GOP Begins Crafting the ‘big, beautiful bill’ Amid High Failure Risks
Republicans are aiming to maintain momentum for their legislative agenda through quick action and support from Donald Trump.
TroibNews 
They anticipate it will be significant. They desire it to be aesthetically pleasing. Now, congressional Republicans are faced with the task of determining what will be included in it — and they’re grappling with the very real chance that they may not reach a consensus.
A recent House vote may have set a fiscal framework for the GOP’s expansive domestic policy bill, but this intermediate step has highlighted substantial divisions between the House and Senate over various critical issues that are essential to completing the extensive legislation, which is expected to cover tax cuts, border security, energy, and more.
Speaker Mike Johnson made considerable commitments to a cadre of fiscal conservatives regarding significant spending reductions, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune has maintained maximum flexibility to satisfy his own conference. Competing factions within the GOP have established various red lines for the bill — many of which are entirely incompatible.
This situation has raised concerns among some Republicans about the future.
“I know the dialectic is supposed to produce a final result, but sometimes it doesn't — many times up here, it doesn't,” remarked Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana. “We can spend an entire year getting nothing done.”
Overarching the GOP’s rush toward a “big, beautiful bill,” as President Donald Trump has insisted, is the memory of what occurred the last time Republicans attempted to pass a significant party-line policy priority following a Trump inauguration. Their 2017 attempt to overhaul American health care faltered after consuming the first seven months of Trump’s presidency.
Many Republicans, especially in the Senate, cautioned against consolidating the party’s entire legislative agenda into one essential package, deeming it a formula for division and delay. However, many of those same voices are currently urging GOP leaders to act swiftly and avoid dragging out the process.
Kennedy expressed a desire for a 60-day timeline to finalize a bill before enlisting Trump to help resolve their disagreements, while Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham stated last week that he aims to have the bill ready for Trump by Memorial Day.
“If this thing drags out too long, I’m gonna say break it apart,” warned Graham, who has advocated for separating the particularly contentious tax policy issues into a second bill. Kennedy added that senators must “assert themselves — they can't just come to our lunches and bitch.”
Johnson and Thune are aware of the urgency.
They’ve encouraged their committee chairs to utilize the two-week recess currently underway to intensify their private discussions with members and start bridging the significant gaps between the two chambers, aiming to have committees begin advancing pieces of the megabill once lawmakers reconvene in Washington at the end of the month. The joint budget plan approved Thursday instructs committees to deliver their respective sections by May 9, although that deadline is not enforceable.
House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington told reporters that the House would take the lead in drafting the megabill, echoing Graham’s ambitious intention of getting it to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day. However, Arrington cautioned that if Senate Republicans “materially change” the bill sent from the House, “that’s only going to imperil the ‘America First’ agenda, and it’s only going to prolong the process.”
Senators traditionally resist yielding to their House counterparts and have publicly signaled that their chamber’s rules will dictate the final result. Many Senate Republicans also feel that they are not bound by the House’s fiscal targets, which include a goal of at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts.
The Senate committees have a significantly lower deficit reduction goal. Although Thune sought to reassure the House’s deficit hawks and aligned himself with Johnson’s objectives, he notably refrained from committing to that figure. He acknowledged that he has colleagues on “both sides” regarding the push for $1.5 trillion.
“I’m concerned about how we’re going to figure out how we do this between two bodies,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski regarding the House target.
Meanwhile, Johnson is contending with his own well-known challenges. In order to finalize the budget plan on Thursday, he promised holdouts that the eventual bill would adhere to the House’s framework — including the $1.5 trillion minimum for cuts. The speaker was so eager to secure a deal he told hard-liners they could remove him from his position if he failed to uphold his commitments.
A preview of upcoming headaches emerged when Thune’s comment about “both sides” drew an immediate rebuke from Rep. Chip Roy, a key fiscal hawk who criticized a significant aspect of the Senate’s proposal: counting an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts as costing nothing. The Texas Republican warned that failing to meet deficit reduction goals would “make it impossible for me to support a final reconciliation product.”
Even some Senate Republicans, including usual leadership allies, share concerns that the final bill may sidestep major spending cuts. “We have a famous tradition around here of eating our dessert and not our vegetables,” remarked Sen. John Cornyn.
The fiscal tensions have exacerbated the pessimism among certain Republicans, with Kennedy forecasting an impasse between the House and Senate GOP that would lead to Trump needing to “break the tie,” “arbitrate the trade-offs,” and “put his muscle behind” any bill to advance it to his desk.
One of the significant issues Trump will likely have to mediate involves addressing the contentious health care topic that previously baffled him.
The House budget includes a directive for the Energy and Commerce Committee to reduce the deficit by $880 billion — a mandate that could prove unachievable without significant cuts to Medicaid, the safety-net health program that insures millions of Americans.
Factions of Republicans in both chambers harbor serious reservations about pursuing this avenue. While some GOP senators have broached the idea of implementing narrow work requirements, even supporters of broader reforms acknowledge they lack the votes to support another concept the House is entertaining to meet its ambitious fiscal target: reducing the federal government’s share of Medicaid expansion payments.
Leaders are acutely aware that difficult choices lie ahead, with numerous votes on the line. As Johnson sought to finalize his agreement with conservative fiscal hawks on Thursday, he hurried to the House floor to assure several moderate Republicans that he would not eliminate Medicaid benefits, according to lawmakers present. The group had held back their votes until they received those assurances from the speaker.
“We made it very clear once again that we would not vote for anything that takes away benefits from legally eligible recipients,” emphasized Rep. Nicole Malliotakis.
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
A recent House vote may have set a fiscal framework for the GOP’s expansive domestic policy bill, but this intermediate step has highlighted substantial divisions between the House and Senate over various critical issues that are essential to completing the extensive legislation, which is expected to cover tax cuts, border security, energy, and more.
Speaker Mike Johnson made considerable commitments to a cadre of fiscal conservatives regarding significant spending reductions, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune has maintained maximum flexibility to satisfy his own conference. Competing factions within the GOP have established various red lines for the bill — many of which are entirely incompatible.
This situation has raised concerns among some Republicans about the future.
“I know the dialectic is supposed to produce a final result, but sometimes it doesn't — many times up here, it doesn't,” remarked Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana. “We can spend an entire year getting nothing done.”
Overarching the GOP’s rush toward a “big, beautiful bill,” as President Donald Trump has insisted, is the memory of what occurred the last time Republicans attempted to pass a significant party-line policy priority following a Trump inauguration. Their 2017 attempt to overhaul American health care faltered after consuming the first seven months of Trump’s presidency.
Many Republicans, especially in the Senate, cautioned against consolidating the party’s entire legislative agenda into one essential package, deeming it a formula for division and delay. However, many of those same voices are currently urging GOP leaders to act swiftly and avoid dragging out the process.
Kennedy expressed a desire for a 60-day timeline to finalize a bill before enlisting Trump to help resolve their disagreements, while Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham stated last week that he aims to have the bill ready for Trump by Memorial Day.
“If this thing drags out too long, I’m gonna say break it apart,” warned Graham, who has advocated for separating the particularly contentious tax policy issues into a second bill. Kennedy added that senators must “assert themselves — they can't just come to our lunches and bitch.”
Johnson and Thune are aware of the urgency.
They’ve encouraged their committee chairs to utilize the two-week recess currently underway to intensify their private discussions with members and start bridging the significant gaps between the two chambers, aiming to have committees begin advancing pieces of the megabill once lawmakers reconvene in Washington at the end of the month. The joint budget plan approved Thursday instructs committees to deliver their respective sections by May 9, although that deadline is not enforceable.
House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington told reporters that the House would take the lead in drafting the megabill, echoing Graham’s ambitious intention of getting it to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day. However, Arrington cautioned that if Senate Republicans “materially change” the bill sent from the House, “that’s only going to imperil the ‘America First’ agenda, and it’s only going to prolong the process.”
Senators traditionally resist yielding to their House counterparts and have publicly signaled that their chamber’s rules will dictate the final result. Many Senate Republicans also feel that they are not bound by the House’s fiscal targets, which include a goal of at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts.
The Senate committees have a significantly lower deficit reduction goal. Although Thune sought to reassure the House’s deficit hawks and aligned himself with Johnson’s objectives, he notably refrained from committing to that figure. He acknowledged that he has colleagues on “both sides” regarding the push for $1.5 trillion.
“I’m concerned about how we’re going to figure out how we do this between two bodies,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski regarding the House target.
Meanwhile, Johnson is contending with his own well-known challenges. In order to finalize the budget plan on Thursday, he promised holdouts that the eventual bill would adhere to the House’s framework — including the $1.5 trillion minimum for cuts. The speaker was so eager to secure a deal he told hard-liners they could remove him from his position if he failed to uphold his commitments.
A preview of upcoming headaches emerged when Thune’s comment about “both sides” drew an immediate rebuke from Rep. Chip Roy, a key fiscal hawk who criticized a significant aspect of the Senate’s proposal: counting an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts as costing nothing. The Texas Republican warned that failing to meet deficit reduction goals would “make it impossible for me to support a final reconciliation product.”
Even some Senate Republicans, including usual leadership allies, share concerns that the final bill may sidestep major spending cuts. “We have a famous tradition around here of eating our dessert and not our vegetables,” remarked Sen. John Cornyn.
The fiscal tensions have exacerbated the pessimism among certain Republicans, with Kennedy forecasting an impasse between the House and Senate GOP that would lead to Trump needing to “break the tie,” “arbitrate the trade-offs,” and “put his muscle behind” any bill to advance it to his desk.
One of the significant issues Trump will likely have to mediate involves addressing the contentious health care topic that previously baffled him.
The House budget includes a directive for the Energy and Commerce Committee to reduce the deficit by $880 billion — a mandate that could prove unachievable without significant cuts to Medicaid, the safety-net health program that insures millions of Americans.
Factions of Republicans in both chambers harbor serious reservations about pursuing this avenue. While some GOP senators have broached the idea of implementing narrow work requirements, even supporters of broader reforms acknowledge they lack the votes to support another concept the House is entertaining to meet its ambitious fiscal target: reducing the federal government’s share of Medicaid expansion payments.
Leaders are acutely aware that difficult choices lie ahead, with numerous votes on the line. As Johnson sought to finalize his agreement with conservative fiscal hawks on Thursday, he hurried to the House floor to assure several moderate Republicans that he would not eliminate Medicaid benefits, according to lawmakers present. The group had held back their votes until they received those assurances from the speaker.
“We made it very clear once again that we would not vote for anything that takes away benefits from legally eligible recipients,” emphasized Rep. Nicole Malliotakis.
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
