The competition to succeed Trudeau intensifies while Trump poses a threat to Canada's economy
Front-runner Mark Carney asserts that what Canadians urgently require at this moment is a crisis manager.
“To get through it, we have to rebuild our economy, and that requires big changes,” Carney remarked on Tuesday night, referring to his experience as the Bank of Canada governor during the 2008 financial crisis. “I know how to manage a crisis. I know how to build strong economies.”
Current polls indicate that Carney commands a significant lead in the contest to succeed Justin Trudeau as head of the Liberal Party, a victory that would likely elevate him to the role of prime minister — if only temporarily.
One of Carney’s initial decisions may involve whether to call a snap election amid an ongoing tariff conflict, potentially catching rival parties off guard before they can challenge the minority government.
The implications for Canada are considerable, especially given Trump’s unpredictable nature.
On Tuesday, Andrew Furey, the premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, expressed his thoughts on the political landscape as he announced his unexpected resignation from office.
“I mean it’s clear, right? The guy’s cracked,” Furey stated to reporters. “He wakes up one morning and says something — water, cars. Tomorrow it’s going to be tuna, who knows?"
For the Conservative Party of Canada, Carney's emergence as a leading candidate appears likely.
Headed by anti-Trudeau advocate Pierre Poilievre, the opposition party has seen a once-massive polling advantage shrink considerably since early 2025. Voters may be influenced by several factors, including Trudeau's decision to step back, the contest to find his successor, and a surge of patriotism spurred by Trump’s tariff threats and aggressive statements toward Canada.
Poilievre’s campaign has ramped up its negative advertising efforts. At a recent rally in Ottawa, he referenced Carney nearly two dozen times. The party has also circulated emails aimed at branding their opponent as "Carbon Tax Carney."
This is just a glimpse of the forthcoming campaign.
During Tuesday night’s English debate, Carney faced some criticisms, but they are expected to be mild compared to what he might encounter from Poilievre.
Carney’s campaign centers on economic growth — a core issue for the suburban middle class that plays a vital role when Canadians cast their votes.
Nonetheless, he is not the only contender trying to resonate with voters concerned about inflation amidst fears of an impending downturn.
Not to be overlooked, Karina Gould, a three-term MP and Cabinet minister, is positioning herself as a representative of middle-class values, claiming her experiences as a millennial mom of two give her insight into tackling the affordability and housing predicaments facing Canadians.
Most polling data has placed her third in the race, trailing Carney and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, yet ahead of entrepreneur and ex-MP Frank Baylis.
Gould made history in 2017 by becoming the youngest Cabinet minister ever appointed when she took on the role of minister of democratic institutions. Her later agreement on child care with provinces greatly reduced fees, leading to her promotion as government House leader, where she adeptly managed a divided Parliament.
While she enjoys popularity among younger Liberals, distinguishing herself with older voters will be crucial if she aims to increase her chances in the race.
As candidates generally showed unity on stage on Tuesday evening, Gould made her presence felt by directly challenging her opponents.
When Carney touched on Canada's housing situation, Gould retorted: “I’m glad to hear my colleague talk about housing. This is one of the first times I’ve ever heard him talk about it.”
After the debate, Gould remarked to reporters that she was "wearing kid gloves" in what she described as a friendly setting. She asserted, "This is just a test run for the real debate that's going to come in the election."
Freeland’s unexpected resignation in December has set the stage for the contest to replace Trudeau.
As a key negotiator during the NAFTA renegotiations under Trump’s first administration, Freeland has been vocal about her commitment to challenge the former president, invoking his name frequently throughout her campaign.
She pledged to implement retaliatory measures against the U.S., including tariffs totaling C$200 billion on specific products.
“We are going to have targeted retaliation that exerts maximum pain in the U.S. and does minimum harm to us. We are going to hit Trump’s best friends. I’m going to put 100 percent tariffs on Tesla. I’m going to hit Wisconsin dairy. I’m going to hit Florida oranges,” Freeland stated on Tuesday.
Throughout the Liberal leadership contest, candidates have generally refrained from attacking each other, seemingly to project a united front to the electorate.
However, in Tuesday's debate, Gould took the opportunity to throw barbs at Carney, criticizing his lack of political experience and questioning his readiness.
In discussing Canada-U.S. relations, she delivered a sharp retort to Carney's economic credentials: “You can’t bring a calculator to a knife fight."
Ian Smith for TROIB News