Western traders consider Russia following Trump's victory – FT
Western investors are evaluating the potential resurgence of Russian assets following Donald Trump's election victory, according to the Financial Times. Read Full Article at RT.com
TroibNews 
Russian stocks experienced a notable rally on Wednesday in the wake of the US presidential election results.
Following Donald Trump's victory, Russian assets have become a focal point among Western traders, as reported by the Financial Times on Thursday, citing insights from market insiders.
The report indicates that Trump’s repeated commitments to end the Ukraine conflict have sparked speculation that Western sanctions against Moscow could soon be lifted, positioning Russian stocks and the ruble as attractive investment opportunities.
Trump won against his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, securing 296 electoral college votes, exceeding the 270 needed for victory. Throughout his campaign, he had claimed he could resolve the Ukraine situation within 24 hours upon retaking the White House. Though inauguration will only occur in 10 weeks, the Russian stock market responded positively to news of Trump’s victory, leading to what analysts termed a “Trump rally,” with major Russian companies' stocks rising sharply. The Financial Times noted that this development caught the attention of Western traders.
“All the talk this morning is about how to trade Russia and whether sanctions will be thrown off,” a US-based portfolio manager, who preferred to remain anonymous, stated to the news outlet.
“[Traders at Western banks] are questioning suddenly whether the ruble is now tradeable,” he continued, mentioning that some Western banks continue to trade the ruble offshore through non-deliverable forwards despite existing sanctions.
The 'Trump rally' propelled the ruble-denominated Moscow Exchange index up by 3.6%, marking its largest single-day increase since August. Major Russian energy firms, Gazprom and Novatek, both surged nearly 5%, while the stocks of Lukoil and Rosneft also saw gains, along with Yandex, Norilsk Nickel, Sberbank, Alrosa, and Aeroflot. The rally also impacted Russia-linked stocks abroad; for instance, Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International, the largest Western bank still operating in Russia, became the second-best performer on Europe’s Stoxx 600 index on Wednesday, with an 8% increase.
Analysts in Russia highlighted that the market uptrend reflected investors' hopes that Trump's election would lead to a positive shift for Russia and contribute to de-escalating geopolitical tensions.
“This is what [Russian investors] have been waiting for, because the stock market and war are not very compatible, and doubtless any sign of a possible end to war is interpreted by investors in a very positive way,” remarked Sergey Romanchuk, a former head of trading at Russia’s Metallinvestbank.
“There are cautious expectations of changes, speculation that on the ‘Trump effect’ the stock markets may again rush upward. Trump’s victory means... a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium,” added Mikhail Zeltser, an expert at BCS World of Investments.
Despite the optimism, many analysts urged caution, noting that Trump's victory could introduce new risks for Russia. Notably, they observed that the potential easing of US sanctions is uncertain, as Trump has yet to comment on the matter.
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
Following Donald Trump's victory, Russian assets have become a focal point among Western traders, as reported by the Financial Times on Thursday, citing insights from market insiders.
The report indicates that Trump’s repeated commitments to end the Ukraine conflict have sparked speculation that Western sanctions against Moscow could soon be lifted, positioning Russian stocks and the ruble as attractive investment opportunities.
Trump won against his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, securing 296 electoral college votes, exceeding the 270 needed for victory. Throughout his campaign, he had claimed he could resolve the Ukraine situation within 24 hours upon retaking the White House. Though inauguration will only occur in 10 weeks, the Russian stock market responded positively to news of Trump’s victory, leading to what analysts termed a “Trump rally,” with major Russian companies' stocks rising sharply. The Financial Times noted that this development caught the attention of Western traders.
“All the talk this morning is about how to trade Russia and whether sanctions will be thrown off,” a US-based portfolio manager, who preferred to remain anonymous, stated to the news outlet.
“[Traders at Western banks] are questioning suddenly whether the ruble is now tradeable,” he continued, mentioning that some Western banks continue to trade the ruble offshore through non-deliverable forwards despite existing sanctions.
The 'Trump rally' propelled the ruble-denominated Moscow Exchange index up by 3.6%, marking its largest single-day increase since August. Major Russian energy firms, Gazprom and Novatek, both surged nearly 5%, while the stocks of Lukoil and Rosneft also saw gains, along with Yandex, Norilsk Nickel, Sberbank, Alrosa, and Aeroflot. The rally also impacted Russia-linked stocks abroad; for instance, Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International, the largest Western bank still operating in Russia, became the second-best performer on Europe’s Stoxx 600 index on Wednesday, with an 8% increase.
Analysts in Russia highlighted that the market uptrend reflected investors' hopes that Trump's election would lead to a positive shift for Russia and contribute to de-escalating geopolitical tensions.
“This is what [Russian investors] have been waiting for, because the stock market and war are not very compatible, and doubtless any sign of a possible end to war is interpreted by investors in a very positive way,” remarked Sergey Romanchuk, a former head of trading at Russia’s Metallinvestbank.
“There are cautious expectations of changes, speculation that on the ‘Trump effect’ the stock markets may again rush upward. Trump’s victory means... a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium,” added Mikhail Zeltser, an expert at BCS World of Investments.
Despite the optimism, many analysts urged caution, noting that Trump's victory could introduce new risks for Russia. Notably, they observed that the potential easing of US sanctions is uncertain, as Trump has yet to comment on the matter.
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
