CIA now regards a lab leak as the more likely origin of Covid-19
The intelligence agency has maintained for years that it cannot confirm the origin of the pandemic.
TroibNews 
The Central Intelligence Agency announced on Saturday that it now assesses it is more likely the Covid-19 pandemic originated from a lab leak rather than from an infected animal spreading the virus to humans. This marks a shift in the agency’s long-held position, which stated it could not definitively determine the pandemic’s origins.
The updated assessment was disclosed just two days after former Republican lawmaker John Ratcliffe assumed leadership of the agency.
"We have low confidence in this judgement and will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA's assessment,” an unnamed CIA spokesperson stated in an email to reporters on Saturday.
The announcement did not provide further information on what prompted the agency's revised stance or any intelligence supporting the theory of a virus leak from a research facility in Wuhan, China.
The statement clarified that “CIA continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the Covid-19 pandemic remain plausible."
According to a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, former CIA director William Burns had directed analysts to establish a position on the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, though he maintained an agnostic view on the various theories.
A new internal CIA analysis of the intelligence surrounding the virus’s origin was completed and published prior to Ratcliffe's appointment, according to the official. Ratcliffe subsequently approved its public release.
The significance of this shift is notable as Congressional Republicans have increasingly supported the unproven lab leak theory, highlighting the link between the initial Covid-19 cases reported in Wuhan and the concurrent research conducted at a virology lab in the area.
However, numerous virologists continue to advocate for a natural origin of the virus, suggesting it may have transmitted among individuals who came into contact with infected animals sold at a wet market in Wuhan.
An unclassified assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in 2023 indicated that the intelligence community was divided regarding the pandemic's origins, with more agencies at that time favoring a natural cause.
The FBI has expressed moderate confidence in the lab leak theory, while the Department of Energy indicated low confidence in that hypothesis.
Ratcliffe, serving as national intelligence director during President Donald Trump’s first term, previously suggested at a Heritage Foundation event last summer that the CIA's indecisiveness over concluding the pandemic's possible origin stemmed from “political and financial considerations” rather than an inability to reach a decision.
During the same event, Ratcliffe recounted his experience upon taking office in 2020, amid the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, when he requested evidence supporting the intelligence community's earlier determination of a natural origin for the virus.
“The vast preponderance of it said exactly the opposite, said exactly what we've concluded, is that most likely, all of the intelligence that we had — circumstantial though it may be — pointed towards this being a research-related incident, not naturally occurring,” Ratcliffe noted.
In a recent interview with Breitbart, Ratcliffe emphasized that determining “why the Central Intelligence Agency has been sitting on the sidelines for five years in not making an assessment about the origins of Covid” was a top priority for him.
The Chinese government has consistently denied that the pandemic was triggered by a leak from the Wuhan lab.
Sen. Tom Cotton, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, remarked, “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
The updated assessment was disclosed just two days after former Republican lawmaker John Ratcliffe assumed leadership of the agency.
"We have low confidence in this judgement and will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA's assessment,” an unnamed CIA spokesperson stated in an email to reporters on Saturday.
The announcement did not provide further information on what prompted the agency's revised stance or any intelligence supporting the theory of a virus leak from a research facility in Wuhan, China.
The statement clarified that “CIA continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the Covid-19 pandemic remain plausible."
According to a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, former CIA director William Burns had directed analysts to establish a position on the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, though he maintained an agnostic view on the various theories.
A new internal CIA analysis of the intelligence surrounding the virus’s origin was completed and published prior to Ratcliffe's appointment, according to the official. Ratcliffe subsequently approved its public release.
The significance of this shift is notable as Congressional Republicans have increasingly supported the unproven lab leak theory, highlighting the link between the initial Covid-19 cases reported in Wuhan and the concurrent research conducted at a virology lab in the area.
However, numerous virologists continue to advocate for a natural origin of the virus, suggesting it may have transmitted among individuals who came into contact with infected animals sold at a wet market in Wuhan.
An unclassified assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in 2023 indicated that the intelligence community was divided regarding the pandemic's origins, with more agencies at that time favoring a natural cause.
The FBI has expressed moderate confidence in the lab leak theory, while the Department of Energy indicated low confidence in that hypothesis.
Ratcliffe, serving as national intelligence director during President Donald Trump’s first term, previously suggested at a Heritage Foundation event last summer that the CIA's indecisiveness over concluding the pandemic's possible origin stemmed from “political and financial considerations” rather than an inability to reach a decision.
During the same event, Ratcliffe recounted his experience upon taking office in 2020, amid the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, when he requested evidence supporting the intelligence community's earlier determination of a natural origin for the virus.
“The vast preponderance of it said exactly the opposite, said exactly what we've concluded, is that most likely, all of the intelligence that we had — circumstantial though it may be — pointed towards this being a research-related incident, not naturally occurring,” Ratcliffe noted.
In a recent interview with Breitbart, Ratcliffe emphasized that determining “why the Central Intelligence Agency has been sitting on the sidelines for five years in not making an assessment about the origins of Covid” was a top priority for him.
The Chinese government has consistently denied that the pandemic was triggered by a leak from the Wuhan lab.
Sen. Tom Cotton, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, remarked, “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
