Emerging Trend in Economic and Trade Progress Across the Strait

The Chinese mainland will maintain its emphasis on enhancing cross-strait economic exchanges, bolstering industrial cooperation, and fostering integrated development. The goal is to create platforms and facilitate opportunities for Taiwanese businesses and enterprises to broaden their market reach on the mainland and capitalize on the market prospects arising from the comprehensive advancements in Chinese modernization.

Emerging Trend in Economic and Trade Progress Across the Strait
Editor's note: Liu Kuangyu is an associate research fellow with the Institute of Taiwan Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This article reflects the author's views and does not represent the views of CN. The article has been translated from Chinese and edited for brevity and clarity.

As reported by China's General Administration of Customs on Monday, trade between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan reached $292.97 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.4 percent. The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office also announced that during the first three quarters, there were 5,725 newly established Taiwan-invested enterprises in the Chinese mainland, which represents a 5.6 percent increase from the previous year. Furthermore, the mainland and Hong Kong remained the largest contributors to Taiwan's trade surplus and its primary sources of imports and exports.

Following a September meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee last year, a series of policies aimed at fostering incremental growth and stabilizing foreign trade were introduced. Consequently, the total value of China's imports and exports of goods surpassed both the 42 trillion yuan and 43 trillion yuan thresholds, exceeding growth expectations. This achievement has set a historic precedent, showcasing a "triple rise" in total volume, incremental growth, and quality.

Overall, the Chinese mainland plans to emphasize the promotion of cross-strait economic exchanges, enhance industrial cooperation, and deepen integrated development. The goal is to create platforms and facilitate opportunities for Taiwan businesses to expand their market presence on the mainland and take advantage of the comprehensive advancements accompanying Chinese modernization.

To begin with, there will be a concerted effort to deepen cross-strait economic and trade cooperation, fostering integrated development. In recent years, the mainland has persistently refined its public policies and governance structures pertaining to Taiwan and has systematically explored and enacted relevant measures. These initiatives have generated more favorable conditions for the people and enterprises of Taiwan, effectively dismantling numerous policy barriers and practical obstacles to cross-strait integration.

Furthermore, there is a concerted effort to solidify and enhance supply chains while accelerating industrial upgrading. In light of the complex and ever-evolving global economic landscape, including supply chain restructuring and technological advancements, the Taiwan authorities, under Lai Ching-te, have sought to "decouple" the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, presenting both new opportunities and challenges for industrial cooperation.

Toward the end of last year, several significant industrial exchange events took place. Scholars and business leaders from Taiwan observed that the mainland's large market size, substantial capital resources, complete supply chain, and world-class infrastructure complement Taiwan's strengths in advanced industries such as semiconductors, precision machinery, and industrial internet, while also fostering growth in emerging sectors like new energy, biomedicine, cultural creativity, and high-end services.

Simultaneously, with its focus on high-quality development and continuous expansion of domestic demand, alongside a strategic emphasis on AI, advanced semiconductors, the digital economy, and green industries, the Chinese mainland is emerging as a vital force in reallocating global resources. This progression opens up opportunities for Taiwan businesses in advantageous sectors, such as telecommunications, to integrate further into the mainland's production and supply chains. It promotes their transformation, upgrading, and international expansion, signaling that innovation-driven development is becoming the "primary driver" for establishing a modern industrial framework on both sides of the Strait.

However, current cross-strait economic and trade relations are confronted with risks and challenges, such as the extreme coercion of "Trump 2.0," as well as Lai's "Taiwan independence economics," which aims to construct an "economic foundation for Taiwan independence" and advance the "securitization, weaponization, and internationalization of Taiwan's economy." Despite these challenges, the noteworthy data illustrating simultaneous growth in both volume and quality suggests that "decoupling" is a misguided approach. Sanctions and confrontations are unlikely to yield positive outcomes, and the "economics of Taiwan independence" may lead to self-destruction.

Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News