Poll: Young voters more motivated after Dobbs decision

Younger voters are notoriously hard to turn out, especially in midterms. But motivation to vote among registered voters aged 18-35 in key battleground states has shot up since the Dobbs decision, according to a polling memo shared first with POLITICO by the liberal group NextGen America.

Forty-seven percent of those surveyed said they were very motivated to vote in November, while 44 percent fell into the “somewhat motivated” category. That is a jump up in motivation from a March NextGen poll, in which just 38 percent were very motivated and 51 percent were somewhat motivated to cast a 2022 ballot.

“The Dobbs decision has been a wakeup call for a lot of young people,” said Kristi Johnston, a spokesperson for NextGen. “Motivation is up because young people are dialed into what’s at stake.”

The survey, which was conducted by Global Strategy Group from late July through early August, polled 1,000 young voters across seven states: Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All of the states have a competitive race for governor or Senate — or both. The March survey also included Texas respondents.

The memo, which the organization said would serve as a roadmap for its messaging, found that protecting rights — including but not limited to abortion — is key to younger voters.

The group, which was initially founded as part of billionaire businessman Tom Steyer’s political operation, focuses on turning out young voters for Democrats. It has committed to spending $34 million this election cycle in the seven states that were polled, along with Texas.

NextGen’s memo argued that the Dobbs decision has “helped to awaken the youth vote in a difficult midterm,” with the survey finding that 2-in-3 of those polled said that the “decision has made them care more about what happens in November.”

It also found that young female voters were overwhelmingly opposed to the Dobbs decision. Just 18 percent of those polled supported it, while 76 percent opposed it. That was even true among young Republican women: In that subset, 36 percent supported the Dobbs ruling and 57 percent opposed it, with NextGen arguing that the Dobbs "decision is a massive wedge for the GOP when it comes to the youth vote."

The survey memo also points to the juggling act liberal groups and candidates have had to manage this year concerning President Joe Biden’s still-sagging popularity. While the group declined to share Biden’s specific approval ratings among young voters, the memo acknowledged that “young voters, like the rest of the electorate, are down on Biden … and they feel frustrated and disappointed with the state of the country.”

(The survey was fielded before some recent big moves from the White House, including the signing of the Inflation Reduction Act and Biden’s order to forgive some student debt.)

But the group pointed to young voters still supporting Democratic candidates downballot, finding that Democratic standing in a generic congressional ballot ticked up 3 points since March, to a 16 point advantage.

“For a lot of them, they don’t identify as Democrats, but they do care about progressive issues,” said Johnston.