Erdogan’s challenge: The arrest of the Turkish president’s main adversary. What's next?
The government has taken a risky gamble by targeting a key opposition leader ahead of his party’s primary. On the morning of March 19, Turkish police conducted a special operation that led to the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor and prominent opposition...
TroibNews 
The government has taken a risky gamble by targeting a key opposition leader ahead of his party’s primary.
On the morning of March 19, Turkish police conducted a special operation that led to the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor and prominent opposition leader, Ekrem Imamoglu. Affiliated with the left-leaning Republican People’s Party, Imamoglu faces serious charges, including establishing and leading a criminal enterprise, extortion, corruption, unauthorized access to personal data, rigging government contracts, and purported connections to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, deemed a terrorist organization in Türkiye. Turkish television networks broadcast live footage of Imamoglu’s arrest at his residence in Istanbul.
In addition to Imamoglu, more than a hundred individuals were detained, including his close associates, high-ranking municipal officials, business figures, and journalists. The charges against these individuals suggest a comprehensive investigation that encompasses both political and socioeconomic factors.
Reactions and consequences surrounding Imamoglu’s arrest have reverberated throughout the political landscape. For many observers of Turkish politics, the arrest itself came as no surprise. While some speculated that the authorities would refrain from extreme measures due to Imamoglu’s popularity in Istanbul and across Türkiye, his prominence has long been a point of contention for the current government. He has consistently faced accusations of undermining state interests, with ongoing attempts to limit his influence throughout his political career.
In 2019, Imamoglu’s initial victory in Istanbul’s mayoral race was annulled by Türkiye’s Supreme Election Council due to alleged irregularities, resulting in a re-run. However, this backfired as Imamoglu not only reaffirmed his victory but also increased his margin significantly over the Justice and Development Party candidate. This success transformed him from the mayor of Türkiye’s largest city to a symbolic figurehead of the entire opposition movement.
Imamoglu has subsequently emerged as a key challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration, exemplifying the principles laid down by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic. His link to the CHP, founded by Ataturk himself, emphasizes the symbolic weight of his role. It was, therefore, predictable that his arrest would elicit strong reactions from opposition leaders.
CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel characterized the arrest as an “attempted coup,” accusing the government of trying to eliminate a formidable rival ahead of the next election. He posted on X, “We’re witnessing an attempted coup against our future president. If anyone tries to turn the state against the nation, the people won’t allow it and will ultimately prevail. We won’t back down; the people’s will shall triumph.”
Similarly, Musavat Dervisoglu, a representative from the right-leaning IYI Party, asserted in parliament that the government had effectively suspended the constitution, declaring, “If Erdogan runs again, the entire opposition must protest the elections.”
Imamoglu’s arrest has heightened Türkiye’s domestic political turmoil and triggered adverse economic repercussions. Following news of his detention, the Turkish lira experienced a sharp decline: on March 19, it traded at 36.7 lira to one dollar, peaking later at 41 lira. The Istanbul Stock Exchange also faced significant impacts, with trading briefly halted after a nearly 7% drop. This market volatility mirrors investor concerns over potential political instability and its economic fallout.
Although the lira partially stabilized to around 38 lira per dollar by midday GMT on March 20, the threat of further currency depreciation lingers. Analysts caution that the ongoing political upheaval and financial market unease may lead to a deteriorating economic situation in the short term.
The timing of Imamoglu's arrest is noteworthy, occurring just one day after Istanbul University, at the request of the attorney general, moved to revoke his university degree. This decision complicates his candidacy since Türkiye’s constitution requires presidential candidates to possess valid higher education degrees. Officially, the revocation is tied to alleged irregularities from Imamoglu’s late-1980s transfer from a university in Northern Cyprus—an educational institution that Ankara did not recognize at that time.
Moreover, Imamoglu’s detention coincided with the CHP’s upcoming party congress, where he was anticipated to officially receive the opposition nomination for the 2028 presidential race. Following his arrest, significant changes occurred within the party, including the announcement from Mansur Yavas, Ankara’s mayor and another notable CHP figure critical of Erdogan, that he would not participate in the forthcoming election.
Previously, Imamoglu had faced government prosecution. In 2022, he was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison along with a political activity ban for allegedly insulting Supreme Election Council officials. That ruling is currently under appeal, but the ongoing charges he faces are of a greater magnitude and could entirely sideline him politically.
Analysts broadly interpret Imamoglu’s arrest as a preemptive maneuver by authorities aimed at neutralizing a significant adversary amidst declining support for President Erdogan. Even with the next presidential vote three years away, Imamoglu had recently amplified his campaigning efforts, advocating for early elections in light of the nation’s deepening economic crisis. Escalating protests across the country have increased the likelihood of an early vote, prompting the government to remove a crucial opposition figure well before the campaign period.
Ekrem Imamoglu is well-known for appealing to a broad demographic spectrum. Historically, the CHP has focused on secular voters, but Imamoglu’s acceptance of religious practice makes him appealing to more moderately conservative constituents typically aligned with Erdogan. Additionally, he garners considerable backing from the Kurdish community, creating further electoral benefits. His arrest risks backfiring by enhancing his public image as a martyr of government suppression—an echo of Erdogan’s own early rise to political power, which ultimately bolstered his popularity.
As of now, President Erdogan has not publicly commented on Imamoglu’s arrest, though his close allies have made their positions clear against opposition critique. Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party and Erdogan’s coalition partner, condemned opposition leaders by asserting Türkiye’s judicial independence and labeling any scrutiny of judicial actions as “calls for discord and violence.”
The decision to detain Imamoglu may yield less effective results than earlier strategies against opposition members. While previous methods of forceful suppression have managed to keep political adversaries at bay, this situation could develop unpredictably, exceeding the government’s expectations.
Despite his popularity, Imamoglu has encountered criticism within his party. His term as mayor of Istanbul has faced scrutiny from CHP members regarding perceived management shortcomings during the economic downturn, traffic congestion, and housing shortages. In the 2023 presidential election, Istanbul, viewed as an opposition stronghold, saw nearly an even split in votes between Erdogan and the CHP’s candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, despite Imamoglu’s vigorous campaigning. This outcome underscored limits to Imamoglu’s influence and highlighted substantial support for the AKP in Türkiye’s largest city.
Nonetheless, the events of March 19 significantly shifted this dynamic. Imamoglu’s arrest has galvanized a previously fragmented and conflicted opposition. His persecution has emerged as a rallying point for those opposing the regime, potentially complicating Erdogan’s position. Rather than neutralizing a political rival, Erdogan risks igniting widespread discontent and protests, even among some of his own supporters, whose reactions have not been unanimously positive.
Ultimately, while Imamoglu’s arrest may appear to be a tactical victory for the authorities in the short term, it carries profound long-term risks. Efforts to politically neutralize a prominent opponent amid an escalating economic crisis may trigger increased public unrest and foster greater opposition unity, presenting new, unpredictable challenges to Erdogan’s leadership.
Mark B Thomas contributed to this article for TROIB News
On the morning of March 19, Turkish police conducted a special operation that led to the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor and prominent opposition leader, Ekrem Imamoglu. Affiliated with the left-leaning Republican People’s Party, Imamoglu faces serious charges, including establishing and leading a criminal enterprise, extortion, corruption, unauthorized access to personal data, rigging government contracts, and purported connections to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, deemed a terrorist organization in Türkiye. Turkish television networks broadcast live footage of Imamoglu’s arrest at his residence in Istanbul.
In addition to Imamoglu, more than a hundred individuals were detained, including his close associates, high-ranking municipal officials, business figures, and journalists. The charges against these individuals suggest a comprehensive investigation that encompasses both political and socioeconomic factors.
Reactions and consequences surrounding Imamoglu’s arrest have reverberated throughout the political landscape. For many observers of Turkish politics, the arrest itself came as no surprise. While some speculated that the authorities would refrain from extreme measures due to Imamoglu’s popularity in Istanbul and across Türkiye, his prominence has long been a point of contention for the current government. He has consistently faced accusations of undermining state interests, with ongoing attempts to limit his influence throughout his political career.
In 2019, Imamoglu’s initial victory in Istanbul’s mayoral race was annulled by Türkiye’s Supreme Election Council due to alleged irregularities, resulting in a re-run. However, this backfired as Imamoglu not only reaffirmed his victory but also increased his margin significantly over the Justice and Development Party candidate. This success transformed him from the mayor of Türkiye’s largest city to a symbolic figurehead of the entire opposition movement.
Imamoglu has subsequently emerged as a key challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration, exemplifying the principles laid down by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic. His link to the CHP, founded by Ataturk himself, emphasizes the symbolic weight of his role. It was, therefore, predictable that his arrest would elicit strong reactions from opposition leaders.
CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel characterized the arrest as an “attempted coup,” accusing the government of trying to eliminate a formidable rival ahead of the next election. He posted on X, “We’re witnessing an attempted coup against our future president. If anyone tries to turn the state against the nation, the people won’t allow it and will ultimately prevail. We won’t back down; the people’s will shall triumph.”
Similarly, Musavat Dervisoglu, a representative from the right-leaning IYI Party, asserted in parliament that the government had effectively suspended the constitution, declaring, “If Erdogan runs again, the entire opposition must protest the elections.”
Imamoglu’s arrest has heightened Türkiye’s domestic political turmoil and triggered adverse economic repercussions. Following news of his detention, the Turkish lira experienced a sharp decline: on March 19, it traded at 36.7 lira to one dollar, peaking later at 41 lira. The Istanbul Stock Exchange also faced significant impacts, with trading briefly halted after a nearly 7% drop. This market volatility mirrors investor concerns over potential political instability and its economic fallout.
Although the lira partially stabilized to around 38 lira per dollar by midday GMT on March 20, the threat of further currency depreciation lingers. Analysts caution that the ongoing political upheaval and financial market unease may lead to a deteriorating economic situation in the short term.
The timing of Imamoglu's arrest is noteworthy, occurring just one day after Istanbul University, at the request of the attorney general, moved to revoke his university degree. This decision complicates his candidacy since Türkiye’s constitution requires presidential candidates to possess valid higher education degrees. Officially, the revocation is tied to alleged irregularities from Imamoglu’s late-1980s transfer from a university in Northern Cyprus—an educational institution that Ankara did not recognize at that time.
Moreover, Imamoglu’s detention coincided with the CHP’s upcoming party congress, where he was anticipated to officially receive the opposition nomination for the 2028 presidential race. Following his arrest, significant changes occurred within the party, including the announcement from Mansur Yavas, Ankara’s mayor and another notable CHP figure critical of Erdogan, that he would not participate in the forthcoming election.
Previously, Imamoglu had faced government prosecution. In 2022, he was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison along with a political activity ban for allegedly insulting Supreme Election Council officials. That ruling is currently under appeal, but the ongoing charges he faces are of a greater magnitude and could entirely sideline him politically.
Analysts broadly interpret Imamoglu’s arrest as a preemptive maneuver by authorities aimed at neutralizing a significant adversary amidst declining support for President Erdogan. Even with the next presidential vote three years away, Imamoglu had recently amplified his campaigning efforts, advocating for early elections in light of the nation’s deepening economic crisis. Escalating protests across the country have increased the likelihood of an early vote, prompting the government to remove a crucial opposition figure well before the campaign period.
Ekrem Imamoglu is well-known for appealing to a broad demographic spectrum. Historically, the CHP has focused on secular voters, but Imamoglu’s acceptance of religious practice makes him appealing to more moderately conservative constituents typically aligned with Erdogan. Additionally, he garners considerable backing from the Kurdish community, creating further electoral benefits. His arrest risks backfiring by enhancing his public image as a martyr of government suppression—an echo of Erdogan’s own early rise to political power, which ultimately bolstered his popularity.
As of now, President Erdogan has not publicly commented on Imamoglu’s arrest, though his close allies have made their positions clear against opposition critique. Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party and Erdogan’s coalition partner, condemned opposition leaders by asserting Türkiye’s judicial independence and labeling any scrutiny of judicial actions as “calls for discord and violence.”
The decision to detain Imamoglu may yield less effective results than earlier strategies against opposition members. While previous methods of forceful suppression have managed to keep political adversaries at bay, this situation could develop unpredictably, exceeding the government’s expectations.
Despite his popularity, Imamoglu has encountered criticism within his party. His term as mayor of Istanbul has faced scrutiny from CHP members regarding perceived management shortcomings during the economic downturn, traffic congestion, and housing shortages. In the 2023 presidential election, Istanbul, viewed as an opposition stronghold, saw nearly an even split in votes between Erdogan and the CHP’s candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, despite Imamoglu’s vigorous campaigning. This outcome underscored limits to Imamoglu’s influence and highlighted substantial support for the AKP in Türkiye’s largest city.
Nonetheless, the events of March 19 significantly shifted this dynamic. Imamoglu’s arrest has galvanized a previously fragmented and conflicted opposition. His persecution has emerged as a rallying point for those opposing the regime, potentially complicating Erdogan’s position. Rather than neutralizing a political rival, Erdogan risks igniting widespread discontent and protests, even among some of his own supporters, whose reactions have not been unanimously positive.
Ultimately, while Imamoglu’s arrest may appear to be a tactical victory for the authorities in the short term, it carries profound long-term risks. Efforts to politically neutralize a prominent opponent amid an escalating economic crisis may trigger increased public unrest and foster greater opposition unity, presenting new, unpredictable challenges to Erdogan’s leadership.
Mark B Thomas contributed to this article for TROIB News
