‘Ticking time bomb’: US officials express concerns over potential ISIS jailbreak in Syria
Kurdish forces, who are lightly armed, are currently overseeing over 9,000 Islamic State terrorists in Syria.
TroibNews 
American officials are urgently working to prevent a potentially disastrous scenario in Syria: a major terrorist jailbreak.
Thousands of fighters affiliated with the Islamic State group, along with their families, are currently held in makeshift prisons under the oversight of U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, who are limited in their capabilities. Although these facilities were intended to be temporary, many of the fighters' home countries are unwilling to accept their repatriation.
The situation has escalated in intensity following the recent uncertainty in Syria after Syrian President Bashar Assad's downfall. The potential resurgence of ISIS may now depend on whether the United States and a diminishing number of allies can thwart the escape of these detainees.
“I usually hate this cliche, but this is the closest thing we have to a ticking time bomb,” remarked a senior U.S. counterterrorism official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters. “If Turkey doesn’t get these attacks on the [Syrian Democratic Forces] halted, we could have a massive jailbreak on our hands.”
The evolving situation in Syria unfolds at a critical time for the region and the U.S., as a new administration prepares to take charge with a promise of reduced foreign assistance.
“This is essentially a terrorist army in detention,” commented Joseph Votel, a retired general who commanded U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019 during the campaign against ISIS. “I am very concerned.”
While most of the detained ISIS fighters originate from Iraq or Syria, a significant number come from Europe, Central Asia, and North America, including the United States. Delays from various countries in accepting the return of these prisoners have resulted in a yearslong legal limbo for around 9,000 seasoned fighters and approximately 50,000 others, including spouses and children.
The Kurdish groups, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have been steadfast allies of the United States in its battle against ISIS in Syria. However, Turkey, a crucial NATO partner, perceives these Kurdish groups as a serious security threat and has backed proxy forces in Syria that have launched numerous high-profile attacks against the SDF since Assad’s recent power loss.
The mounting tensions have added pressure on Kurdish forces, who are engaged in combat against Turkish-backed militias and active ISIS cells.
Amid the turmoil, a potential agreement is in sight. The SDF aims to prolong a recent cease-fire with pro-Turkish factions regarding the northeastern city of Manbij. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made a visit to Ankara, Turkey, to discuss the U.S.-mediated cease-fire.
“We continue to engage with the SDF, with Turkey about a path forward,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. “We don't want to see any party take advantage of the current unstable situation to advance their own narrow interests at the expense of the broader Syrian national interest.”
On Tuesday, SDF chief Mazloum Abdi expressed on X that his group intends to maintain dialogue, broaden the cease-fire, and establish a demilitarized zone under U.S. oversight and presence.
Approximately 900 U.S. troops are currently stationed in Syria to train SDF personnel. Pentagon officials have indicated that there are no plans to increase the troop presence or alter the current mission. With the impending change in administration, the U.S. may be reluctant to lead the response to the escalating crisis in Syria, especially following President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration next month.
“We have a tendency to see all counterterrorism wars as never-ending,” stated Jim Jeffrey, the special representative for Syria during the first Trump administration. “Trust me, Trump doesn't see it that way.”
Jeffrey believes that the Kurdish forces can maintain control over the Syrian prisons regardless of U.S. troop levels in the region, noting that the Kurds are open to collaborating with Turkish-backed forces in northern Syria and have reached out to the new Sunni-dominated administration in Damascus.
While the current government in Damascus consists of a diverse coalition of Islamist factions that are cooperating for now, it remains adversarial to the Islamic State.
Not everyone shares the same perspective. Allies of President Joe Biden on Capitol Hill have criticized Ankara for failing to stop its proxies from attacking the SDF, complicating the administration's approach.
“If we want to make sure that those camps are properly guarded, we the United States need to provide the Syrian Kurds with assurances that we will prevent Turkey from attacking them,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who is part of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, remarked in an interview. “When Turkey supports the Syrian National Army's attacks against the Kurds, the big winner is ISIS.”
If the prison camp infrastructure collapses, U.S. forces in Syria could find themselves facing a new threat.
“This is something that can unravel fast,” warned Caroline Rose, a Syria expert at the New Lines Institute, a foreign policy think tank. “The potential risks are not only to our partners, but also the U.S. soldiers that are on the ground carrying out this advise-and-assist mission.”
In recent days, the U.S. has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting ISIS leadership positions. Central Command chief Gen. Erik Kurilla visited U.S. troops in Syria and met with SDF fighters before heading to Baghdad for discussions with Iraqi officials.
"There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria," Kurilla asserted in a statement. "All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way."
Eric Bazail-Eimil contributed to this report.
Sanya Singh contributed to this report for TROIB News
Thousands of fighters affiliated with the Islamic State group, along with their families, are currently held in makeshift prisons under the oversight of U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, who are limited in their capabilities. Although these facilities were intended to be temporary, many of the fighters' home countries are unwilling to accept their repatriation.
The situation has escalated in intensity following the recent uncertainty in Syria after Syrian President Bashar Assad's downfall. The potential resurgence of ISIS may now depend on whether the United States and a diminishing number of allies can thwart the escape of these detainees.
“I usually hate this cliche, but this is the closest thing we have to a ticking time bomb,” remarked a senior U.S. counterterrorism official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters. “If Turkey doesn’t get these attacks on the [Syrian Democratic Forces] halted, we could have a massive jailbreak on our hands.”
The evolving situation in Syria unfolds at a critical time for the region and the U.S., as a new administration prepares to take charge with a promise of reduced foreign assistance.
“This is essentially a terrorist army in detention,” commented Joseph Votel, a retired general who commanded U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019 during the campaign against ISIS. “I am very concerned.”
While most of the detained ISIS fighters originate from Iraq or Syria, a significant number come from Europe, Central Asia, and North America, including the United States. Delays from various countries in accepting the return of these prisoners have resulted in a yearslong legal limbo for around 9,000 seasoned fighters and approximately 50,000 others, including spouses and children.
The Kurdish groups, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have been steadfast allies of the United States in its battle against ISIS in Syria. However, Turkey, a crucial NATO partner, perceives these Kurdish groups as a serious security threat and has backed proxy forces in Syria that have launched numerous high-profile attacks against the SDF since Assad’s recent power loss.
The mounting tensions have added pressure on Kurdish forces, who are engaged in combat against Turkish-backed militias and active ISIS cells.
Amid the turmoil, a potential agreement is in sight. The SDF aims to prolong a recent cease-fire with pro-Turkish factions regarding the northeastern city of Manbij. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made a visit to Ankara, Turkey, to discuss the U.S.-mediated cease-fire.
“We continue to engage with the SDF, with Turkey about a path forward,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. “We don't want to see any party take advantage of the current unstable situation to advance their own narrow interests at the expense of the broader Syrian national interest.”
On Tuesday, SDF chief Mazloum Abdi expressed on X that his group intends to maintain dialogue, broaden the cease-fire, and establish a demilitarized zone under U.S. oversight and presence.
Approximately 900 U.S. troops are currently stationed in Syria to train SDF personnel. Pentagon officials have indicated that there are no plans to increase the troop presence or alter the current mission. With the impending change in administration, the U.S. may be reluctant to lead the response to the escalating crisis in Syria, especially following President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration next month.
“We have a tendency to see all counterterrorism wars as never-ending,” stated Jim Jeffrey, the special representative for Syria during the first Trump administration. “Trust me, Trump doesn't see it that way.”
Jeffrey believes that the Kurdish forces can maintain control over the Syrian prisons regardless of U.S. troop levels in the region, noting that the Kurds are open to collaborating with Turkish-backed forces in northern Syria and have reached out to the new Sunni-dominated administration in Damascus.
While the current government in Damascus consists of a diverse coalition of Islamist factions that are cooperating for now, it remains adversarial to the Islamic State.
Not everyone shares the same perspective. Allies of President Joe Biden on Capitol Hill have criticized Ankara for failing to stop its proxies from attacking the SDF, complicating the administration's approach.
“If we want to make sure that those camps are properly guarded, we the United States need to provide the Syrian Kurds with assurances that we will prevent Turkey from attacking them,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who is part of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, remarked in an interview. “When Turkey supports the Syrian National Army's attacks against the Kurds, the big winner is ISIS.”
If the prison camp infrastructure collapses, U.S. forces in Syria could find themselves facing a new threat.
“This is something that can unravel fast,” warned Caroline Rose, a Syria expert at the New Lines Institute, a foreign policy think tank. “The potential risks are not only to our partners, but also the U.S. soldiers that are on the ground carrying out this advise-and-assist mission.”
In recent days, the U.S. has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting ISIS leadership positions. Central Command chief Gen. Erik Kurilla visited U.S. troops in Syria and met with SDF fighters before heading to Baghdad for discussions with Iraqi officials.
"There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria," Kurilla asserted in a statement. "All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way."
Eric Bazail-Eimil contributed to this report.
Sanya Singh contributed to this report for TROIB News
