As the U.N. turns: Relationships to watch as world leaders gather

President Joe Biden loves to say that foreign policy is an extension of personal relationships.

The annual U.N. General Assembly meeting of world leaders, then, must be the ultimate family reunion. Or maybe it’s high school?

Either way, you have love, rivalry and endless drama, but with the fate of the world at stake.

A number of prominent world leaders are expected to skip this year’s event, including those of France, Britain, Russia and China. Still, there are many interesting dynamics to watch among heads of state, diplomats, business and NGO leaders, and even a royal or two, who are showing up.

Attendees are expected to include Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Here are some of the relationships to watch in New York this week:

Biden and his Middle Eastern counterparts

The U.N. offers Biden an ideal venue to show that, despite his effort to shift the U.S. focus to China, he’s not abandoning another key region.

The White House's outline for Biden's schedule so far doesn't include many bilateral meetings with Middle Eastern leaders. But he may still encounter some of them, such as Turkey’s Erdogan and the leader of Qatar, in less formal settings such as receptions.

One potential topic? A grand peace deal the Biden team is pushing that includes the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Biden is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York. This is actually a let-down for Netanyahu, who wants a White House invite.

But Biden is wary of the Netanyahu-led government’s efforts to overhaul Israel’s judiciary, which many Israelis are protesting as undemocratic. He appears unwilling to ask the Israeli leader to visit Washington for now.

At the G20 summit this month, Biden shook hands with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the latest hint the de facto Saudi ruler is back in America’s good graces despite his human rights abuses. (It’s unclear if the crown prince will be in New York.)

Biden’s Middle East outreach comes as China has offered itself as a potential peacemaker for the region. Beijing has already pushed through a diplomatic rapprochement between rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia and even suggested it can solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Also at the G20, Biden helped unveil a major infrastructure initiative that connects India, the Middle East and Europe. Expect lots of chatter about that plan in New York, too.

Russia’s foreign minister and countries who won’t take sides

Zelenskyy is planning an in-person charm offensive at this year’s gathering. He’s seeking as many in-person meetings with Latin American, Asian and African leaders as he can, in a bid to convince these countries to side with Ukraine against Russia.

How Russia responds may depend on which diplomats are willing to be seen with the Russian representative, likely Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Odds are that Lavrov will also try to score many such meetings, at least to ensure certain nations stay neutral.

Last year, Lavrov didn’t have a very full schedule, something noted by U.S. officials. But Zelenskyy didn’t attend in person last year.

World leaders who meet Ukraine’s president this year may feel compelled to see Lavrov, too, if they’re intent on avoiding taking sides.

Washington and the coup-hit African states

As U.S. officials mingle with their foreign counterparts, the odds are unusually high that they’ll run into a coup-backer from Africa.

A string of military takeovers has shaken the continent, with Niger and Gabon falling victim in just the last few months.

Whether a junta can send a representative to the General Assembly depends on everything from the decisions of a U.N. credentials committee to the declared loyalties of the country’s existing U.N. delegation.

The Taliban, for instance, have yet to get U.N. recognition as Afghanistan’s government. But last year, a Malian “prime minister” appointed by a junta that had overthrown the country’s democratic government delivered a speech at the annual gathering.

It’s not clear who will speak on behalf of Gabon or Niger at this year’s event.

U.S. officials don’t appear to have a single standard approach for how to interact with coup-hit nations in New York.

Their thinking is complicated by the U.S. refusal so far to admit that Gabon or Niger have undergone coups. (Doing so puts military and economic aid at risk, and the Biden administration insists the situations are fluid.)

To top that off, Gabon is a current member of the U.N. Security Council, meaning the U.S. may need its vote now and then.

“My guess is [the U.S. will] approach diplomatic engagements with great flexibility, to only do those meetings with coup leaders where there’s some possibility of moving an agenda forward,” said Peter Yeo, a senior official at the U.N. Foundation who closely tracks the American delegation.

China and the Europeans

At the G20, Chinese Premier Li Qiang urged European countries not to walk away from Beijing, saying “interdependence should not be equated with insecurity.”

Beijing is likely to hammer the same message at the U.N. as it tries to separate European nations from the United States. China’s economy is sputtering, making its leaders all the more worried about losing trade.

The European Union is adopting a more wary stance on China, including a “de-risking” policy that affects the types of trade between the bloc and the Asian giant.

China’s paramount leader, Xi Jinping, is sending Han Zheng, a largely ceremonial vice president, as his representative (a surprise to many who were expecting Foreign Minister Wang Yi).

According to China’s foreign ministry, Han will meet with “leaders of relevant countries.” It did not elaborate.

Beijing’s diplomatic footing in Europe has been slipping. China’s 17+1 grouping of Central and Eastern European counties has shrunk to 14+1 after the exit of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. In May, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský told POLITICO that the grouping had “neither substance nor future.” Recent indications that Italy may quit China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative international infrastructure development program has added to Beijing’s worries.

On a multi-leg trip that took him to Asia this month, Biden shored up relations with some of China’s neighbors. But he also said during that trip that he doesn’t want to “contain” China, the latest sign he wants to ease escalating tensions.

It’s worth watching whether European leaders adopt similar language.

The U.N. chief and the member states

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is trying to get the U.N.’s 193 members to focus more on long-term planetary challenges, such as climate change and artificial intelligence.

He’s having limited success.

The big powers are busy warring with each other (even if indirectly). Smaller countries, meanwhile, are dealing with more immediate crises, including the economic fallout from the clashes of the world powers. That includes disruptions to food supplies caused by the Russian war on Ukraine.

“There is also just zero trust among U.N. members now,” said Richard Gowan, an International Crisis Group analyst with deep connections at the U.N. “A lot of non-Western countries believe that Western countries are giving up on development aid and fighting climate change.”

Western leaders deny this, and to some extent it’s a matter of degree.

Guterres is planning a “Summit of the Future” in 2024 — a venue for countries to find common ground on issues such as the digital economy. But amid these and other Guterres efforts, some smaller countries are feeling overloaded, Gowan said.

“You hear diplomats complaining about their limited bandwidth a lot,” Gowan said.

A senior U.N. official, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue, acknowledged that there is a capacity challenge among U.N. diplomats.

It’s one reason the Summit of the Future was pushed to next year instead of this year, when it would have competed for attention with a summit focused on the Sustainable Development Goals, a longstanding initiative with intentions including reducing poverty.

The official argued, however, that there’s broad agreement that the long-term challenges Guterres wants to highlight, such as climate change, cannot be ignored.

Phelim Kine contributed to this report.