Dmitry Trenin: Russia's Strategy Extends Far Beyond Ukraine
The article discusses how Donald Trump has the potential to alter the global order, with Russia likely anticipating a successful outcome from his actions. Read Full Article at RT.com
TroibNews 
**Trump Could Reshape the Global Order, and Moscow Will Be Hoping He Succeeds**
The revival of US-Russia dialogue has raised concerns, particularly in Western Europe, where many fear a potential repeat of Yalta—a significant power settlement occurring without their involvement. While commentary around this topic may be overstated, it is evident that the dynamics of global change have accelerated. The recent statements and actions from US President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and other prominent Republican leaders indicate that Washington is not resisting but rather embracing the shift toward a new world order.
Historically, the United States has preferred to adapt when faced with a turning tide of history; it seeks to navigate these changes rather than succumb to them. The Trump administration is not trying to maintain the crumbling unipolarity established after the Cold War but is instead reconfiguring US foreign policy to ensure America’s leadership in a multipolar arena. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has clearly stated that multipolarity is an already existing fact. The objective for Washington is to be “primus inter pares”—first among equals—rather than a faltering hegemon.
**America’s New Global Approach**
Trump’s strategy for North America is clear: the region, from Greenland to Mexico and Panama, will be securely tied to the US, whether through economic integration or military support. Latin America is included in this sphere, with Washington aiming to prevent outside powers, especially China, from gaining excessive influence. The essence of the Monroe Doctrine remains intact.
In contrast, Trump views Western Europe as a dependent entity that has been indulged for too long. His administration's message is straightforward: Europe must pay its fair share, both militarily and economically. Trump and his advisors perceive the European Union not as a major power, but rather as a fragmented and weak organization that clings to false notions of equality with the US.
Regarding NATO, it is seen as an outdated tool, one that Washington might utilize but only under its own conditions. The US desires a geopolitical counterpart to Russia in Western Europe but has little patience for the EU’s aspirations for independence.
**China: The Real Adversary**
While Europe presents challenges, Trump’s primary focus is on China. The administration is committed to ensuring that Beijing does not outpace Washington in global dominance. Unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China represents a much more formidable economic and technological competitor for US supremacy. Nevertheless, Trump perceives a strategic opportunity in multipolarity: rather than be embroiled in a global Cold War, the US can utilize great power dynamics to keep China's ambitions in check.
India figures prominently in this strategy. Trump recently hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscoring America’s intent to strengthen ties with India economically and technologically. Despite some stabilization in India-China relations since last year’s Modi-Xi meeting at the BRICS summit, their long-standing rivalry persists. The US aims to cultivate this divide, positioning India as a foil to Beijing in the Indo-Pacific.
**Russia’s Position in the New Order**
This broader geopolitical landscape influences the evolving US-Russia relations. Trump appears to recognize that previous administrations, specifically those of Joe Biden and Barack Obama, miscalculated by driving Moscow into an alliance with China. The aggressive expansion of NATO and the imposition of sanctions inadvertently bolstered a Eurasian bloc now incorporating Iran and North Korea.
Recognizing the shortcomings of Biden’s Ukraine strategy, which aimed for a “strategic defeat” of Russia—militarily, economically, and politically—Trump notes that these efforts have fallen short. Russia's economy has weathered extensive sanctions, its military has adapted, and Moscow remains a crucial global player.
Trump now seeks a resolution in Ukraine that consolidates established frontlines while transferring the financial responsibility of supporting Kiev more heavily onto Europe. Additionally, his administration is focused on diminishing Russia's connections with China, Iran, and North Korea. This underscores the rationale behind Trump's outreach to Moscow—it is less about forging peace and more about recalibrating America’s position in the face of a long-term rivalry with China.
**The Kremlin’s View: No Illusions**
The Kremlin views Washington's willingness to engage directly as a welcome development. The contrasting respectful tone of Trump’s administration stands in stark opposition to Biden’s hostile approach, characterized by maximalist demands. Nonetheless, Russia is under no illusions. While a ceasefire in Ukraine may be on the table, a comprehensive agreement appears unlikely.
Trump has yet to propose a detailed peace plan. Conversely, Putin has clear objectives: recognition of Russia's territorial gains, security guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, and an end to Western efforts to destabilize Russia via sanctions and proxy warfare. Many within the Trump administration find these terms unacceptable.
Moreover, Trump’s team seems to believe that Russia, weakened by conflict, is eager for a deal. This assessment may be misguided; Moscow is not looking for merely a ceasefire, but rather a lasting resolution that guarantees its security. Putin understands that reliable assurances must be secured through Russia’s own strength.
**No Yalta 2.0—Yet**
Those anticipating a new Yalta settlement may find themselves disappointed. There will not be an immediate peace conference or sweeping agreements to fundamentally reshape the global order overnight. Instead, a new world order is gradually taking form.
This order will be complex, featuring various power centers with distinct roles. At the global level, a quadrangle of the US, China, India, and Russia will be predominant, while regional blocs will emerge, with key players—Western Europe, Brazil, Iran, and others—contesting for influence within their respective areas.
The resolution of the Ukraine conflict, whenever it occurs, will serve as a significant milestone in this transition, as will the potential of Trump’s return to the presidency, which could further expedite the move away from the post-Cold War unipolar status quo.
For Russia, the main objective remains to secure its strategic interests in Ukraine and beyond. For the US, the challenge is to reposition itself as a leading force in a multipolar world without stretching its resources too thin. For Western Europe, the pressing concern is survival in adapting to a new reality where it is no longer at the core of global decision-making.
As history unfolds rapidly, those who do not adapt may find themselves sidelined.
Ian Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
The revival of US-Russia dialogue has raised concerns, particularly in Western Europe, where many fear a potential repeat of Yalta—a significant power settlement occurring without their involvement. While commentary around this topic may be overstated, it is evident that the dynamics of global change have accelerated. The recent statements and actions from US President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and other prominent Republican leaders indicate that Washington is not resisting but rather embracing the shift toward a new world order.
Historically, the United States has preferred to adapt when faced with a turning tide of history; it seeks to navigate these changes rather than succumb to them. The Trump administration is not trying to maintain the crumbling unipolarity established after the Cold War but is instead reconfiguring US foreign policy to ensure America’s leadership in a multipolar arena. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has clearly stated that multipolarity is an already existing fact. The objective for Washington is to be “primus inter pares”—first among equals—rather than a faltering hegemon.
**America’s New Global Approach**
Trump’s strategy for North America is clear: the region, from Greenland to Mexico and Panama, will be securely tied to the US, whether through economic integration or military support. Latin America is included in this sphere, with Washington aiming to prevent outside powers, especially China, from gaining excessive influence. The essence of the Monroe Doctrine remains intact.
In contrast, Trump views Western Europe as a dependent entity that has been indulged for too long. His administration's message is straightforward: Europe must pay its fair share, both militarily and economically. Trump and his advisors perceive the European Union not as a major power, but rather as a fragmented and weak organization that clings to false notions of equality with the US.
Regarding NATO, it is seen as an outdated tool, one that Washington might utilize but only under its own conditions. The US desires a geopolitical counterpart to Russia in Western Europe but has little patience for the EU’s aspirations for independence.
**China: The Real Adversary**
While Europe presents challenges, Trump’s primary focus is on China. The administration is committed to ensuring that Beijing does not outpace Washington in global dominance. Unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China represents a much more formidable economic and technological competitor for US supremacy. Nevertheless, Trump perceives a strategic opportunity in multipolarity: rather than be embroiled in a global Cold War, the US can utilize great power dynamics to keep China's ambitions in check.
India figures prominently in this strategy. Trump recently hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscoring America’s intent to strengthen ties with India economically and technologically. Despite some stabilization in India-China relations since last year’s Modi-Xi meeting at the BRICS summit, their long-standing rivalry persists. The US aims to cultivate this divide, positioning India as a foil to Beijing in the Indo-Pacific.
**Russia’s Position in the New Order**
This broader geopolitical landscape influences the evolving US-Russia relations. Trump appears to recognize that previous administrations, specifically those of Joe Biden and Barack Obama, miscalculated by driving Moscow into an alliance with China. The aggressive expansion of NATO and the imposition of sanctions inadvertently bolstered a Eurasian bloc now incorporating Iran and North Korea.
Recognizing the shortcomings of Biden’s Ukraine strategy, which aimed for a “strategic defeat” of Russia—militarily, economically, and politically—Trump notes that these efforts have fallen short. Russia's economy has weathered extensive sanctions, its military has adapted, and Moscow remains a crucial global player.
Trump now seeks a resolution in Ukraine that consolidates established frontlines while transferring the financial responsibility of supporting Kiev more heavily onto Europe. Additionally, his administration is focused on diminishing Russia's connections with China, Iran, and North Korea. This underscores the rationale behind Trump's outreach to Moscow—it is less about forging peace and more about recalibrating America’s position in the face of a long-term rivalry with China.
**The Kremlin’s View: No Illusions**
The Kremlin views Washington's willingness to engage directly as a welcome development. The contrasting respectful tone of Trump’s administration stands in stark opposition to Biden’s hostile approach, characterized by maximalist demands. Nonetheless, Russia is under no illusions. While a ceasefire in Ukraine may be on the table, a comprehensive agreement appears unlikely.
Trump has yet to propose a detailed peace plan. Conversely, Putin has clear objectives: recognition of Russia's territorial gains, security guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, and an end to Western efforts to destabilize Russia via sanctions and proxy warfare. Many within the Trump administration find these terms unacceptable.
Moreover, Trump’s team seems to believe that Russia, weakened by conflict, is eager for a deal. This assessment may be misguided; Moscow is not looking for merely a ceasefire, but rather a lasting resolution that guarantees its security. Putin understands that reliable assurances must be secured through Russia’s own strength.
**No Yalta 2.0—Yet**
Those anticipating a new Yalta settlement may find themselves disappointed. There will not be an immediate peace conference or sweeping agreements to fundamentally reshape the global order overnight. Instead, a new world order is gradually taking form.
This order will be complex, featuring various power centers with distinct roles. At the global level, a quadrangle of the US, China, India, and Russia will be predominant, while regional blocs will emerge, with key players—Western Europe, Brazil, Iran, and others—contesting for influence within their respective areas.
The resolution of the Ukraine conflict, whenever it occurs, will serve as a significant milestone in this transition, as will the potential of Trump’s return to the presidency, which could further expedite the move away from the post-Cold War unipolar status quo.
For Russia, the main objective remains to secure its strategic interests in Ukraine and beyond. For the US, the challenge is to reposition itself as a leading force in a multipolar world without stretching its resources too thin. For Western Europe, the pressing concern is survival in adapting to a new reality where it is no longer at the core of global decision-making.
As history unfolds rapidly, those who do not adapt may find themselves sidelined.
Ian Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
