Americans Despise Rising Costs. Mass Expulsions Could Lead to Further Increases.
Trump has promised that mass deportation will be a top priority from day one, asserting that he has “no choice” but to deport anyone residing in the U.S. without legal status.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump’s ascent to the presidency was characterized by commitments to reduce inflation and expel millions of immigrants. However, as he assumes office, reconciling these pledges with an economy that increasingly relies on immigrant labor to maintain low prices and productivity will be a significant challenge.
Various industries, including construction, healthcare, and agriculture, depend heavily on immigrants for their workforce, with immigrants comprising about a quarter to half of certain essential job roles crucial for constructing homes, caring for the elderly, and producing food, according to government data. The Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas report that the influx of immigrants during the Biden administration — with as many as 3.3 million arriving in 2023 alone, including those who entered illegally — has significantly boosted economic output and addressed the urgent need for new workers as the native-born workforce ages.
As Trump is inaugurated as the 47th president, he faces a formidable task: addressing one of the country’s primary concerns — immigration — while avoiding a potential rise in consumer prices, a worry even expressed by some of his supporters.
“The two reasons that Trump won the election” were voter anger over both immigration and inflation, stated former Trump adviser Stephen Moore, who serves as a senior visiting fellow in economics at the Heritage Foundation.
“There is no question that having eight to 10 million people deported — many of whom are working — would put a strain on the economy,” he added. “You could see an inflationary impact to getting rid of some of these workers — for sure.”
Trump has insisted that mass deportation will be a priority from day one, focusing initially on those with criminal records while declaring he has “no choice” but to deport anyone unlawfully residing in the U.S.
The economic consequences of such actions could be vast. Experts warn that grocery prices could rise due to decreased agricultural output, housing construction costs might soar, and staffing shortages in nursing homes and home health services could worsen, further elevating healthcare costs. The overall impact will depend on how many workers are ultimately deported and whether there is a surge in outmigration or a slowdown in the arrival of new working-age migrants.
Although inflation has moderated over the past year, prices remain over 20 percent higher than when President Joe Biden took office.
Unauthorized immigrants constitute a substantial segment of the workforce. Estimates from demographers at the Pew Research Center suggest there are approximately 8.3 million undocumented immigrants employed in the U.S., accounting for around 5 percent of the total labor force, with particularly high representation in construction and agricultural jobs — over 10 percent — and nearly 7 percent among home health aides.
Some of Trump’s allies argue that the fears surrounding the deportation of up to 20 million undocumented immigrants are exaggerated. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump’s transition team, asserted that the "real economic crisis is the $182 billion American tax dollars spent each year to cover the costs of 20 million illegal immigrants that have flooded our communities and replaced American workers."
According to Steven Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies — an anti-immigration think tank cited by Trump’s homeland security adviser Stephen Miller — there is currently no infrastructure to facilitate the immediate deportation of such large numbers. He added that increasing wages for lower-income positions could actually improve labor force participation rates among younger males, which are currently below historical levels.
“They crowd out the native-born,” he stated. “But putting that aside, the worst aspect of immigration is that it lets us say: ‘Who gives a shit? We'll just hire the eager immigrants. And if all these men are on the sidelines in rural America or in cities, what do I care? I got this eager immigrant who's willing to fix my roof or work at McDonald's or babysit my kid — babysitting wouldn't be what men do — or work in construction or be a janitor.’ And I think that’s why it’s so bad.”
Former acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf, who now oversees the homeland security and immigration branch of the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute, pointed out that the U.S. has historically not deported more than 400,000 individuals in a single year. Trump mentioned on NBC’s "Meet the Press" that initial deportations would focus on unauthorized immigrants with criminal records, totaling about 425,000 according to data from DHS, stating “then we’re starting with others and we’re going to see how it goes.”
Wolf remarked, “If there's 16 workplace raids in agriculture over the course of two months, then yeah, let's start talking about how [the economic impact] may be a concern.” He expressed that until there are concrete facts, the fears surrounding economic repercussions are somewhat overblown.
Nonetheless, both economists and business leaders are raising alarms about the insufficient worker supply to offset a sudden drop in the immigrant workforce. Such an economic shock could threaten growth, employment rates, and contribute to inflation.
“The number of employed workers in America would be rapidly shrinking today without immigration,” noted George Mason University professor Michael Clemens, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who studies migration impacts. “All of our jobs depend on the growing economy, and the growing economy can only exist due to immigration.”
The housing sector, specifically, is identified by both Trump and Democratic leaders as a significant area for growth. With rising rents and home prices pushing overall inflation higher, Trump’s designated leader for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Scott Turner, emphasizes the need for “millions of new homes” to alleviate the affordability crisis.
Realizing these plans will require substantial labor. National Association of Home Builders CEO Jim Tobin stated his trust in Trump’s immigration policy, while cautioning that strategies targeting immigrant workers could further weaken the already strained construction labor market.
“Until we train enough domestic workers and track more young people into the skilled trades here in the U.S., we're going to need to go across our borders for immigration,” he asserted, adding that creating more legal pathways for construction workers is preferable. He noted, “The only way to solve the housing shortage is to build ourselves out of it, and putting policies in place that slow that down and make that harder, are at your own political harm or risk.”
Clemens also mentioned research on the effects of the Secure Communities program, which required local law enforcement to submit fingerprints to federal immigration authorities. The findings indicated that crackdowns on undocumented immigration can significantly reduce labor supply and decelerate new home construction.
Previous studies led by University of Colorado Denver Professor Chloe East revealed that the suppression of undocumented workers triggered spillover effects that diminished demand for U.S.-born laborers within local economies.
“Unauthorized workers in America are not just selling labor and competing with other sellers of labor. They are critical ingredients in production, and removal of those ingredients reduces production,” Clemens explained. This reduction leads to ripple effects that impact all jobs in the sector — including those held by authorized immigrants and natives alike.
These ripple effects will inevitably affect consumers at grocery stores.
Unauthorized immigrants make up about 40 percent of all crop farmworkers, as per USDA data, with even higher proportions in dairy farming in certain states. Disruptions in farm production “almost necessarily translates into what one sees at the grocery store,” noted J.H. Cullum Clark, director of the George W. Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative.
Similarly, as the population ages, nursing homes and homecare services brace for the potential impact on their workforce. Immigrants account for 27 percent of all health aides, according to estimates from the American Immigration Council, and the demand for such services is expected to accelerate with an aging population.
“The industry is already facing labor shortages,” remarked AIC’s Nancy Wu. “Having some reduction in the supply of labor of skilled workers in that sector will definitely limit the opportunities for patients to get proper care or limit opportunities that patients can get proper care.”
Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News
Various industries, including construction, healthcare, and agriculture, depend heavily on immigrants for their workforce, with immigrants comprising about a quarter to half of certain essential job roles crucial for constructing homes, caring for the elderly, and producing food, according to government data. The Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas report that the influx of immigrants during the Biden administration — with as many as 3.3 million arriving in 2023 alone, including those who entered illegally — has significantly boosted economic output and addressed the urgent need for new workers as the native-born workforce ages.
As Trump is inaugurated as the 47th president, he faces a formidable task: addressing one of the country’s primary concerns — immigration — while avoiding a potential rise in consumer prices, a worry even expressed by some of his supporters.
“The two reasons that Trump won the election” were voter anger over both immigration and inflation, stated former Trump adviser Stephen Moore, who serves as a senior visiting fellow in economics at the Heritage Foundation.
“There is no question that having eight to 10 million people deported — many of whom are working — would put a strain on the economy,” he added. “You could see an inflationary impact to getting rid of some of these workers — for sure.”
Trump has insisted that mass deportation will be a priority from day one, focusing initially on those with criminal records while declaring he has “no choice” but to deport anyone unlawfully residing in the U.S.
The economic consequences of such actions could be vast. Experts warn that grocery prices could rise due to decreased agricultural output, housing construction costs might soar, and staffing shortages in nursing homes and home health services could worsen, further elevating healthcare costs. The overall impact will depend on how many workers are ultimately deported and whether there is a surge in outmigration or a slowdown in the arrival of new working-age migrants.
Although inflation has moderated over the past year, prices remain over 20 percent higher than when President Joe Biden took office.
Unauthorized immigrants constitute a substantial segment of the workforce. Estimates from demographers at the Pew Research Center suggest there are approximately 8.3 million undocumented immigrants employed in the U.S., accounting for around 5 percent of the total labor force, with particularly high representation in construction and agricultural jobs — over 10 percent — and nearly 7 percent among home health aides.
Some of Trump’s allies argue that the fears surrounding the deportation of up to 20 million undocumented immigrants are exaggerated. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump’s transition team, asserted that the "real economic crisis is the $182 billion American tax dollars spent each year to cover the costs of 20 million illegal immigrants that have flooded our communities and replaced American workers."
According to Steven Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies — an anti-immigration think tank cited by Trump’s homeland security adviser Stephen Miller — there is currently no infrastructure to facilitate the immediate deportation of such large numbers. He added that increasing wages for lower-income positions could actually improve labor force participation rates among younger males, which are currently below historical levels.
“They crowd out the native-born,” he stated. “But putting that aside, the worst aspect of immigration is that it lets us say: ‘Who gives a shit? We'll just hire the eager immigrants. And if all these men are on the sidelines in rural America or in cities, what do I care? I got this eager immigrant who's willing to fix my roof or work at McDonald's or babysit my kid — babysitting wouldn't be what men do — or work in construction or be a janitor.’ And I think that’s why it’s so bad.”
Former acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf, who now oversees the homeland security and immigration branch of the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute, pointed out that the U.S. has historically not deported more than 400,000 individuals in a single year. Trump mentioned on NBC’s "Meet the Press" that initial deportations would focus on unauthorized immigrants with criminal records, totaling about 425,000 according to data from DHS, stating “then we’re starting with others and we’re going to see how it goes.”
Wolf remarked, “If there's 16 workplace raids in agriculture over the course of two months, then yeah, let's start talking about how [the economic impact] may be a concern.” He expressed that until there are concrete facts, the fears surrounding economic repercussions are somewhat overblown.
Nonetheless, both economists and business leaders are raising alarms about the insufficient worker supply to offset a sudden drop in the immigrant workforce. Such an economic shock could threaten growth, employment rates, and contribute to inflation.
“The number of employed workers in America would be rapidly shrinking today without immigration,” noted George Mason University professor Michael Clemens, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who studies migration impacts. “All of our jobs depend on the growing economy, and the growing economy can only exist due to immigration.”
The housing sector, specifically, is identified by both Trump and Democratic leaders as a significant area for growth. With rising rents and home prices pushing overall inflation higher, Trump’s designated leader for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Scott Turner, emphasizes the need for “millions of new homes” to alleviate the affordability crisis.
Realizing these plans will require substantial labor. National Association of Home Builders CEO Jim Tobin stated his trust in Trump’s immigration policy, while cautioning that strategies targeting immigrant workers could further weaken the already strained construction labor market.
“Until we train enough domestic workers and track more young people into the skilled trades here in the U.S., we're going to need to go across our borders for immigration,” he asserted, adding that creating more legal pathways for construction workers is preferable. He noted, “The only way to solve the housing shortage is to build ourselves out of it, and putting policies in place that slow that down and make that harder, are at your own political harm or risk.”
Clemens also mentioned research on the effects of the Secure Communities program, which required local law enforcement to submit fingerprints to federal immigration authorities. The findings indicated that crackdowns on undocumented immigration can significantly reduce labor supply and decelerate new home construction.
Previous studies led by University of Colorado Denver Professor Chloe East revealed that the suppression of undocumented workers triggered spillover effects that diminished demand for U.S.-born laborers within local economies.
“Unauthorized workers in America are not just selling labor and competing with other sellers of labor. They are critical ingredients in production, and removal of those ingredients reduces production,” Clemens explained. This reduction leads to ripple effects that impact all jobs in the sector — including those held by authorized immigrants and natives alike.
These ripple effects will inevitably affect consumers at grocery stores.
Unauthorized immigrants make up about 40 percent of all crop farmworkers, as per USDA data, with even higher proportions in dairy farming in certain states. Disruptions in farm production “almost necessarily translates into what one sees at the grocery store,” noted J.H. Cullum Clark, director of the George W. Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative.
Similarly, as the population ages, nursing homes and homecare services brace for the potential impact on their workforce. Immigrants account for 27 percent of all health aides, according to estimates from the American Immigration Council, and the demand for such services is expected to accelerate with an aging population.
“The industry is already facing labor shortages,” remarked AIC’s Nancy Wu. “Having some reduction in the supply of labor of skilled workers in that sector will definitely limit the opportunities for patients to get proper care or limit opportunities that patients can get proper care.”
Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News
