The region known for its million-dollar starter homes may determine Congress's future
A POLITICO analysis of Zillow data reveals that key battleground districts have been severely impacted by California's housing affordability crisis.
TroibNews 
**LOS ANGELES** — Two years ago, Democrat Will Rollins sought to unseat veteran California GOP Rep. Ken Calvert, running a campaign focused on abortion rights and the Jan. 6 riot. However, he didn't address the soaring housing costs in the Inland Empire district, a choice he now regrets.
“I always wake up, having lost that election, wondering, ‘What if we had spent more time talking about cost of living and housing?’” he told PMG.
In his rematch against Calvert, Rollins is making housing a key issue, aligning with other candidates in the most competitive California House races. These races could play a pivotal role in determining which party takes the majority as districts grapple with the state's housing crisis, according to a PMG analysis.
Once viewed as a local dilemma, housing has gained significant traction in federal politics this year, especially in the presidential race. Democrats, guided by Vice President Kamala Harris, believe that acknowledging voters' housing struggles can counter the GOP's advantage on inflation and other economic issues. California, known for its exorbitant property prices, finds the battle for House control being fought in districts heavily affected by dramatic increases in housing costs.
“The federal government has historically not been super involved in legislating in that arena because of the way that our system works,” said Jae Garner, a housing activist in Orange County, where two of the state's most competitive House races are located. Garner observed that “there’s this threshold that we’ve hit … All the voters at every level are saying, ‘What are you going to do to lower my housing prices?’”
In California’s six most competitive House districts, the median mortgage payment for new homes has surged between 79 and 104 percent since early 2019, outpacing the statewide increase of 68 percent, as reported by Zillow. The median rent in those areas has also climbed by up to $850 from 2019 to 2024.
These numbers illustrate the discussions politicians are having with their constituents, according to Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County.
“You can see it when you listen to voters and you say, ‘I want my kids to be able to afford to live in California. I love my children, but I do not want a 32-year-old on my couch.’ You get a lot of nods. People get that. That is a very real concern,” said Porter, who chose not to seek reelection in favor of a Senate run, leaving a contentious battle for her swing seat.
Despite the issue resonating with voters, both parties agree that neither has a definitive lead on housing — a unique situation where economic concerns usually favor the GOP.
In this uncertain landscape, where voters demand action on housing but lack strong partisan preferences, Rollins sees an opportunity.
“We've actually seen that in our own polling, we are achieving parity on ‘Who do you trust more to lower the cost of living?’ And it can be hard for Democrats to reach parity,” Rollins noted. “But I think this campaign proves that if you go on offense about it, you keep focusing on kitchen table issues and costs, in particular when we're talking about costs for us on housing, we really can move the needle.”
According to Zillow data, the median mortgage payment for new homes in the district is up 90 percent since 2019, while median rents have increased nearly 40 percent.
Zillow calculates median mortgage payments based on a hypothetical 20 percent down payment on homes at the median Zestimate price, which reflects home values. These calculations consider principal and interest but exclude taxes and insurance. The recent spike in interest rates has significantly impacted these costs.
Rollins' campaign features specific policy proposals aimed at addressing housing affordability, such as cracking down on corporations purchasing housing stock and implementing a tax credit for first-time homebuyers. He and his allies have criticized Calvert for directing federal funding to projects near his rental properties, claiming the Republican benefitted from rising property values amid soaring regional housing prices.
Calvert has countered with his own housing-related messaging. One advertisement presents Rollins as an extension of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, cautioning voters that “just like Newsom, Will Rollins means higher gas, property and income taxes.”
The Calvert campaign has intentionally linked Rollins to Newsom to suggest that Democrats, who dominate California’s government, are responsible for the state’s high housing costs.
“California has become one of the most expensive places to live in the nation because of the failed policies from Gavin Newsom and Sacramento Democrats that Will Rollins would rubber stamp in Washington, D.C.,” Calvert stated.
Calvert is among Republicans leveraging housing-focused advertisements funded by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a prominent GOP super PAC. These ads play on California's longstanding political concerns, particularly the prospect of rolling back Proposition 13, the 1978 measure limiting property tax reassessments.
“Rollins is endorsed by a group pushing to gut Prop 13. Rollins and his cronies could force people out of their homes,” one advertisement warns, featuring side-by-side images of Rollins and Newsom.
Though it’s a familiar strategy, Republicans believe this message remains impactful, especially following a failed ballot measure four years ago aimed at changing property protections, which was particularly unpopular in swing areas.
Democrats are emphasizing housing supply, echoing Harris’ commitment to building 3 million new housing units along with providing down payment assistance.
Kipp Mueller, a Democrat campaigning for a competitive state Senate seat overlapping with a toss-up House race in northern Los Angeles County, remarked that the need for new housing has become so pressing that voters expect action from candidates at all governmental levels.
“It looks to me like the campaigns at the top are adapting to the times and are listening,” Mueller commented. “I don't know that I've ever heard it really before from a presidential campaign until Kamala’s and I welcome it.”
Even in the Central Valley, known for its agriculture and typically lacking the high-price real estate of coastal areas, Democrats are targeting incumbent GOP Rep. David Valadao for insufficient action on housing supply.
“What has 10 years of David Valadao’s votes in Congress gotten us? Unaffordable rent. Sky-high housing costs. And buying a house? Forget about it,” an ad by House Majority Forward, aligned with Democratic leadership, states. “Valadao voted against building more houses we can afford and against rental assistance for struggling Valley families.”
This message, delivered in both English and Spanish in a majority-Latino area, is particularly effective in Valadao’s district, which has seen a staggering 64 percent increase in median rent over the past five years — the highest in California, according to Zillow. The district also ranks second in the state for the largest increase in monthly mortgage payments for new homebuyers, with costs more than doubling from January 2019 to September 2024.
Valadao and his Republican allies have largely focused their advertisements on attacking Salas over taxes and his state legislative record, with less emphasis on housing issues.
Despite the heightened discussion around housing, there is skepticism among Valadao’s supporters regarding its potential impact for Democrats. While public polling indicates a competitive race, Republicans feel more optimistic about Valadao’s prospects compared to other GOP incumbents, even with Democrats holding a significant voter registration advantage.
“I refuse to believe that voters, Spanish-speaking or otherwise, will make the leap of blaming Congress for California’s unaffordable housing market,” argued Tal Eslick, an independent political consultant with past experience on Valadao’s team. “Voters should direct frustration towards their affluent neighbors who resist density and those who wield environmental laws to halt development. Outside groups of all stripes routinely miss the mark trying to talk to voters in the San Joaquin Valley.”
Regardless of how these contests unfold, this election cycle signifies a turning point for housing politics and may foreshadow the significant role the issue will play in future campaigns.
“We now have people really recognizing this as an issue, taking the right position on it, which is, we need to bring down housing costs,” concluded Porter, widely viewed as a potential candidate for California governor in the next election cycle. “In 2026, you're going to see — both at the state and federal level — those policies being rolled out.”
Alejandro Jose Martinez contributed to this report for TROIB News
“I always wake up, having lost that election, wondering, ‘What if we had spent more time talking about cost of living and housing?’” he told PMG.
In his rematch against Calvert, Rollins is making housing a key issue, aligning with other candidates in the most competitive California House races. These races could play a pivotal role in determining which party takes the majority as districts grapple with the state's housing crisis, according to a PMG analysis.
Once viewed as a local dilemma, housing has gained significant traction in federal politics this year, especially in the presidential race. Democrats, guided by Vice President Kamala Harris, believe that acknowledging voters' housing struggles can counter the GOP's advantage on inflation and other economic issues. California, known for its exorbitant property prices, finds the battle for House control being fought in districts heavily affected by dramatic increases in housing costs.
“The federal government has historically not been super involved in legislating in that arena because of the way that our system works,” said Jae Garner, a housing activist in Orange County, where two of the state's most competitive House races are located. Garner observed that “there’s this threshold that we’ve hit … All the voters at every level are saying, ‘What are you going to do to lower my housing prices?’”
In California’s six most competitive House districts, the median mortgage payment for new homes has surged between 79 and 104 percent since early 2019, outpacing the statewide increase of 68 percent, as reported by Zillow. The median rent in those areas has also climbed by up to $850 from 2019 to 2024.
These numbers illustrate the discussions politicians are having with their constituents, according to Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County.
“You can see it when you listen to voters and you say, ‘I want my kids to be able to afford to live in California. I love my children, but I do not want a 32-year-old on my couch.’ You get a lot of nods. People get that. That is a very real concern,” said Porter, who chose not to seek reelection in favor of a Senate run, leaving a contentious battle for her swing seat.
Despite the issue resonating with voters, both parties agree that neither has a definitive lead on housing — a unique situation where economic concerns usually favor the GOP.
In this uncertain landscape, where voters demand action on housing but lack strong partisan preferences, Rollins sees an opportunity.
“We've actually seen that in our own polling, we are achieving parity on ‘Who do you trust more to lower the cost of living?’ And it can be hard for Democrats to reach parity,” Rollins noted. “But I think this campaign proves that if you go on offense about it, you keep focusing on kitchen table issues and costs, in particular when we're talking about costs for us on housing, we really can move the needle.”
According to Zillow data, the median mortgage payment for new homes in the district is up 90 percent since 2019, while median rents have increased nearly 40 percent.
Zillow calculates median mortgage payments based on a hypothetical 20 percent down payment on homes at the median Zestimate price, which reflects home values. These calculations consider principal and interest but exclude taxes and insurance. The recent spike in interest rates has significantly impacted these costs.
Rollins' campaign features specific policy proposals aimed at addressing housing affordability, such as cracking down on corporations purchasing housing stock and implementing a tax credit for first-time homebuyers. He and his allies have criticized Calvert for directing federal funding to projects near his rental properties, claiming the Republican benefitted from rising property values amid soaring regional housing prices.
Calvert has countered with his own housing-related messaging. One advertisement presents Rollins as an extension of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, cautioning voters that “just like Newsom, Will Rollins means higher gas, property and income taxes.”
The Calvert campaign has intentionally linked Rollins to Newsom to suggest that Democrats, who dominate California’s government, are responsible for the state’s high housing costs.
“California has become one of the most expensive places to live in the nation because of the failed policies from Gavin Newsom and Sacramento Democrats that Will Rollins would rubber stamp in Washington, D.C.,” Calvert stated.
Calvert is among Republicans leveraging housing-focused advertisements funded by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a prominent GOP super PAC. These ads play on California's longstanding political concerns, particularly the prospect of rolling back Proposition 13, the 1978 measure limiting property tax reassessments.
“Rollins is endorsed by a group pushing to gut Prop 13. Rollins and his cronies could force people out of their homes,” one advertisement warns, featuring side-by-side images of Rollins and Newsom.
Though it’s a familiar strategy, Republicans believe this message remains impactful, especially following a failed ballot measure four years ago aimed at changing property protections, which was particularly unpopular in swing areas.
Democrats are emphasizing housing supply, echoing Harris’ commitment to building 3 million new housing units along with providing down payment assistance.
Kipp Mueller, a Democrat campaigning for a competitive state Senate seat overlapping with a toss-up House race in northern Los Angeles County, remarked that the need for new housing has become so pressing that voters expect action from candidates at all governmental levels.
“It looks to me like the campaigns at the top are adapting to the times and are listening,” Mueller commented. “I don't know that I've ever heard it really before from a presidential campaign until Kamala’s and I welcome it.”
Even in the Central Valley, known for its agriculture and typically lacking the high-price real estate of coastal areas, Democrats are targeting incumbent GOP Rep. David Valadao for insufficient action on housing supply.
“What has 10 years of David Valadao’s votes in Congress gotten us? Unaffordable rent. Sky-high housing costs. And buying a house? Forget about it,” an ad by House Majority Forward, aligned with Democratic leadership, states. “Valadao voted against building more houses we can afford and against rental assistance for struggling Valley families.”
This message, delivered in both English and Spanish in a majority-Latino area, is particularly effective in Valadao’s district, which has seen a staggering 64 percent increase in median rent over the past five years — the highest in California, according to Zillow. The district also ranks second in the state for the largest increase in monthly mortgage payments for new homebuyers, with costs more than doubling from January 2019 to September 2024.
Valadao and his Republican allies have largely focused their advertisements on attacking Salas over taxes and his state legislative record, with less emphasis on housing issues.
Despite the heightened discussion around housing, there is skepticism among Valadao’s supporters regarding its potential impact for Democrats. While public polling indicates a competitive race, Republicans feel more optimistic about Valadao’s prospects compared to other GOP incumbents, even with Democrats holding a significant voter registration advantage.
“I refuse to believe that voters, Spanish-speaking or otherwise, will make the leap of blaming Congress for California’s unaffordable housing market,” argued Tal Eslick, an independent political consultant with past experience on Valadao’s team. “Voters should direct frustration towards their affluent neighbors who resist density and those who wield environmental laws to halt development. Outside groups of all stripes routinely miss the mark trying to talk to voters in the San Joaquin Valley.”
Regardless of how these contests unfold, this election cycle signifies a turning point for housing politics and may foreshadow the significant role the issue will play in future campaigns.
“We now have people really recognizing this as an issue, taking the right position on it, which is, we need to bring down housing costs,” concluded Porter, widely viewed as a potential candidate for California governor in the next election cycle. “In 2026, you're going to see — both at the state and federal level — those policies being rolled out.”
Alejandro Jose Martinez contributed to this report for TROIB News
