Anxiety mounts over Biden’s early fundraising

Nobody in Joe Biden’s world of big money donors is sweating it — and least not yet.

But as the president sets out for the customary end-of-quarter haul, with a big swing of fundraising events through America’s big-money alcoves, a concern has crept in. In interviews with more than a dozen bundlers and donors across the country in recent weeks, as well as late-arriving pleas reviewed by West Wing Playbook, people have expressed nervousness that early fundraisers aren’t delivering as they’d hoped.

Sure, they reason, it’s hard in the off-year when you don’t have an opponent to tear into. There will be plenty of time to ensure the future of democracy continues apace. But while the campaign believes its operation is in a good place, others in its orbit are anxious.

Two people who sent out a flurry of invites for fundraising events in California this week said they received only single-digit responses. One joked that the same two or three dozen Democrats were emailing and calling the same list — guaranteeing the low return rate they saw. An email from one fundraiser informed recipients of “limited Reduced Price Tickets” for Biden’s fundraiser Monday evening in tony Atherton, Calif., a development they attributed — dubiously — to “the demand to see the president.” The person who forwarded the email, perhaps ironically, balked at buying a ticket.

Such emails are typical among bundlers trying to bring more people into their fold, and one DNC official dismissed the early anxiety as typical sky-is-falling tactics that bundlers use every election cycle. While Biden won’t share his official fundraising numbers until the end of quarter, a person close to the campaign expressed confidence about building on a successful operation from 2020 that raised a record $1 billion and optimism from seeing significant levels of new donors at the grassroots level, which powered the campaign three years ago.

The California events this week still raised millions. Tuesday afternoon’s fundraiser in Marin County, which was hosted by Gov. Gavin Newsom, brought in roughly $2 million alone, according to an aide to the governor. But the gatherings were smaller than organizers had hoped, and had fewer new faces in the crowd. That said, the campaign ended the three-day swing encouraged by the events in California.

Another Biden bundler described the struggle to sell the high-dollar tickets for a Nashville event this coming weekend with first lady Jill Biden. While the less expensive tickets were an easier sell, the fundraiser said the city’s top Democratic donors were stretched thin given the competitive mayoral and city council races taking place in August.

Biden is a notoriously poor fundraiser, having struggled with it during his prior presidential bids. But the good news this time around, as he seeks to raise $2 billion this cycle, is that he has time and little immediate need to spend. Not having a primary allows him to sock cash away for next year’s bruising general election.

The bad news about having no primary is that fundraising this early in the cycle is harder, with donors still exhausted from last fall’s midterms and less than fully engaged in an election still 16 months away. As one person with knowledge of the fundraising efforts put it: “The money they are getting now is mostly the low-hanging fruit.”

Campaign veterans will point out that’s often how it goes in the early months, with dollars freely flowing in once the opponent is clear. For comparison, former president Barack Obama raised a combined $86 million for his campaign and the DNC in the second quarter of 2011 after declaring his candidacy for reelection.

Ultimately, Democratic bundlers expect Biden will raise however much cash is required for an election cycle that, like each one before it, is all but certain to shatter records for the amount spent. And whether donors are enthused about a second Biden term or not, the prospect of former President Donald Trump taking back the White House will likely be enough to scare them into smashing the “DONATE” button.

But in the short term, finances have been a primary factor in the campaign’s slow operational launch and ramp up. Two months after Biden’s April announcement, the timing of which wastriggered in part by the hiring of a film crew to make a launch video, there are only a few people on staff under campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez, who is currently working out of the Democratic National Committee’s offices in Washington.

Relying almost entirely still on the DNC’s data, research and communications teams and holding off on renting space for a separate headquarters has allowed the campaign to spend almost nothing so far. Biden, in fact, is the first presidential candidate to begin the cycle with joint fundraising agreements between his campaign and state parties in all 50 states and Washington. That coordination, a point of emphasis for Biden’s political operation in the lull between presidential election cycles, is expected to mean more staffers and volunteers on the ground in key states.

But for all the good spin about the structure in place, a simple truth remains about the state of Biden’s campaign coffers: his team isn’t really giving a detailed picture of it. After its video launch, the campaign did not disclose how much it brought in from donors in the first 24 or 48 hours. The first clear picture will come next month, once its first quarterly FEC report is disclosed.