Betting on US elections spikes after landmark court decision
Prediction markets are experiencing a notable rise in popularity, allowing wagers of up to $100 million on either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Read Full Article at RT.com
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Prediction markets are now allowing wagers of up to $100 million on either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump
Election betting in the United States has significantly increased following a court ruling that lifted previous restrictions on the practice. This change permits platforms to accommodate large stakes in the presidential race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic counterpart, Vice President Kamala Harris.
This increase in activity comes after a legal win for the trading platform Kalshi, which successfully contested the opposition from a US regulator in court last week.
Kalshi, now authorized to operate, enables investors to place bets of up to $100 million on the outcome of the upcoming November election. Current forecasts on the platform indicate a competitive race, with Trump slightly leading Harris.
The legal showdown intensified when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission attempted to block Kalshi, contending that election betting poses a threat to democratic integrity by resembling gambling. However, a Washington court ruled in favor of Kalshi, citing a lack of sufficient evidence for potential harm. The CFTC is currently appealing this decision.
Following the ruling, Kalshi has reported over $12 million in bets. Founder Tarek Mansour mentioned the company's efforts to attract additional traders, including institutional investors. “We’ve seen strong early interest, but we expect volumes to climb as election day approaches,” Mansour stated.
Betting odds indicate Trump holds the largest lead over Harris
Bets are placed using binary options, with each contract priced at up to $1. As of Monday, contracts favoring Trump were trading at 54 cents, while those supporting Harris were priced at 47 cents. This narrow margin has varied since the market's inception, but analysts advise caution in drawing definitive conclusions from these figures.
“While these numbers suggest traders are leaning towards a Trump victory, the true picture will become clearer with more institutional money in play,” noted Grant Ferguson, a political scientist at Texas Christian University.
Offshore platforms, like Polymarket, have also experienced a surge in election-related betting, with more than $1.9 billion currently wagered. Experts anticipate this amount could increase tenfold as Election Day approaches.
Nevertheless, concerns persist regarding the potential effects of election betting on voter perceptions and the democratic process, and these issues are expected to remain relevant as legal appeals continue.
James del Carmen contributed to this report for TROIB News
Election betting in the United States has significantly increased following a court ruling that lifted previous restrictions on the practice. This change permits platforms to accommodate large stakes in the presidential race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic counterpart, Vice President Kamala Harris.
This increase in activity comes after a legal win for the trading platform Kalshi, which successfully contested the opposition from a US regulator in court last week.
Kalshi, now authorized to operate, enables investors to place bets of up to $100 million on the outcome of the upcoming November election. Current forecasts on the platform indicate a competitive race, with Trump slightly leading Harris.
The legal showdown intensified when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission attempted to block Kalshi, contending that election betting poses a threat to democratic integrity by resembling gambling. However, a Washington court ruled in favor of Kalshi, citing a lack of sufficient evidence for potential harm. The CFTC is currently appealing this decision.
Following the ruling, Kalshi has reported over $12 million in bets. Founder Tarek Mansour mentioned the company's efforts to attract additional traders, including institutional investors. “We’ve seen strong early interest, but we expect volumes to climb as election day approaches,” Mansour stated.
Betting odds indicate Trump holds the largest lead over Harris
Bets are placed using binary options, with each contract priced at up to $1. As of Monday, contracts favoring Trump were trading at 54 cents, while those supporting Harris were priced at 47 cents. This narrow margin has varied since the market's inception, but analysts advise caution in drawing definitive conclusions from these figures.
“While these numbers suggest traders are leaning towards a Trump victory, the true picture will become clearer with more institutional money in play,” noted Grant Ferguson, a political scientist at Texas Christian University.
Offshore platforms, like Polymarket, have also experienced a surge in election-related betting, with more than $1.9 billion currently wagered. Experts anticipate this amount could increase tenfold as Election Day approaches.
Nevertheless, concerns persist regarding the potential effects of election betting on voter perceptions and the democratic process, and these issues are expected to remain relevant as legal appeals continue.
James del Carmen contributed to this report for TROIB News
