Inside the Battle for Control of Michigan's State Legislature
In 2022, Democrats achieved full control in Michigan. Now, Republicans are working to regain that power.
In recent years, the MAGA movement has caused significant fractures within the Michigan Republican Party, resulting in over half a million dollars in debt, weak candidate recruitment, internal conflicts, and even physical confrontations. This dysfunction contributed to Democrats achieving complete control of statewide offices in the 2022 midterms — a first in 40 years.
With new leadership in place, GOP leaders assert that the tumult is behind them and see a chance to demonstrate this by flipping the state House in the upcoming November elections and dismantling the Democrats' coveted trifecta that has enabled substantial progressive reforms.
“There are divisions and they will come back up on Nov. 6, the day after the election,” stated Pete Hoekstra, a former congressman who became the GOP chair in January, tasked with unifying the party and restoring its fundraising efforts. “I’m not saying we’re all great friends, but for the next 60 days I’m seeing a tremendous amount of unity between the different groups focusing on one thing, which is winning.”
As a critical battleground, Michigan is witnessing fierce competition between Democrats and Republicans for control of state legislatures. Historically, the GOP has wielded significant influence in state capitals for more than a decade, but Democrats are increasing their investments in these contests nationwide. With Congress largely stalled by divided governance, state legislatures are emerging as pivotal arenas for shaping national policy.
Democrats, buoyed by their recent control, assert that they are the party with both financial resources and momentum. Their actions in Michigan have established a model for Democrats nationwide on how to effectively leverage newfound power at the state level.
However, the Republicans need to secure just two additional seats, with their success closely tied to Donald Trump, who maintains strong backing in this essential state. GOP operatives are optimistic that Trump will maintain a visible presence in Michigan, boosting down-ballot candidates' chances on Election Day.
The November elections will also gauge which party has the superior ground game, as both sides vie to mobilize campaign volunteers to knock on doors and distribute mailers, aiming to offset the low name recognition that down-ballot candidates often experience. The heightened national interest in Michigan races has intensified pressure on Democrats to uphold their legislative dominance while pushing Republicans to reclaim it.
“Republicans are hungry and have been out of power completely in this state,” remarked Adrian Hemond, CEO of bipartisan consulting firm Grassroots Midwest. “The state GOP is in the worst shape it’s been in decades. There’s room to grow, but they’re definitely behind.”
It’s difficult to walk just a few hundred yards in Downriver, a metropolitan Detroit area, without spotting Trump memorabilia adorning homes. Traditionally a stronghold for blue-collar union votes, this region has shifted toward Republicans in recent elections, making it a challenging terrain for Democratic state Rep. Jaime Churches as she seeks reelection. In her first race in 2022, she won by a mere 660 votes, part of a wave of new Democrats leading to the party flipping four seats in both chambers.
When not in Lansing, Churches, a 36-year-old former elementary school teacher, canvasses her district, which includes six towns — five with Republican mayors — distributing mailers and engaging with constituents. Since March, her volunteer team has knocked on thousands of doors, and during the summer campaign period, they encountered Democrats requesting Harris-Walz signs to balance out the Trump-Vance ones.
Democrats believe that voters will continue to split their tickets, as seen in 2020 when Trump won state Sen. Darrin Camilleri’s Downriver district by eight points, while voters still chose the Democratic candidate by five points.
Churches is up against Republican Rylee Linting, a 22-year-old newcomer who emerged victorious from a three-way Republican primary to represent a district identified as a top target for GOP pickup.
According to her campaign website, Linting, who grew up in Downriver and attended Grand Valley State University, became politically active after facing challenges most notably linked to what she describes as “indoctrination, vaccination mandates, and woke student culture.” She has previously served as the youth chair for the Michigan Republican Party and currently works as a field representative for Turning Point Action, a conservative group spearheaded by Charlie Kirk that is implementing an aggressive get-out-the-vote strategy in key states.
Linting did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
In Lansing, Churches has collaborated with her colleagues to pass key initiatives such as eliminating pension income taxes, boosting education funding by $500 million, and providing free meals to all students. Democrats are heavily campaigning on this legislative record, urging voters to allow them to continue their work.
“That’s why I’m doing this,” Churches declared during a brief interlude between door knocks on a September afternoon, just 56 days before the election. “We need more time.”
House Democrats in tight races, including Churches, have garnered support from labor unions that see backing these candidates as a way to reward the progressive labor policies enacted by the Legislature, such as repealing right-to-work laws and reinstating prevailing wage requirements. Labor groups continue to be significant Democratic contributors, having donated over $2.4 million to candidates.
“These last two years have been a lot of clearing up the mess that was made for us,” said Eli Isaguirre, political and legislative director for the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights. “If we can have two more years of investing in policies … I think we’ll see huge dividends in what’s to come.”
Nonetheless, the political landscape that welcomed Churches to Lansing has changed dramatically. In 2022, down-ballot Democrats benefited from a strong governor at the top of the ticket and an abortion access ballot initiative that energized the Democratic base. Governor Gretchen Whitmer achieved a significant victory over GOP challenger Tudor Dixon, winning by 11 points, thereby enhancing her standing as a national figure within the Democratic Party.
Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes believes that down-ballot Democrats still benefit from a robust top-of-ticket presence through Vice President Kamala Harris, with full campaign support from Whitmer. Harris revitalized Democrats’ prospects in Michigan after Biden’s plummeting poll numbers followed a lackluster debate performance. By mid-year, Biden was trailing Trump by two points, but Harris is now leading Trump by almost the same margin.
While Democrats maintain confidence that abortion will continue to resonate with voters, they acknowledge the risk that its significance may fade for Michiganders, who might perceive the issue as resolved since the ballot measure passed and the Legislature removed a 1931 abortion ban.
“A lot of people feel comforted by the fact that we’ve done these things, but they do understand as well that at this point we’re kind of on this precipice,” reflected Rep. Carol Glanville, a Democrat representing a competitive Grand Rapids area district. “We need to maintain our majority in order to really solidify these things and to stop having the conversation of should we go forward or should we go back?”
Democrats dismiss Republicans’ claims of a party revival, asserting that their core principles remain unchanged.
“They continue to be extremists in so many ways,” Barnes commented. “No matter who the chair of the state party is, they haven’t changed who they are.”
As the state Republican party has struggled, House GOP leaders have developed a type of shadow campaign to address the void in fundraising and staffing. The Michigan House Republican Campaign Committee is under new leadership focused on enhancing fundraising and aligning messaging. This election cycle, Republican legislative candidates have raised $7.6 million, according to the latest campaign finance reports.
An array of state legislature-focused PACs and national organizations have bolstered these efforts. The Republican State Leadership Committee, dedicated to down-ballot races, has identified Michigan as a prime target.
Republicans have utilized some of these funds to run television ads and distribute mailers earlier than in previous cycles, a strategic choice they believe enhances their competitive position.
Support from the DeVos family, a prominent presence in Michigan politics, has also benefited Republicans. Members of the DeVos family, known for their connection to the Amway fortune and including former Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, have contributed over $800,000 to Republican efforts this cycle, as reported by Bridge Michigan.
“We’ve created a system or operation that will win no matter if we’re in a good environment or bad environment or neutral,” Rep. Bill Schuette, chair of the HRCC, claimed.
While the HRCC has achieved fundraising milestones, the state party still faces financial challenges, with an outstanding debt of $184,000 in its state account and a mere $384,000 available in its federal campaign account.
On the Democratic side, organizations such as the States Project and Forward Majority have been channeling more resources into electing Democrats to state legislatures as the party recalibrates its strategy to regain influence within the states. Nevertheless, even with improved fundraising efforts, Republicans continue to dominate national politics.
Republicans are focusing their messaging on economic issues and school safety, attributing high living costs and unsafe school environments to Democratic leadership, particularly citing a $300 million cut to mental health and school safety services in the latest budget.
In early September, the House Republican Campaign Committee unveiled a “Mission for Michigan” policy platform outlining their agenda should they regain control. A Day One priority would be reversing a minimum wage increase mandated by the state Supreme Court, as stated by Rep. Bryan Posthumus, GOP minority floor leader. Republicans argue that the court ruling jeopardizes the restaurant and bar sectors, which are already grappling with steep labor costs.
Should a split government emerge, Republicans envision their role as a counterbalance to Whitmer, dedicated to obstructing legislative initiatives and slowing her ascent. Despite the Democrats' successes in advancing significant legislation with narrow majorities, they can expect gridlock in a divided Legislature.
“We’re going to be the brakes,” Posthumus stated. “We’ve been careening down this hill of California progressivism for the past two years. We’ll be able to put a stop to that.”
Mathilde Moreau for TROIB News