What the electoral map reveals about Kamala Harris' defeat
The map resembles more closely the layout from 2016 rather than that of 2020.
North Carolina once again turned out to be an illusion of opportunity. Georgia reverted to Republican control, with the Atlanta suburbs failing to provide sufficient support for Harris. With more than half the votes counted, Nevada and Arizona were also swinging toward Trump.
The electoral landscape mirrored 2016 more than 2020, with unexpectedly tight races in Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia, while a wide expanse of red stretched from North Carolina to El Paso. The once-solid Blue Wall crumbled, showing losses in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Harris did not perform as well as President Joe Biden did in 2020 among rural Black voters in southern Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and south Georgia. Her performance in suburban areas remained flat or even declined slightly in various metropolitan regions. Even traditionally liberal college counties appeared to underperform for the Democratic ticket by a point or two. In contrast, Trump improved his rural support almost universally, gaining traction in exurban areas and particularly in border counties.
Virginia exemplified the challenges facing Democrats on election night. The state wasn't called until 11:42 PM, four hours later than in 2020, due to tighter-than-expected results. This was attributable to reduced Democratic margins among voters of color, alongside Harris's inability to match Biden's impressive performance in the suburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia, which were expected to heavily favor Democrats. She secured victories there, just not by the same margins as Biden in 2020.
Florida's results, which shifted even further right, were especially telling. While few expected Harris to win the state, the 13-point, 1.4 million vote GOP advantage was surprising. Trump successfully flipped Pinellas County in St. Petersburg and Duval County in Jacksonville, which he had lost to Biden four years earlier—indicating that Democratic setbacks were driven in part by discontent with the current administration.
The state also highlighted the emerging Latino realignment. In Orange County and neighboring Osceola County, both with substantial Puerto Rican populations, Harris lagged behind Biden's 2020 performance. Trump even managed to win Osceola, underscoring the limited impact of his "island of garbage" controversy from his Madison Square Garden rally on local voting.
In Miami-Dade County, which has a significant Cuban American population, Trump achieved a remarkable victory. Just eight years prior, he had lost the county to Hillary Clinton by a wide margin of 66-34. This time, he flipped it, winning by 10 points.
This trend extended beyond Florida. Trump performed better in some New Mexico border counties compared to 2020 and demonstrated signs of his Latino outreach resonating in eastern Pennsylvania. In Starr County, Texas—97 percent Latino—Trump faced a crushing defeat in 2016 with a 79-19 loss. Four years later, he made that region competitive. In the current election, he secured a decisive 58-42 victory.
Allen M Lee contributed to this report for TROIB News