Democrats Face Setback in New York as Trump Significantly Boosts His Margin in the Empire State
The former Republican president engaged with voters by emphasizing themes of border security and economic transformation.
TroibNews 
NEW YORK — Democrats are witnessing a decline in their stronghold on New York.
Donald Trump secured a victory in a suburban county on Long Island Tuesday night, outperforming the Republican Congress member who narrowly lost to a Democratic opponent. He also gained traction with Latino voters in the Bronx and increased support in immigrant-heavy areas of Queens.
In a decisive victory against Vice President Kamala Harris across the nation, Trump not only excelled in Rust Belt and Sun Belt states but also garnered substantial support in a typically blue state and a city he once labeled as “a city in decline,” even after being convicted of 34 felonies earlier this year.
With 7.9 million votes counted, Trump ultimately lost New York state with 44 percent compared to Harris' 56 percent. However, this represented a 12-point improvement over his previous losing margin against President Joe Biden four years ago. He also succeeded in narrowing the vote gap in New York City, earning 30 percent—up 7 points from 2020.
His strategy involved appealing to diverse groups in urban and suburban contexts, focusing on both blue and red neighborhoods, and resonating with voters of various ethnic backgrounds, such as whites, Asians, and Latinos. His message critiqued Biden’s management of the southern border and inflation while also addressing calls from far-left Democrats to defund police departments. Trump's campaign was boosted by Jewish voters' frustration regarding the war in Gaza, continuous GOP advertisements highlighting Democrats’ handling of transgender issues, and the supportive stance of the New York Post in its editorial and news coverage over the years.
“The frustrations of Latino voters, and may I add Asian voters and even perhaps some Black voters, is the Democratic Party’s inability to deliver on bread-and-butter issues,” noted state Sen. and mayoral candidate Jessica Ramos, a Queens Democrat. “They feel like they work and work and work and it doesn’t really bear fruit. They came to this country to buy a house and provide for their families and well, that’s getting harder every year.”
Trump saw notable gains in Queens, where he secured 37 percent of the vote, a rise from 27 percent in 2020 and 22 percent in 2016. In the Bronx, which has a large Latino population, his support more than doubled; Biden had previously defeated him by 69 points in 2020, but Harris's margin of victory shrank by 22 points on Tuesday—the largest shift in any county in New York.
“People who live paycheck to paycheck are hit hardest by inflation,” said U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from the Bronx. He emphasized the disconnect felt by voters in higher income areas who can focus on abstract issues while lower-income voters struggle with more pressing concerns. “When you are college educated and higher income, you can be concerned with issues like democracy and culture. But when you are struggling to put food on the table, the cost of living is existential.”
Torres commented on how Biden's delayed response to immigration concerns and the repercussions of inflation affected the election outcomes. He asserted that voting behaviors now reflect gender, educational levels, and class rather than race alone.
J.C. Polanco, an attorney and assistant professor at the University of Mount Saint Vincent, observed Trump’s support was visibly increasing in the Bronx. “I’m driving through the Bronx, and I see pickup trucks with Trump flags,” he remarked. “It’s as if he’s the Yankees. No sports team has ever had the kind of merch this man has.”
Polanco, having switched from the Republican Party to independent, found it challenging to sway Latino Trump supporters to favor Harris. “He was a big FU to the system for them. You could explain to them all the reasons why he’s awful, all the reasons why he’s a terrible person,” he noted. “This guy is a cultural phenomenon. I don’t know how often they come, I don’t know if it’s once in a generation, but I’ve never seen anything like it in my life.”
The relatively sizable Jewish population in New York has expressed dissatisfaction with campus demonstrations against Israel’s actions in Gaza, which has consequentially affected support for Democratic candidates. Trump was notably successful in orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn, outperforming Harris in Borough Park by 71 points.
“This is not a surprise to those who have been watching this, and how they’re reassessing their support for political candidates in a post-Oct. 7 world, and how they’re worried about antisemitism,” political strategist Maury Litwack explained. His organization’s polling indicated a decrease in Jewish support for Democrats in crucial House districts, with antisemitism being the primary concern.
“You’ve seen the erosion start to happen and it's [been] speeding up significantly since Oct. 7,” he added. “This has been building for over a year and it’s not surprising that Jewish voters came out and did not give their vote in historically large numbers that they typically do.”
Voters in New York City's eastern suburbs have shown a trend toward Republican candidates during recent elections, driven by worries about public safety and immigration.
Trump's wins on Long Island—capturing both Suffolk and Nassau counties and significantly exceeding his 2020 performance—set the stage for a scenario where a Republican candidate could potentially unify suburban and working-class voters of color to challenge the Democrats’ grip on state offices.
“If what we’re seeing is a permanent realignment of portions of the Democratic base joining the Republicans, it makes it more possible that if everything goes right for a Republican they have a good shot of winning a statewide race,” said Larry Levy, a Hofstra University expert on suburban politics.
This pattern of Trump’s enhancements throughout the state mirrors trends from previous elections. The close gubernatorial race in 2022 had been considered an anomaly, yet this week’s presidential election results echoed similar trends across New York.
Republican Lee Zeldin garnered 28.9 percent of the vote in Brooklyn during the 2022 gubernatorial race, while Trump achieved 28.5 percent there on Tuesday. Zeldin’s 2022 support in Queens rose to 37 percent from 18 percent in the previous gubernatorial election; Trump received 38 percent in the same borough.
In Nassau County, historically a reliable indicator for state outcomes, Zeldin won 55 percent, whereas Trump garnered 52 percent, marking him the first Republican presidential nominee to secure the county in 36 years—despite Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s narrow loss to Democrat Laura Gillen.
The coalition that has been instrumental in maintaining Democrats’ unbroken success in statewide races since 2004 is based on an alliance between urban voters and suburban demographics in areas like Westchester. However, as Republicans have evidenced their capability to breach this coalition, especially among urban ethnic groups, it indicates a shift in the political landscape.
“President Trump has shown that with a common-sense message about keeping people safe ... there are opportunities in places we historically might not have done well in,” state Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt stated. “This is a bit of a realignment, which is a more permanent reality.”
Republicans are buoyed by these developments in New York, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1 and lack significant institutional authority. The traditional conservative and working-class Democrat base is shifting towards Trump-aligned voters, many of whom feel alienated by a liberal cultural elite, remarked Gavin Wax, president of the New York Young Republicans.
“The Democrats became the party of the Manhattan liberal elite rather than their working-class base,” he argued. “We’re seeing a state that’s in flux, a state that’s changing.”
Conversely, some Democrats in New York downplayed the prospect of a sustained migration toward the right.
“Trump didn’t gain votes so much as Democrats who voted for Biden didn’t vote,” said Mike Gianaris, deputy leader of the Democratic-controlled state Senate.
Biden secured 5.24 million votes in New York during the 2020 election, whereas Harris received only 4.3 million this year. During the same timeframe, Trump increased his vote tallies by about 181,000.
As she reflected on the results that overshadowed an otherwise strong night for Democrats statewide, a pensive Gov. Kathy Hochul commented, “Democrats should never take any vote for granted.”
Janaki Chadha contributed to this report.
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
Donald Trump secured a victory in a suburban county on Long Island Tuesday night, outperforming the Republican Congress member who narrowly lost to a Democratic opponent. He also gained traction with Latino voters in the Bronx and increased support in immigrant-heavy areas of Queens.
In a decisive victory against Vice President Kamala Harris across the nation, Trump not only excelled in Rust Belt and Sun Belt states but also garnered substantial support in a typically blue state and a city he once labeled as “a city in decline,” even after being convicted of 34 felonies earlier this year.
With 7.9 million votes counted, Trump ultimately lost New York state with 44 percent compared to Harris' 56 percent. However, this represented a 12-point improvement over his previous losing margin against President Joe Biden four years ago. He also succeeded in narrowing the vote gap in New York City, earning 30 percent—up 7 points from 2020.
His strategy involved appealing to diverse groups in urban and suburban contexts, focusing on both blue and red neighborhoods, and resonating with voters of various ethnic backgrounds, such as whites, Asians, and Latinos. His message critiqued Biden’s management of the southern border and inflation while also addressing calls from far-left Democrats to defund police departments. Trump's campaign was boosted by Jewish voters' frustration regarding the war in Gaza, continuous GOP advertisements highlighting Democrats’ handling of transgender issues, and the supportive stance of the New York Post in its editorial and news coverage over the years.
“The frustrations of Latino voters, and may I add Asian voters and even perhaps some Black voters, is the Democratic Party’s inability to deliver on bread-and-butter issues,” noted state Sen. and mayoral candidate Jessica Ramos, a Queens Democrat. “They feel like they work and work and work and it doesn’t really bear fruit. They came to this country to buy a house and provide for their families and well, that’s getting harder every year.”
Trump saw notable gains in Queens, where he secured 37 percent of the vote, a rise from 27 percent in 2020 and 22 percent in 2016. In the Bronx, which has a large Latino population, his support more than doubled; Biden had previously defeated him by 69 points in 2020, but Harris's margin of victory shrank by 22 points on Tuesday—the largest shift in any county in New York.
“People who live paycheck to paycheck are hit hardest by inflation,” said U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from the Bronx. He emphasized the disconnect felt by voters in higher income areas who can focus on abstract issues while lower-income voters struggle with more pressing concerns. “When you are college educated and higher income, you can be concerned with issues like democracy and culture. But when you are struggling to put food on the table, the cost of living is existential.”
Torres commented on how Biden's delayed response to immigration concerns and the repercussions of inflation affected the election outcomes. He asserted that voting behaviors now reflect gender, educational levels, and class rather than race alone.
J.C. Polanco, an attorney and assistant professor at the University of Mount Saint Vincent, observed Trump’s support was visibly increasing in the Bronx. “I’m driving through the Bronx, and I see pickup trucks with Trump flags,” he remarked. “It’s as if he’s the Yankees. No sports team has ever had the kind of merch this man has.”
Polanco, having switched from the Republican Party to independent, found it challenging to sway Latino Trump supporters to favor Harris. “He was a big FU to the system for them. You could explain to them all the reasons why he’s awful, all the reasons why he’s a terrible person,” he noted. “This guy is a cultural phenomenon. I don’t know how often they come, I don’t know if it’s once in a generation, but I’ve never seen anything like it in my life.”
The relatively sizable Jewish population in New York has expressed dissatisfaction with campus demonstrations against Israel’s actions in Gaza, which has consequentially affected support for Democratic candidates. Trump was notably successful in orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn, outperforming Harris in Borough Park by 71 points.
“This is not a surprise to those who have been watching this, and how they’re reassessing their support for political candidates in a post-Oct. 7 world, and how they’re worried about antisemitism,” political strategist Maury Litwack explained. His organization’s polling indicated a decrease in Jewish support for Democrats in crucial House districts, with antisemitism being the primary concern.
“You’ve seen the erosion start to happen and it's [been] speeding up significantly since Oct. 7,” he added. “This has been building for over a year and it’s not surprising that Jewish voters came out and did not give their vote in historically large numbers that they typically do.”
Voters in New York City's eastern suburbs have shown a trend toward Republican candidates during recent elections, driven by worries about public safety and immigration.
Trump's wins on Long Island—capturing both Suffolk and Nassau counties and significantly exceeding his 2020 performance—set the stage for a scenario where a Republican candidate could potentially unify suburban and working-class voters of color to challenge the Democrats’ grip on state offices.
“If what we’re seeing is a permanent realignment of portions of the Democratic base joining the Republicans, it makes it more possible that if everything goes right for a Republican they have a good shot of winning a statewide race,” said Larry Levy, a Hofstra University expert on suburban politics.
This pattern of Trump’s enhancements throughout the state mirrors trends from previous elections. The close gubernatorial race in 2022 had been considered an anomaly, yet this week’s presidential election results echoed similar trends across New York.
Republican Lee Zeldin garnered 28.9 percent of the vote in Brooklyn during the 2022 gubernatorial race, while Trump achieved 28.5 percent there on Tuesday. Zeldin’s 2022 support in Queens rose to 37 percent from 18 percent in the previous gubernatorial election; Trump received 38 percent in the same borough.
In Nassau County, historically a reliable indicator for state outcomes, Zeldin won 55 percent, whereas Trump garnered 52 percent, marking him the first Republican presidential nominee to secure the county in 36 years—despite Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s narrow loss to Democrat Laura Gillen.
The coalition that has been instrumental in maintaining Democrats’ unbroken success in statewide races since 2004 is based on an alliance between urban voters and suburban demographics in areas like Westchester. However, as Republicans have evidenced their capability to breach this coalition, especially among urban ethnic groups, it indicates a shift in the political landscape.
“President Trump has shown that with a common-sense message about keeping people safe ... there are opportunities in places we historically might not have done well in,” state Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt stated. “This is a bit of a realignment, which is a more permanent reality.”
Republicans are buoyed by these developments in New York, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1 and lack significant institutional authority. The traditional conservative and working-class Democrat base is shifting towards Trump-aligned voters, many of whom feel alienated by a liberal cultural elite, remarked Gavin Wax, president of the New York Young Republicans.
“The Democrats became the party of the Manhattan liberal elite rather than their working-class base,” he argued. “We’re seeing a state that’s in flux, a state that’s changing.”
Conversely, some Democrats in New York downplayed the prospect of a sustained migration toward the right.
“Trump didn’t gain votes so much as Democrats who voted for Biden didn’t vote,” said Mike Gianaris, deputy leader of the Democratic-controlled state Senate.
Biden secured 5.24 million votes in New York during the 2020 election, whereas Harris received only 4.3 million this year. During the same timeframe, Trump increased his vote tallies by about 181,000.
As she reflected on the results that overshadowed an otherwise strong night for Democrats statewide, a pensive Gov. Kathy Hochul commented, “Democrats should never take any vote for granted.”
Janaki Chadha contributed to this report.
Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News
