Sowing Turmoil: The Future of the Middle East Following a Turbulent Year
Over the past year, the region has witnessed ongoing escalation, reaching critical levels in multiple areas. Is additional turmoil on the horizon? Read Full Article at RT.com
TroibNews 
Escalation has been ongoing in the region over the past year, reaching critical points in various locations. Is more turmoil on the horizon?
The year 2024 has witnessed a notable increase in armed conflicts across the Middle East. In addition to ongoing bombardments of Gaza, Israel has intensified its military operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, whose forces have fired hundreds of rockets into Israeli territory. For the first time in two decades, Israel has also confronted Iran directly.
Following Hamas’ attacks on October 7, 2023, Israel initiated a ground and air offensive on Gaza that remains in effect. The Gaza Strip continues to be under blockade, leading to an acute humanitarian crisis. Gaza’s Ministry of Health reports that more than 45,000 individuals have died since the conflict’s inception. The blockade and relentless bombings have transformed daily life for Gaza’s 2.1 million residents into a disaster, stripping them of shelter and escape routes.
In May, Israel executed a significant operation in Rafah, southern Gaza, taking control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a 14 km buffer zone along the Egypt border. This operation forced hundreds of thousands of residents to flee, seeking safety in schools, hospitals, and refugee camps, many of which have also been hit by Israeli airstrikes. Acute shortages of food, water, and medical supplies have triggered hunger and a resurgence of diseases, such as polio.
The situation in Lebanon has also sharply worsened. In late September, Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah. Over eight weeks, Israeli airstrikes and drones targeted militant positions in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and even Beirut. The September 27 death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike was followed by escalated clashes, displacing approximately 1.2 million individuals, over 20% of Lebanon’s population.
Tensions between Israel and Iran escalated significantly in 2024, with Israel carrying out significant strikes on Iranian military locations. In April, a commander of the Quds Force was killed, and in October, Israel targeted around 20 sites in Iran, including air-defense systems and facilities related to its nuclear program. Iran retaliated with missile strikes, some of which were intercepted by Israeli defenses bolstered by support from the US, UK, and Jordan. However, several missiles did hit their intended targets, marking one of the most severe escalations in recent years.
Amid these developments, the domestic situation in Israel around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains fraught. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, charging him with war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Nevertheless, his popularity in Israel has surged due to military successes against Lebanon and Iran. Internationally, Netanyahu has gained substantial support following Donald Trump’s re-election as US president. With unwavering backing from Washington, Netanyahu is emboldened to pursue plans to expand West Bank settlements and escalate confrontations with Iran and its allies.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza has deteriorated to catastrophic levels, with food and medical supplies rapidly running out and water distribution reduced to an absolute minimum. Addressing the repercussions of hunger and disease outbreaks has become increasingly difficult amidst the ongoing conflict. International humanitarian organizations, including UNRWA and the Red Cross, have been largely unable to access most areas due to the high risk of attacks.
The conflict along the Lebanese-Israeli border has inflicted severe damage on regional infrastructure. Bombings have disrupted power and water supplies, worsening living conditions for civilians. Lebanese authorities have called for international intervention, but the influence of external actors such as the US and France remains limited.
Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian military installations have escalated the risk of a nuclear confrontation. Analysts caution that Tehran may accelerate its nuclear program as a deterrent. Meanwhile, Israel threatens further military action, exacerbating tensions in the region. Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye have engaged in mediation efforts to prevent further escalation, but major global powers' positions, including those of the US, Russia, and China, remain contradictory. Their involvement has largely been limited to political statements and military support for their respective allies.
The year 2024 was a turning point for Syria, as the long-standing Assad regime faced a decisive collapse. In early December, armed groups led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, with Türkiye’s backing, captured Damascus, ending the Assad dynasty’s rule.
The regime’s downfall stemmed from a swift offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which took key cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Homs within ten days, aided by weakened support from Assad's key allies—Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran—who were embroiled in their own crises throughout 2024. The fragmentation of the Syrian army and a lack of coordinated defense strategies were significant factors in the regime’s defeat.
After Damascus fell, Bashar Assad fled to Moscow with his family, leaving the country in chaos. This marked the conclusion of a civil war that began in 2011 and had claimed at least 300,000 lives, with another 100,000 unaccounted for, according to UN estimates.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, also known as Ahmad al-Sharaa, has emerged as Syria’s new de facto leader. Formerly the head of Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, he severed ties with the organization in 2016 to lead HTS, which has grown to dominate Idlib province. Al-Golani has vowed to respect the rights of various religious communities, including minorities.
Despite HTS being classified as a terrorist organization by the US, 2024 saw an international dialogue initiated with its representatives. In December, UN, US, and European diplomats engaged with HTS delegates in Damascus to discuss a peaceful power transition and organizing free elections within three months. The US even rescinded its $10 million bounty on al-Golani, signaling a shift in its approach to Syria’s evolving circumstances.
The fall of Assad’s regime is a significant event in the Middle East, a region where geopolitical dynamics have shifted for years. Syria now stands on the brink of a new historical chapter; however, despite the civil war’s conclusion, uncertainty remains, and international attention will be crucial for ensuring the region’s stability and security.
The ongoing conflicts in 2024 have set the stage for long-term destabilization across the Middle East. Issues such as refugee crises, destroyed infrastructure, and the rise of radical sentiments are creating an environment ripe for new crises that could take decades to resolve.
While the intricacies of the situation are complex, many international experts emphasize the urgent need to revive peace negotiations. Only a diplomatic approach can alleviate human suffering and lay the groundwork for stability. However, the prospects for such negotiations remain unclear, making further escalation in the region seem unavoidable.
What can we expect in 2025?
In 2025, the Middle East will likely remain a hotbed of conflict and instability, influenced by the events of previous years. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will persist as a central factor destabilizing the region. Following the devastating occurrences of 2024, including the ongoing humanitarian disaster in Gaza, the situation remains critical. Israel is expected to continue expanding settlements while disregarding the decisions of international bodies such as the UN, the International Criminal Court, and the International Court of Justice. Nevertheless, rising public outrage in Western nations and increased protests against Israeli actions may shift global sentiment, though this is unlikely to impact steadfast US support for Israel.
The return of Donald Trump’s administration is anticipated to uphold a resolutely pro-Israel stance, despite considerable political and economic consequences for the US. This unwavering support could become a burden for Washington, undermining trust in the post-World War II international system. Nevertheless, Palestinian resistance, despite its significant losses, is poised to continue through both diplomatic and militant avenues, hindering normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states.
On the Syrian front, the new leadership will face immense challenges. Reconstructing administrative institutions and infrastructure will be priority, yet regaining control over the entire country will be significantly difficult, particularly with external actors supporting forces such as the Kurdish YPG/PKK in northeastern Syria. The new Syrian government may attempt to negotiate the disarmament and integration of these forces into the nation-building process. If these negotiations falter, the government may resort to military action, potentially leading to new waves of violence.
Continued interference by regional and global players will intensify the situation. Furthermore, it remains uncertain whether al-Sharaa can unify the country, especially amid reports of emerging factions dissatisfied with the new Syrian government. There exists a tangible risk that Syria could once again plunge into civil war.
Following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime, Israel, backed by the Trump administration, is poised to redirect its focus to Iran. Increasing pressure on Tehran is expected to become a cornerstone of Israel’s foreign policy, with support from the US and regional allies. This strategy will likely include military strikes, sabotage operations, and economic measures aimed at destabilizing Iran’s internal situation.
Efforts by the West to establish constructive negotiations with Iran are unlikely to bring significant results. Confronted with escalating isolation, Iran may adopt a more hardline position regarding its nuclear program. Facing external pressures and internal crises, Iranian leadership could announce intentions to develop nuclear weapons. Such a move would represent a desperate bid to safeguard the regime and retain power amidst threats of foreign intervention and internal instability, with nuclear weapons viewed as a safeguard for independence and a deterrent against military attacks.
However, such a decision would likely heighten tensions further. Announcing possession of nuclear weapons could provoke severe reactions from Israel and the West, potentially leading to intensified strikes on critical Iranian nuclear facilities and further sanctions, exacerbating the country’s already fragile economy.
At the same time, internal tensions are expected to grow. Complications will arise from increasing ethnic divisions, including clashes between Kurdish and Azerbaijani communities, already observed in 2024. Israel and its allies, taking advantage of a weakened central authority, may seek to amplify these ethnic conflicts, resulting in greater destabilization within Iran. These developments elevate the risk of fragmentation and disunity in the country.
A notable vulnerability lies in the potential transition of power from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to his son, Mojtaba. Although no official announcements have been made, rumors regarding succession plans are causing tremors within Iran’s political elite. Such a power shift could trigger factional struggles for influence, further undermining the central government’s authority.
Under these conditions, Israel, with US backing, is set to persist with operations against Iran, carrying out strikes on vital infrastructure and cyberattacks to destabilize the country. Heightened economic sanctions, external provocations, and internal challenges will render 2025 a precarious year for Iran.
In 2025, the Middle East will continue to grapple with an increasing potential for conflict, encompassing both existing and emerging confrontational areas.
Libya will remain a critical hotspot of instability, divided between the internationally recognized Government of National Unity in Tripoli and the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar, which controls eastern regions. Central to this struggle will be control over natural resources, especially oil, which will be a significant cause of tension. The involvement of external players such as Türkiye and Egypt will deepen divisions and elevate the risk of renewed escalation.
The conflict in Sudan, which erupted in 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, is poised to intensify. The clashes are escalating into a broader crisis, particularly in the Darfur and Blue Nile regions, resulting in increasing refugee numbers and a deepening humanitarian disaster. Sudan’s instability will threaten neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan, jeopardizing regional security. International efforts to stabilize the situation have largely been inadequate, paving the way for expanding conflicts.
Yemen will remain a focal point of regional tension. Israel, Western nations, and regional allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to escalate military pressure against the Ansar Allah movement. Violence in Yemen will continue to peak, threatening stability in the Arabian Peninsula. The ongoing conflict between the Houthis and the coalition will be exacerbated by external interests, severely complicating peace prospects.
Lebanon, amid an acute economic and political crisis, risks transforming into another escalation flashpoint. As Hezbollah’s influence wanes, fierce battles for dominance among both domestic and regional actors are already underway. Economic collapse, soaring poverty, and humanitarian hardships will fuel public discontent. These factors, combined with inter-sectarian tensions, pose a serious risk of renewed civil war, potentially destabilizing Lebanon further and intensifying crises in neighboring countries.
Economic and social challenges in the Middle East in 2025
The economic landscape and the social fabric of citizens in the Middle East are expected to worsen in 2025, exacerbated by global tensions and regional conflicts. These elements will act as additional catalysts for instability, deepening crises both within individual nations and throughout the region as a whole.
Egypt faces a particularly dire economic situation. Falling revenues from the Suez Canal, due to diminishing global trade volumes and shifting logistical routes, continue to burden the economy. Simultaneously, the relentless rise in food prices is fueling social unrest. As living conditions for the majority deteriorate, the government's stability may be threatened, potentially sparking a new wave of anti-government protests. Should these protests escalate, instability in Egypt—the largest Arab country—could spill over into neighboring nations, magnifying regional crises.
Against this broader backdrop, competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is intensifying. Both countries are vying for international investments and pushing large-scale infrastructure and energy projects. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiatives, including the ambitious NEOM project, are facing increased competition from the UAE, which seeks to establish itself as the primary financial and transportation hub in the region. This rivalry carries the risk of economic tensions and could escalate political competition between these traditionally allied nations.
Türkiye's economy is in a precarious state. Persistent high inflation continues to erode purchasing power, fostering growing dissatisfaction with the government. Despite governmental attempts to stabilize the situation, the living standards of most citizens are steadily decreasing. This trend has intensified anti-government sentiment, which may develop into mass protests. Existing political and socio-economic challenges threaten to further polarize society and weaken the government’s hold on power.
The economic difficulties faced by key countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye have the capacity to create a domino effect throughout the region. Social unrest, economic rivalry, and political instability will exacerbate existing conflicts in Libya, Sudan, Yemen, and Lebanon, deepening the overall crisis. As these pressures mount, the international community could confront new humanitarian challenges, waves of migration, and expanding zones of instability.
In 2025, economic and social factors are expected to be as pivotal as military conflicts in shaping the Middle East's instability. Declining economic conditions, rising social discontent, and increasing competition among regional powers present significant risks to the region's overall stability. Without substantial interventions or cooperative efforts, these challenges are likely to escalate, complicating the already uncertain path to recovery and peace.
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
The year 2024 has witnessed a notable increase in armed conflicts across the Middle East. In addition to ongoing bombardments of Gaza, Israel has intensified its military operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, whose forces have fired hundreds of rockets into Israeli territory. For the first time in two decades, Israel has also confronted Iran directly.
Following Hamas’ attacks on October 7, 2023, Israel initiated a ground and air offensive on Gaza that remains in effect. The Gaza Strip continues to be under blockade, leading to an acute humanitarian crisis. Gaza’s Ministry of Health reports that more than 45,000 individuals have died since the conflict’s inception. The blockade and relentless bombings have transformed daily life for Gaza’s 2.1 million residents into a disaster, stripping them of shelter and escape routes.
In May, Israel executed a significant operation in Rafah, southern Gaza, taking control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a 14 km buffer zone along the Egypt border. This operation forced hundreds of thousands of residents to flee, seeking safety in schools, hospitals, and refugee camps, many of which have also been hit by Israeli airstrikes. Acute shortages of food, water, and medical supplies have triggered hunger and a resurgence of diseases, such as polio.
The situation in Lebanon has also sharply worsened. In late September, Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah. Over eight weeks, Israeli airstrikes and drones targeted militant positions in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and even Beirut. The September 27 death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike was followed by escalated clashes, displacing approximately 1.2 million individuals, over 20% of Lebanon’s population.
Tensions between Israel and Iran escalated significantly in 2024, with Israel carrying out significant strikes on Iranian military locations. In April, a commander of the Quds Force was killed, and in October, Israel targeted around 20 sites in Iran, including air-defense systems and facilities related to its nuclear program. Iran retaliated with missile strikes, some of which were intercepted by Israeli defenses bolstered by support from the US, UK, and Jordan. However, several missiles did hit their intended targets, marking one of the most severe escalations in recent years.
Amid these developments, the domestic situation in Israel around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains fraught. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, charging him with war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Nevertheless, his popularity in Israel has surged due to military successes against Lebanon and Iran. Internationally, Netanyahu has gained substantial support following Donald Trump’s re-election as US president. With unwavering backing from Washington, Netanyahu is emboldened to pursue plans to expand West Bank settlements and escalate confrontations with Iran and its allies.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza has deteriorated to catastrophic levels, with food and medical supplies rapidly running out and water distribution reduced to an absolute minimum. Addressing the repercussions of hunger and disease outbreaks has become increasingly difficult amidst the ongoing conflict. International humanitarian organizations, including UNRWA and the Red Cross, have been largely unable to access most areas due to the high risk of attacks.
The conflict along the Lebanese-Israeli border has inflicted severe damage on regional infrastructure. Bombings have disrupted power and water supplies, worsening living conditions for civilians. Lebanese authorities have called for international intervention, but the influence of external actors such as the US and France remains limited.
Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian military installations have escalated the risk of a nuclear confrontation. Analysts caution that Tehran may accelerate its nuclear program as a deterrent. Meanwhile, Israel threatens further military action, exacerbating tensions in the region. Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye have engaged in mediation efforts to prevent further escalation, but major global powers' positions, including those of the US, Russia, and China, remain contradictory. Their involvement has largely been limited to political statements and military support for their respective allies.
The year 2024 was a turning point for Syria, as the long-standing Assad regime faced a decisive collapse. In early December, armed groups led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, with Türkiye’s backing, captured Damascus, ending the Assad dynasty’s rule.
The regime’s downfall stemmed from a swift offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which took key cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Homs within ten days, aided by weakened support from Assad's key allies—Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran—who were embroiled in their own crises throughout 2024. The fragmentation of the Syrian army and a lack of coordinated defense strategies were significant factors in the regime’s defeat.
After Damascus fell, Bashar Assad fled to Moscow with his family, leaving the country in chaos. This marked the conclusion of a civil war that began in 2011 and had claimed at least 300,000 lives, with another 100,000 unaccounted for, according to UN estimates.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, also known as Ahmad al-Sharaa, has emerged as Syria’s new de facto leader. Formerly the head of Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, he severed ties with the organization in 2016 to lead HTS, which has grown to dominate Idlib province. Al-Golani has vowed to respect the rights of various religious communities, including minorities.
Despite HTS being classified as a terrorist organization by the US, 2024 saw an international dialogue initiated with its representatives. In December, UN, US, and European diplomats engaged with HTS delegates in Damascus to discuss a peaceful power transition and organizing free elections within three months. The US even rescinded its $10 million bounty on al-Golani, signaling a shift in its approach to Syria’s evolving circumstances.
The fall of Assad’s regime is a significant event in the Middle East, a region where geopolitical dynamics have shifted for years. Syria now stands on the brink of a new historical chapter; however, despite the civil war’s conclusion, uncertainty remains, and international attention will be crucial for ensuring the region’s stability and security.
The ongoing conflicts in 2024 have set the stage for long-term destabilization across the Middle East. Issues such as refugee crises, destroyed infrastructure, and the rise of radical sentiments are creating an environment ripe for new crises that could take decades to resolve.
While the intricacies of the situation are complex, many international experts emphasize the urgent need to revive peace negotiations. Only a diplomatic approach can alleviate human suffering and lay the groundwork for stability. However, the prospects for such negotiations remain unclear, making further escalation in the region seem unavoidable.
What can we expect in 2025?
In 2025, the Middle East will likely remain a hotbed of conflict and instability, influenced by the events of previous years. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will persist as a central factor destabilizing the region. Following the devastating occurrences of 2024, including the ongoing humanitarian disaster in Gaza, the situation remains critical. Israel is expected to continue expanding settlements while disregarding the decisions of international bodies such as the UN, the International Criminal Court, and the International Court of Justice. Nevertheless, rising public outrage in Western nations and increased protests against Israeli actions may shift global sentiment, though this is unlikely to impact steadfast US support for Israel.
The return of Donald Trump’s administration is anticipated to uphold a resolutely pro-Israel stance, despite considerable political and economic consequences for the US. This unwavering support could become a burden for Washington, undermining trust in the post-World War II international system. Nevertheless, Palestinian resistance, despite its significant losses, is poised to continue through both diplomatic and militant avenues, hindering normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states.
On the Syrian front, the new leadership will face immense challenges. Reconstructing administrative institutions and infrastructure will be priority, yet regaining control over the entire country will be significantly difficult, particularly with external actors supporting forces such as the Kurdish YPG/PKK in northeastern Syria. The new Syrian government may attempt to negotiate the disarmament and integration of these forces into the nation-building process. If these negotiations falter, the government may resort to military action, potentially leading to new waves of violence.
Continued interference by regional and global players will intensify the situation. Furthermore, it remains uncertain whether al-Sharaa can unify the country, especially amid reports of emerging factions dissatisfied with the new Syrian government. There exists a tangible risk that Syria could once again plunge into civil war.
Following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime, Israel, backed by the Trump administration, is poised to redirect its focus to Iran. Increasing pressure on Tehran is expected to become a cornerstone of Israel’s foreign policy, with support from the US and regional allies. This strategy will likely include military strikes, sabotage operations, and economic measures aimed at destabilizing Iran’s internal situation.
Efforts by the West to establish constructive negotiations with Iran are unlikely to bring significant results. Confronted with escalating isolation, Iran may adopt a more hardline position regarding its nuclear program. Facing external pressures and internal crises, Iranian leadership could announce intentions to develop nuclear weapons. Such a move would represent a desperate bid to safeguard the regime and retain power amidst threats of foreign intervention and internal instability, with nuclear weapons viewed as a safeguard for independence and a deterrent against military attacks.
However, such a decision would likely heighten tensions further. Announcing possession of nuclear weapons could provoke severe reactions from Israel and the West, potentially leading to intensified strikes on critical Iranian nuclear facilities and further sanctions, exacerbating the country’s already fragile economy.
At the same time, internal tensions are expected to grow. Complications will arise from increasing ethnic divisions, including clashes between Kurdish and Azerbaijani communities, already observed in 2024. Israel and its allies, taking advantage of a weakened central authority, may seek to amplify these ethnic conflicts, resulting in greater destabilization within Iran. These developments elevate the risk of fragmentation and disunity in the country.
A notable vulnerability lies in the potential transition of power from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to his son, Mojtaba. Although no official announcements have been made, rumors regarding succession plans are causing tremors within Iran’s political elite. Such a power shift could trigger factional struggles for influence, further undermining the central government’s authority.
Under these conditions, Israel, with US backing, is set to persist with operations against Iran, carrying out strikes on vital infrastructure and cyberattacks to destabilize the country. Heightened economic sanctions, external provocations, and internal challenges will render 2025 a precarious year for Iran.
In 2025, the Middle East will continue to grapple with an increasing potential for conflict, encompassing both existing and emerging confrontational areas.
Libya will remain a critical hotspot of instability, divided between the internationally recognized Government of National Unity in Tripoli and the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar, which controls eastern regions. Central to this struggle will be control over natural resources, especially oil, which will be a significant cause of tension. The involvement of external players such as Türkiye and Egypt will deepen divisions and elevate the risk of renewed escalation.
The conflict in Sudan, which erupted in 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, is poised to intensify. The clashes are escalating into a broader crisis, particularly in the Darfur and Blue Nile regions, resulting in increasing refugee numbers and a deepening humanitarian disaster. Sudan’s instability will threaten neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan, jeopardizing regional security. International efforts to stabilize the situation have largely been inadequate, paving the way for expanding conflicts.
Yemen will remain a focal point of regional tension. Israel, Western nations, and regional allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to escalate military pressure against the Ansar Allah movement. Violence in Yemen will continue to peak, threatening stability in the Arabian Peninsula. The ongoing conflict between the Houthis and the coalition will be exacerbated by external interests, severely complicating peace prospects.
Lebanon, amid an acute economic and political crisis, risks transforming into another escalation flashpoint. As Hezbollah’s influence wanes, fierce battles for dominance among both domestic and regional actors are already underway. Economic collapse, soaring poverty, and humanitarian hardships will fuel public discontent. These factors, combined with inter-sectarian tensions, pose a serious risk of renewed civil war, potentially destabilizing Lebanon further and intensifying crises in neighboring countries.
Economic and social challenges in the Middle East in 2025
The economic landscape and the social fabric of citizens in the Middle East are expected to worsen in 2025, exacerbated by global tensions and regional conflicts. These elements will act as additional catalysts for instability, deepening crises both within individual nations and throughout the region as a whole.
Egypt faces a particularly dire economic situation. Falling revenues from the Suez Canal, due to diminishing global trade volumes and shifting logistical routes, continue to burden the economy. Simultaneously, the relentless rise in food prices is fueling social unrest. As living conditions for the majority deteriorate, the government's stability may be threatened, potentially sparking a new wave of anti-government protests. Should these protests escalate, instability in Egypt—the largest Arab country—could spill over into neighboring nations, magnifying regional crises.
Against this broader backdrop, competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is intensifying. Both countries are vying for international investments and pushing large-scale infrastructure and energy projects. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiatives, including the ambitious NEOM project, are facing increased competition from the UAE, which seeks to establish itself as the primary financial and transportation hub in the region. This rivalry carries the risk of economic tensions and could escalate political competition between these traditionally allied nations.
Türkiye's economy is in a precarious state. Persistent high inflation continues to erode purchasing power, fostering growing dissatisfaction with the government. Despite governmental attempts to stabilize the situation, the living standards of most citizens are steadily decreasing. This trend has intensified anti-government sentiment, which may develop into mass protests. Existing political and socio-economic challenges threaten to further polarize society and weaken the government’s hold on power.
The economic difficulties faced by key countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye have the capacity to create a domino effect throughout the region. Social unrest, economic rivalry, and political instability will exacerbate existing conflicts in Libya, Sudan, Yemen, and Lebanon, deepening the overall crisis. As these pressures mount, the international community could confront new humanitarian challenges, waves of migration, and expanding zones of instability.
In 2025, economic and social factors are expected to be as pivotal as military conflicts in shaping the Middle East's instability. Declining economic conditions, rising social discontent, and increasing competition among regional powers present significant risks to the region's overall stability. Without substantial interventions or cooperative efforts, these challenges are likely to escalate, complicating the already uncertain path to recovery and peace.
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
