‘Everybody’s Just in a Pissed-Off Mood’: Rahm Emanuel Discusses the Major Campaign He Is Unable to Lead

It resembles a scenario from a classic myth: a renowned American political strategist finds himself in the midst of a volatile political campaign in one of the wealthiest nations on Earth, yet he is unable to take part in any capacity.

This is Rahm Emanuel’s intriguing situation this fall.

Serving as America’s ambassador to Japan, Emanuel has a close-up perspective on the country’s democratic process as it approaches a significant election on Sunday. Sparked by the new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, this will be the first vote in over a decade where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) might lose its total grip on power.

In an interview with PMG Magazine, Emanuel admitted he feels “handcuffed” in an unusual manner for someone whose illustrious career has included roles as White House chief of staff, Chicago mayor, and chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. While he can observe the Japanese election, he is unable to provide advice to politicians who may greatly benefit from it.

Nonetheless, Emanuel remains deeply engaged with the election, gathering information from consulates, the embassy’s political-military office, and analyzing polling data related to the campaign.

“I consume that like I was still the former DCCC chair looking through crosstabs,” Emanuel said.

The LDP’s current political issues have specific causes, including fundraising scandals that have alienated the public and contributed to the unpopularity of Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida.

However, Emanuel proposed a broader explanation — one that parallels the contentious presidential race in the U.S. Although he is unable to actively participate in campaign efforts, his mind still grapples with the challenges of campaigning within a complex political landscape.

In our discussion, Emanuel noted that the struggles of the LDP are not occurring in isolation; many incumbent parties worldwide are facing difficulties, whether in Britain, Canada, or America.

He explained, “Voters…have still not recovered from the disruptions of the coronavirus pandemic, when they experienced a shocking ‘destruction of routine, normalcy, the world you know.’” This collective trauma continues to influence political sentiments globally, leaving voters from Tokyo to Toronto feeling frustrated.

“Everybody’s just in a pissed-off mood,” Emanuel said.

Switching between his roles as diplomat and strategist, Emanuel provided insights directed at the next U.S. president regarding strategic partnerships with Japan and shared his observations about the mechanics of political campaigning in the country. He was particularly struck by the local custom of utilizing loudspeakers mounted on vehicles to broadcast messages to voters.

In a nation known for its advanced technology and extensive public transportation, Emanuel suggested, “I would kind of jettison the car and go a little more on the social media.”

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Is it a little like torture for you, being in the middle of a national election and you can’t play?

You mean, here in Japan or — ?

Yeah, the one in Japan.

You know, you’re handcuffed. There are things you see that you would do differently, that you’re not allowed to do. It has its own frustration. But there’s a history here, there’s a culture here that’s different than the United States, a sense of how you campaign, how you make an argument.

But it’s a bit of an out-of-body experience, where you have to be on the sidelines of electoral politics — kind of a home game for me.

I know that you’re not going to give advice to the LDP or anyone through me or presumably by any other vector. But speaking broadly about Japanese politics, are there things in the campaign culture where you feel like: One of these days, they’re going to figure out X or Y, and it’s going to totally change the way they operate?

There’s one thing that I find — funny is not the right word, I find it intriguing — which is, they have a lot of people drive around in cars with loudspeakers. That’s part of the advertising. I’m in Tokyo, I haven’t been in Osaka, Nagoya, Kobe, Kyoto, a lot of other cities up and down the country’s main island. I would kind of jettison the car and go a little more on the social media. And I say that tongue in cheek, because they’re doing it, and maybe in parts of the density of an area, it works.

But given that mass transit is so ubiquitous here now — maybe they’re out in front of the train stations here in the morning — I would definitely start moving resources from the car with a loudspeaker.

Are you following the election by picking up the paper in the morning like everybody else? Or do you have other ways of taking the pulse of this thing?

I talk to some people, journalists. I mean, my job and the job I direct at the embassy and the consulates throughout the country is to have a wide-ranging network. There’s a lot of polling that’s done here. Today, there are two polls out. There’s a lot of data. I consume that like I was still the former DCCC chair looking through crosstabs. That said, I make sure that our [political-military] office and our consulates have a network of people that they talk to that gives you crosscurrents of data and information. That gets fed into having a pretty good picture of what’s happening.

What should the next American president know about the mood over there right now, politically?

China basically wants to say, “We are the rising power, get in line or you’re going to get the Philippine treatment, and America is a declining presence in the Indo-Pacific and you can’t bet on them.” Our basic message is, “We are a permanent Pacific power and presence and you can bet long on the United States. And that we’re here, we ain’t going anywhere, and not only from the security side but the political side, the diplomatic side, you can bet long on America because we’re here now.”

We also have to be honest that the Indo-Pacific is, I hate using this term, is an away game. It’s a home game for China. You’re not doing anything in this region without your allies. Your allies anchor you in this region, the most important economic and geostrategic challenge for the United States. They give you more than just a foothold.

If you look at what we’ve done on both trilats [U.S.-Japan-Korea and U.S.-Japan-Philippines partnerships], expanding AUKUS, the Quad, the one constant with the United States is Japan.

Is there any uncertainty cast over that if you have a new or newish prime minister at the same time as you have a new or newish president?

I want to be careful, because I don’t like answering hypotheticals. But as I said just recently, on a phone call back with somebody at [the Defense Department]: We all got used to the fact, with Prime Minister Kishida and his team, of stability in the relationship and the capacity, because you had a lot of history with the individuals, of making decisions and moving them. That’s about to change.

You had a real bond with Kishida, right?

I had a bond with the prime minister. I gave him a personal gift. The Dodgers, two Japanese players, and the Chicago Cubs, two Japanese players — their individual jerseys, signed by each of the players. He used to be a second baseman, Kishida. And that was my personal gift to him.

He, his team, inside the Kantei — which is their kind of West Wing — and the members of his cabinet, we had a very good working relationship based on understanding and, most importantly, trust. You’ve got two different countries, two different perspectives. You’re going to have a new government. Elections have meaning. So it’s going to impact it. I don’t know how.

Does it rattle you at all, as a Democrat, that you have so many incumbent parties around the world — including, obviously, in Japan — just sweating in a different way these days?

I’ve said before, three Cs have changed the world — Covid, conflict, and coercion. And of those, nobody who has governed through Covid, politically, has survived. Covid is not really good for your body physically, and it’s not really good on the body politic either.

If you look at Labour versus Tories, you look at France and Macron, you look at AfD in Germany, you look at the headwinds Trudeau’s facing, you look at President Biden, right track-wrong track in the United States — the impact of Covid is not just on the body. It’s on the body politic. And Japan is not immune from that.

I think we haven’t fully appreciated the kind of echo chamber that Covid created inside the political systems, and the destruction of routine, normalcy, the world you know, into where you feel like everything about the world you know is upended. And it hasn’t really been replaced. It’s just upended. Your kid’s school schedule — upended. OK? Where you work, how you work, whether it’s from the kitchen table or the office, what days — there’s no routine. There’s no normalcy.

So, I don’t think we quite appreciate, in our judgment about politics, the aftershocks of Covid.

Just one more thing here. Being in a country where one party has had overwhelming control of government and only really runs into trouble when there’s a massive scandal — does it feel a little like Chicago?

This is a joke: It feels a little more like New York City.

OK, I’ll take it.

That was a joke, based on Chicago’s competitiveness around everything with New York.

I’ll put in the full disclaimer.

That was an absolute joke. Our pizza is better than New York. Our quality of life is better. So, I’m just joking, but we do take pride in our politics versus New York. I don’t know, look at New York — not so hot.

That was, I want to be clear, Alex, a joke about New York City that likes to look down on everybody.

Well, as a native New Yorker, I take your message.

No, look — it’s never good to have corruption or ethical challenges. Never good. That said, when there’s a sense of economic stress, the reaction to corruption-slash-scandal-slash ethics-breaking has a potency that packs a bigger punch than just the norm.

Sanya Singh contributed to this report for TROIB News