligned messaging tactics.
Meanwhile, farm-state Republicans have been discreetly preparing for weeks for Trump to follow through on his trade threats against Canada and Mexico in the near future—and possibly to make additional threats.
“This is just the beginning,” one Hill Republican cautioned.
Mathilde Moreau contributed to this report for TROIB News
