How Trump Might Influence New Jersey’s GOP Gubernatorial Primary
His successes in the blue state might elevate his status to that of a kingmaker.
TroibNews 
Shortly before his May rally at the Jersey Shore, Donald Trump phoned a local talk radio station to speak with conservative host Bill Spadea. He was quick to comment on state politics.
“I think he made some pretty big mistakes. You know who I’m talking about,” Trump stated, referring to Jack Ciattarelli, a Republican who narrowly lost to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021. “This guy never came to ask for my support. And you know what? When MAGA sees that, they don’t like it and they didn’t vote for him.”
The notion that a Republican candidate in New Jersey, a predominantly Democratic state, would pursue Trump’s endorsement during a general election seemed politically ill-advised at the time. However, after Trump came within six points of defeating Kamala Harris in New Jersey this month, the dynamics for the GOP have shifted dramatically.
Now, with Ciattarelli entering the gubernatorial race once again and Spadea emerging as his principal opponent, both are vying for Trump’s support ahead of the June primary. They will be competing against a pro-MAGA former state senator and an anti-Trump moderate state senator in what is expected to be a chaotic primary, particularly following the collapse of the state's "county line" balloting system, which previously favored candidates endorsed by local party leaders.
Political analysts in New Jersey indicate that support from establishment Republicans will be significant in the race, even in the absence of the county line. Trump’s influence within the GOP means he could be a pivotal figure in the primary process, where appearing as a genuine Trump supporter will be critical.
“They believe Donald Trump is one of the only politicians they can trust to represent their interests,” said Matt Rooney, who runs a popular conservative blog focused on New Jersey politics. “So if you’re working against the one person they trust, necessarily that’s going to make them suspicious of a candidate.”
Support for Trump has already emerged as a key theme in the primary battle.
The Spadea campaign recently unveiled an advertisement featuring past comments from Ciattarelli, pointing out his criticisms of Trump during the 2016 election. The ad utilized artificial intelligence to recreate Ciattarelli’s voice in former statements. Despite the potential legal issues surrounding Trump’s criminal conviction, Ciattarelli is advocating for the renewal of liquor licenses at Trump’s New Jersey golf courses. Meanwhile, former state Sen. Ed Durr, who gained attention for defeating the state Senate president in 2021, posted on X that he is “more MAGA now than ever.”
New Jersey and Virginia will be the only states conducting gubernatorial elections next year, making both critical indicators of the national political mood at the beginning of a new presidential term. Generally, New Jersey voters have shown a greater willingness to elect a Republican governor than a Republican for state-level federal offices. However, Democrats enjoy a registration advantage of 900,000 voters and stronger support from public sector unions, which means successful GOP candidates often moderate their views to attract a broader base of voters.
In past elections, New Jersey Republicans have shunned Trump's endorsements. During the 2024 GOP primary for U.S. Senate, the candidate backed by Trump lost to a Republican supported by the state's party establishment. At the time, the county line ballot design was still in effect in most counties. A new ballot design is being considered for the 2025 primary, and state lawmakers are currently evaluating its format.
Trump's endorsement, already highly coveted in other Republican primary battles nationwide, could prove critical for the governor's race. Spadea, who has Trump's 2020 campaign manager Bill Stepien as a consultant, seems well-positioned to secure it. Spadea, who hosts the drive-time show on New Jersey's largest radio station, has frequently used his platform to champion Trump and spread misinformation about the 2020 election results. When Trump called in to Spadea’s show, he remarked that the host “had my back from the beginning.”
Despite this, Ciattarelli’s camp also has connections to Trump. A pro-Ciattarelli super PAC, “Kitchen Table Conservatives”—led by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway and Katie Miller, who served as Vice President Mike Pence’s press secretary—has been scrutinizing Spadea’s radio show for anti-Trump comments. Ciattarelli himself attended a “Stop the Steal” rally after Trump’s election loss, although he claimed he was unaware of the event’s purpose.
Spadea has not consistently expressed unwavering loyalty to Trump. In 2021, he suggested that Trump should not run for president again and proposed “new blood,” referring to figures like Governors Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem. In a 2022 social media post, Spadea stated that Trump’s “time has passed” and that it was necessary to “move on.”
“Trump wasn’t aware of how Spadea attacked him so much. There’s these videos where he called him a failure, said it was time to move on, time to get somebody else to run. Those are things Trump does not like,” said a Republican supporting Ciattarelli, who spoke anonymously about sensitive matters.
Republicans backing Ciattarelli plan to highlight these comments to Trump while making the case that Ciattarelli, unlike Spadea, stands a better chance of winning the general election.
“There’s a massive file of really foolish and silly things that Spadea has said,” the Republican remarked. “They’re toxic in a general election. Some could say Trump has said some of those things too, but he’s not Trump.”
The Spadea team provided a statement from Ocean County GOP Chair George Gilmore—who was pardoned by Trump after being convicted of tax-related charges and has advised a PAC led by Spadea—attacking Ciattarelli for his previous criticisms of Trump. When Trump initially campaigned in 2016, Ciattarelli labeled him a “charlatan” and suggested he drop out of the election.
“While Jack has been trashing Trump, Bill Spadea has consistently supported President Trump from the beginning,” Gilmore stated. “Like Trump, Bill is an outsider who says what’s on his mind — and that scares the crap out of scripted, career politicians like Jack Ciattarelli.”
In a counter, Ciattarelli’s campaign sent a statement from Cape May County GOP Chair Michael J. Donohue—a Ciattarelli ally—claiming Spadea “abandoned Trump” when he argued against Trump running again after the 2020 election.
“Spadea wants to wrap himself in a MAGA flag and try to fool President Trump and Trump voters into believing that he has been with us all along. It’s a lie,” Donohue asserted. “... Jack has been criss-crossing the state and offering his unequivocal support for President Trump, including appearing at campaign events all over New Jersey rallying support for the President and local Republicans.”
Ciattarelli has endorsed Trump for the 2024 election and contributed to former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s presidential campaign in 2023.
Historically, moderate Republicans have succeeded in New Jersey statewide offices, including former GOP Governors Christine Todd Whitman and Chris Christie. Spadea does not fit that model, though Democrats remain cautious given Harris' tighter victory margins in the state.
Democratic State Sen. Vin Gopal, who has a rapport with Spadea, remarked that Spadea could be “a very serious candidate” based on Trump’s recent performance in New Jersey, coupled with the fact that Democrats have not won three consecutive gubernatorial terms since the early 1960s.
“I think all of that could be a perfect storm if Democrats don't hone in on their message,” Gopal said, emphasizing the need for Democrats to prioritize issues such as affordability, public safety, and illegal immigration.
Additionally, another contender in the Republican primary, Durr, has positioned himself as a staunch Trump advocate. Durr, a trucker who previously served for two years in the state Senate, expressed his intention to seek Trump’s endorsement and described himself as “aligned” with the president-elect. However, he also questioned whether Trump’s endorsement would be a decisive factor in the primary.
“I don't know if it necessarily guarantees victory, but I think it would definitely help any candidate who was to receive it if it was prior to the primary,” Durr commented. “I tend to doubt that Trump will weigh in in the primary… but it would be great if he did and it was on my side.”
Durr affirmed his commitment to remain in the race “unless President Trump came to me personally and asked me to get out of the race.”
State Sen. Jon Bramnick, who is also running for governor in 2025, is generally considered a long shot due to his outspoken anti-Trump stance.
However, despite Trump performing closer than expected in New Jersey, Bramnick noted that his history of losing the state three times, along with the defeats of other candidates who embraced Trump, indicates that a “traditional” moderate, fiscally-conservative Republican is still the only viable choice for statewide success.
“My message hasn’t changed at all, and it’s proven by the fact that even in this environment, Democrats win the statewide races. So if you want to continue down that road, the other candidates are going to lose,” Bramnick explained.
The shift in Trump’s popularity has made it harder for Bramnick to secure a nomination, according to GOP leaders from his home county.
“I think the senator has to take a look in the mirror and say ‘is there really a pathway for me?’ I think it's very doubtful there is,” remarked Joe Sarno, treasurer of the Union County Republican Committee, speaking on behalf of the party. “My question is, why are you still in the race when you know the Republican party is more aligned with Trump than ever?”
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
“I think he made some pretty big mistakes. You know who I’m talking about,” Trump stated, referring to Jack Ciattarelli, a Republican who narrowly lost to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021. “This guy never came to ask for my support. And you know what? When MAGA sees that, they don’t like it and they didn’t vote for him.”
The notion that a Republican candidate in New Jersey, a predominantly Democratic state, would pursue Trump’s endorsement during a general election seemed politically ill-advised at the time. However, after Trump came within six points of defeating Kamala Harris in New Jersey this month, the dynamics for the GOP have shifted dramatically.
Now, with Ciattarelli entering the gubernatorial race once again and Spadea emerging as his principal opponent, both are vying for Trump’s support ahead of the June primary. They will be competing against a pro-MAGA former state senator and an anti-Trump moderate state senator in what is expected to be a chaotic primary, particularly following the collapse of the state's "county line" balloting system, which previously favored candidates endorsed by local party leaders.
Political analysts in New Jersey indicate that support from establishment Republicans will be significant in the race, even in the absence of the county line. Trump’s influence within the GOP means he could be a pivotal figure in the primary process, where appearing as a genuine Trump supporter will be critical.
“They believe Donald Trump is one of the only politicians they can trust to represent their interests,” said Matt Rooney, who runs a popular conservative blog focused on New Jersey politics. “So if you’re working against the one person they trust, necessarily that’s going to make them suspicious of a candidate.”
Support for Trump has already emerged as a key theme in the primary battle.
The Spadea campaign recently unveiled an advertisement featuring past comments from Ciattarelli, pointing out his criticisms of Trump during the 2016 election. The ad utilized artificial intelligence to recreate Ciattarelli’s voice in former statements. Despite the potential legal issues surrounding Trump’s criminal conviction, Ciattarelli is advocating for the renewal of liquor licenses at Trump’s New Jersey golf courses. Meanwhile, former state Sen. Ed Durr, who gained attention for defeating the state Senate president in 2021, posted on X that he is “more MAGA now than ever.”
New Jersey and Virginia will be the only states conducting gubernatorial elections next year, making both critical indicators of the national political mood at the beginning of a new presidential term. Generally, New Jersey voters have shown a greater willingness to elect a Republican governor than a Republican for state-level federal offices. However, Democrats enjoy a registration advantage of 900,000 voters and stronger support from public sector unions, which means successful GOP candidates often moderate their views to attract a broader base of voters.
In past elections, New Jersey Republicans have shunned Trump's endorsements. During the 2024 GOP primary for U.S. Senate, the candidate backed by Trump lost to a Republican supported by the state's party establishment. At the time, the county line ballot design was still in effect in most counties. A new ballot design is being considered for the 2025 primary, and state lawmakers are currently evaluating its format.
Trump's endorsement, already highly coveted in other Republican primary battles nationwide, could prove critical for the governor's race. Spadea, who has Trump's 2020 campaign manager Bill Stepien as a consultant, seems well-positioned to secure it. Spadea, who hosts the drive-time show on New Jersey's largest radio station, has frequently used his platform to champion Trump and spread misinformation about the 2020 election results. When Trump called in to Spadea’s show, he remarked that the host “had my back from the beginning.”
Despite this, Ciattarelli’s camp also has connections to Trump. A pro-Ciattarelli super PAC, “Kitchen Table Conservatives”—led by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway and Katie Miller, who served as Vice President Mike Pence’s press secretary—has been scrutinizing Spadea’s radio show for anti-Trump comments. Ciattarelli himself attended a “Stop the Steal” rally after Trump’s election loss, although he claimed he was unaware of the event’s purpose.
Spadea has not consistently expressed unwavering loyalty to Trump. In 2021, he suggested that Trump should not run for president again and proposed “new blood,” referring to figures like Governors Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem. In a 2022 social media post, Spadea stated that Trump’s “time has passed” and that it was necessary to “move on.”
“Trump wasn’t aware of how Spadea attacked him so much. There’s these videos where he called him a failure, said it was time to move on, time to get somebody else to run. Those are things Trump does not like,” said a Republican supporting Ciattarelli, who spoke anonymously about sensitive matters.
Republicans backing Ciattarelli plan to highlight these comments to Trump while making the case that Ciattarelli, unlike Spadea, stands a better chance of winning the general election.
“There’s a massive file of really foolish and silly things that Spadea has said,” the Republican remarked. “They’re toxic in a general election. Some could say Trump has said some of those things too, but he’s not Trump.”
The Spadea team provided a statement from Ocean County GOP Chair George Gilmore—who was pardoned by Trump after being convicted of tax-related charges and has advised a PAC led by Spadea—attacking Ciattarelli for his previous criticisms of Trump. When Trump initially campaigned in 2016, Ciattarelli labeled him a “charlatan” and suggested he drop out of the election.
“While Jack has been trashing Trump, Bill Spadea has consistently supported President Trump from the beginning,” Gilmore stated. “Like Trump, Bill is an outsider who says what’s on his mind — and that scares the crap out of scripted, career politicians like Jack Ciattarelli.”
In a counter, Ciattarelli’s campaign sent a statement from Cape May County GOP Chair Michael J. Donohue—a Ciattarelli ally—claiming Spadea “abandoned Trump” when he argued against Trump running again after the 2020 election.
“Spadea wants to wrap himself in a MAGA flag and try to fool President Trump and Trump voters into believing that he has been with us all along. It’s a lie,” Donohue asserted. “... Jack has been criss-crossing the state and offering his unequivocal support for President Trump, including appearing at campaign events all over New Jersey rallying support for the President and local Republicans.”
Ciattarelli has endorsed Trump for the 2024 election and contributed to former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s presidential campaign in 2023.
Historically, moderate Republicans have succeeded in New Jersey statewide offices, including former GOP Governors Christine Todd Whitman and Chris Christie. Spadea does not fit that model, though Democrats remain cautious given Harris' tighter victory margins in the state.
Democratic State Sen. Vin Gopal, who has a rapport with Spadea, remarked that Spadea could be “a very serious candidate” based on Trump’s recent performance in New Jersey, coupled with the fact that Democrats have not won three consecutive gubernatorial terms since the early 1960s.
“I think all of that could be a perfect storm if Democrats don't hone in on their message,” Gopal said, emphasizing the need for Democrats to prioritize issues such as affordability, public safety, and illegal immigration.
Additionally, another contender in the Republican primary, Durr, has positioned himself as a staunch Trump advocate. Durr, a trucker who previously served for two years in the state Senate, expressed his intention to seek Trump’s endorsement and described himself as “aligned” with the president-elect. However, he also questioned whether Trump’s endorsement would be a decisive factor in the primary.
“I don't know if it necessarily guarantees victory, but I think it would definitely help any candidate who was to receive it if it was prior to the primary,” Durr commented. “I tend to doubt that Trump will weigh in in the primary… but it would be great if he did and it was on my side.”
Durr affirmed his commitment to remain in the race “unless President Trump came to me personally and asked me to get out of the race.”
State Sen. Jon Bramnick, who is also running for governor in 2025, is generally considered a long shot due to his outspoken anti-Trump stance.
However, despite Trump performing closer than expected in New Jersey, Bramnick noted that his history of losing the state three times, along with the defeats of other candidates who embraced Trump, indicates that a “traditional” moderate, fiscally-conservative Republican is still the only viable choice for statewide success.
“My message hasn’t changed at all, and it’s proven by the fact that even in this environment, Democrats win the statewide races. So if you want to continue down that road, the other candidates are going to lose,” Bramnick explained.
The shift in Trump’s popularity has made it harder for Bramnick to secure a nomination, according to GOP leaders from his home county.
“I think the senator has to take a look in the mirror and say ‘is there really a pathway for me?’ I think it's very doubtful there is,” remarked Joe Sarno, treasurer of the Union County Republican Committee, speaking on behalf of the party. “My question is, why are you still in the race when you know the Republican party is more aligned with Trump than ever?”
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
