Europe maintains cautious optimism regarding Trump's remarks on Ukraine
The newly elected president is enthusiastic about negotiating an agreement regarding Ukraine. Meanwhile, issues related to Greenland and tariffs are generating increased challenges.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump has quickly unsettled Europeans with his threats regarding Greenland and potential trade wars. However, a surprising sense of cautious optimism has emerged in Europe concerning Ukraine.
Trump’s warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday about imposing new tariffs and sanctions unless a peace deal is reached has been welcomed by European allies and supporters of Ukraine. This has been interpreted as an indication that Trump comprehends the seriousness of the situation in Ukraine and will not forsake the country or NATO allies in his interactions with Putin.
“The President Trump that I served alongside wants nothing to do with the perception of weakness. Nothing,” former Vice President Mike Pence stated in a small gathering of reporters on Friday. Pence refrained from disclosing when he last spoke with Trump. “If Putin thinks that he can roll the president into a position where President Trump would look like he got rolled by Russia, he's got another thing coming,” he added. While there may be an element of wishful thinking among Ukraine’s advocates concerned about a potential Trump resurgence emboldening Russia, there are early indications that are instilling hope: Trump has appointed well-known Russia hawks to his Cabinet, including national security adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Additionally, he’s pushing for NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, and several of Trump’s allies in Congress remain firmly pro-Ukraine.
“I would be lying if we say we are not nervous” about Trump’s return, said a European ambassador speaking anonymously to express his thoughts openly. “We are preparing for a lot of headaches, but one area where I am going to risk being cautiously optimistic is Ukraine and NATO.”
Pro-Ukraine Republicans note that in 2019, Trump walked away from a significant nuclear deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un despite the surrounding hype and anticipation. They suggest he could adopt a similar stance in potential negotiations with Putin regarding Ukraine.
“He gets the stakes with Putin,” remarked one administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “He knows a bad deal when he sees one and can walk away again.”
Another point raised by administration insiders is that the “Russiagate” scandal that overshadowed Trump’s first administration is largely behind them now. “He doesn’t have this extra Russiagate baggage clouding all his messaging and posturing this time around,” noted an incoming administration official. “And say what you want about his methods, but do you really think he wants to be known in the history books as ‘the man who lost Ukraine?’”
The ongoing war has shifted European consensus towards aligning with Trump’s belief that NATO members should enhance their own defense expenditures. Former Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who attended a pre-inauguration event at Trump’s club, along with others, acknowledged that he was correct in 2018 when he urged the alliance to expedite meeting the 2014 agreement for member nations to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense. His proposal for a new 5 percent threshold has not encountered significant public resistance, although many privately recognize that few NATO countries can realistically achieve it soon.
A source familiar with Trump’s stance on Ukraine, who spoke on condition of anonymity, indicated that the president's initial comments regarding ending the war should be taken seriously. This individual cited Trump’s tendency to apply public pressure on Putin as a strategy to gain leverage in negotiations, consistent with his long-standing interest in significant deal-making.
Yet this cautious optimism has its limits. Tariffs and sanctions are far less supportive than the financial and military aid provided to Ukraine by the Biden administration. Trump’s fixation on Greenland has caused unease among European allies, alongside his and his allies’ open support for far-right political movements within Europe, some of which have ties to or sympathies for Putin. “Greenland and interference in UK politics and the German elections is highly concerning,” remarked an EU official, who also admitted that Trump’s initial comments about Russia and Ukraine were “somewhat promising.”
Additionally, Trump’s unpredictable nature is generating challenges across the political spectrum, as Democratic lawmakers express frustration over his threats of trade wars and confrontational discussions with allied leaders in Denmark. “I don’t yet know how Trump’s Russia policy could be worse, but it’s Trump and he’s so unpredictable and petty, so it could always be worse,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs. “Let’s not pretend he conducts foreign policy in any normal way.”
Moreover, while Trump may be surrounding himself with Russia hawks, there are other individuals in his inner circle who are skeptical about ongoing aid to Ukraine. A notable example is Vice President JD Vance, who has opposed continued U.S. military support for Ukraine in favor of focusing U.S. military resources on confronting China. Pence downplayed Vance’s stance on Ukraine: “Yes, he was the author of the legislation to cut off all funding to Ukraine. But I would expect that he will yield to President Trump's views on all these matters,” Pence said.
Some analysts argue that Trump, unlike former President Joe Biden, does not view the war in Ukraine as a significant threat to global democracy, which heightens the risk of him settling for a poor deal with Putin. They point to his recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suggesting that Trump does not perceive this conflict in the same existential way. “He doesn’t really care about Ukraine—not in the way Biden did, or claimed to. He certainly doesn’t view this war as existential or see it as a broader assault on democracy,” noted Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank. “When have we ever heard Trump talk about protecting democracy? That’s right, we haven’t. That’s not a lens through which he views this war; it never has been,” she continued. “He sees it as a regional annoyance that he has to deal with, and he wants to end it quickly.”
European officials also worry that any agreement with Putin that brings an end to hostilities in Ukraine could allow him time to rearm and prepare for renewed offensives in the future. “Trump also has to focus not just on what to give to Putin, but what to give to Zelenskyy, including, first and foremost, effective, lasting security guarantees,” underscored Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. “Just placating Putin will not produce peace.”
Ian Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
Trump’s warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday about imposing new tariffs and sanctions unless a peace deal is reached has been welcomed by European allies and supporters of Ukraine. This has been interpreted as an indication that Trump comprehends the seriousness of the situation in Ukraine and will not forsake the country or NATO allies in his interactions with Putin.
“The President Trump that I served alongside wants nothing to do with the perception of weakness. Nothing,” former Vice President Mike Pence stated in a small gathering of reporters on Friday. Pence refrained from disclosing when he last spoke with Trump. “If Putin thinks that he can roll the president into a position where President Trump would look like he got rolled by Russia, he's got another thing coming,” he added. While there may be an element of wishful thinking among Ukraine’s advocates concerned about a potential Trump resurgence emboldening Russia, there are early indications that are instilling hope: Trump has appointed well-known Russia hawks to his Cabinet, including national security adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Additionally, he’s pushing for NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, and several of Trump’s allies in Congress remain firmly pro-Ukraine.
“I would be lying if we say we are not nervous” about Trump’s return, said a European ambassador speaking anonymously to express his thoughts openly. “We are preparing for a lot of headaches, but one area where I am going to risk being cautiously optimistic is Ukraine and NATO.”
Pro-Ukraine Republicans note that in 2019, Trump walked away from a significant nuclear deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un despite the surrounding hype and anticipation. They suggest he could adopt a similar stance in potential negotiations with Putin regarding Ukraine.
“He gets the stakes with Putin,” remarked one administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “He knows a bad deal when he sees one and can walk away again.”
Another point raised by administration insiders is that the “Russiagate” scandal that overshadowed Trump’s first administration is largely behind them now. “He doesn’t have this extra Russiagate baggage clouding all his messaging and posturing this time around,” noted an incoming administration official. “And say what you want about his methods, but do you really think he wants to be known in the history books as ‘the man who lost Ukraine?’”
The ongoing war has shifted European consensus towards aligning with Trump’s belief that NATO members should enhance their own defense expenditures. Former Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who attended a pre-inauguration event at Trump’s club, along with others, acknowledged that he was correct in 2018 when he urged the alliance to expedite meeting the 2014 agreement for member nations to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense. His proposal for a new 5 percent threshold has not encountered significant public resistance, although many privately recognize that few NATO countries can realistically achieve it soon.
A source familiar with Trump’s stance on Ukraine, who spoke on condition of anonymity, indicated that the president's initial comments regarding ending the war should be taken seriously. This individual cited Trump’s tendency to apply public pressure on Putin as a strategy to gain leverage in negotiations, consistent with his long-standing interest in significant deal-making.
Yet this cautious optimism has its limits. Tariffs and sanctions are far less supportive than the financial and military aid provided to Ukraine by the Biden administration. Trump’s fixation on Greenland has caused unease among European allies, alongside his and his allies’ open support for far-right political movements within Europe, some of which have ties to or sympathies for Putin. “Greenland and interference in UK politics and the German elections is highly concerning,” remarked an EU official, who also admitted that Trump’s initial comments about Russia and Ukraine were “somewhat promising.”
Additionally, Trump’s unpredictable nature is generating challenges across the political spectrum, as Democratic lawmakers express frustration over his threats of trade wars and confrontational discussions with allied leaders in Denmark. “I don’t yet know how Trump’s Russia policy could be worse, but it’s Trump and he’s so unpredictable and petty, so it could always be worse,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs. “Let’s not pretend he conducts foreign policy in any normal way.”
Moreover, while Trump may be surrounding himself with Russia hawks, there are other individuals in his inner circle who are skeptical about ongoing aid to Ukraine. A notable example is Vice President JD Vance, who has opposed continued U.S. military support for Ukraine in favor of focusing U.S. military resources on confronting China. Pence downplayed Vance’s stance on Ukraine: “Yes, he was the author of the legislation to cut off all funding to Ukraine. But I would expect that he will yield to President Trump's views on all these matters,” Pence said.
Some analysts argue that Trump, unlike former President Joe Biden, does not view the war in Ukraine as a significant threat to global democracy, which heightens the risk of him settling for a poor deal with Putin. They point to his recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suggesting that Trump does not perceive this conflict in the same existential way. “He doesn’t really care about Ukraine—not in the way Biden did, or claimed to. He certainly doesn’t view this war as existential or see it as a broader assault on democracy,” noted Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank. “When have we ever heard Trump talk about protecting democracy? That’s right, we haven’t. That’s not a lens through which he views this war; it never has been,” she continued. “He sees it as a regional annoyance that he has to deal with, and he wants to end it quickly.”
European officials also worry that any agreement with Putin that brings an end to hostilities in Ukraine could allow him time to rearm and prepare for renewed offensives in the future. “Trump also has to focus not just on what to give to Putin, but what to give to Zelenskyy, including, first and foremost, effective, lasting security guarantees,” underscored Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. “Just placating Putin will not produce peace.”
Ian Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
