Why JD Vance is Missing from Prominent Ohio House Races
In July, House Republicans expressed that the vice presidential candidate “sets Ohio on fire” and would deliver a “real lift” in important races. However, he is not being utilized in this pivotal battleground district.
TroibNews 
TOLEDO, Ohio — In July, Republicans expressed enthusiasm about Donald Trump’s choice of Sen. JD Vance as his running mate, believing it would strengthen their chances in competitive congressional districts across Ohio. However, three months later, the anticipated benefits seem elusive in one of the state’s toughest elections, as the GOP seeks to unseat Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in the House.
Kaptur's seat was identified as a prime target for Republican gains this election cycle. Factors seemed favorable for the GOP: a newly drawn, more conservative district and the absence of a candidate with major personal issues—concerns that plagued the party in 2022 when Kaptur achieved a 13-point victory.
Republicans expected Vance to provide the crucial support needed for their campaign. Shortly after Trump’s nomination of Vance, House GOP campaign arm Chair Richard Hudson remarked that Vance "sets Ohio on fire" and would provide a “real lift” in key House races.
However, a recent poll shows Kaptur leading Republican Derek Merrin by 10 points, with Vance playing a minimal role in the race. His presence is notably missing from local billboards that prominently feature Trump, Merrin, and GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno. Moreover, despite significant outside spending, Vance has not appeared in Republican advertising on broadcast, according to a PMG analysis of AdImpact data. During more than a dozen discussions in the Rust Belt district following Vance's strong debate performance, many local voters and political representatives expressed indifference or negativity toward him.
“I don't think [Trump and Vance] have very good character. The things they say, like just last night on the debate. … A lot of the things [Vance] was saying, just like Trump, were outrageous and inflammatory,” stated Stephanie Garcia, a 55-year-old insurance worker in downtown Toledo who supports Kaptur. “Business wise, it might be best for the country, but character is a big deal for me.”
UAW Local 14 President Tony Totty added, “I literally have members who told me: ‘I'm voting for Trump, but I'm splitting the ticket. I'm going to vote for Marcy, and I'm going to vote for Sen. [Sherrod] Brown.’ Because they see them in action.” Even among voters backing Merrin and Trump, Vance largely remained absent in their decision-making process, with some unaware of him prior to the debate.
“I didn't really know anything about [Vance], even though we're both from Ohio, but I thought he really did good [in the debate],” remarked Darlene Fisher outside a Kroger grocery store, noting her support for Merrin as “Marcy's been in there too long. I know her personally. She needs to retire.”
While GOP leaders celebrated Vance's selection in July, rank-and-file Republicans expressed reservations about his impact as a senator from a solid-red state aligned with Trump's political views. If Vance isn’t being utilized as an asset in Toledo, it raises questions about where he might benefit the party during this election cycle.
Meanwhile, Kaptur capitalized on a now-famous moment from last year’s UAW strike, in which she questioned Vance at the picket line: “First time here?” Among other strategies, she is deliberately keeping a distance from the vice presidential candidate, trying to insulate her campaign from the highly partisan atmosphere at the national level.
Reflecting on that moment, Kaptur said with enthusiasm: “What does he know about the auto industry and the trucking industry?” She has successfully maintained strong community ties in a district that favored Trump by 3 points in 2020, making her influence evident after four decades of representation. Next to a display at a local county office titled “Lucas County’s Wall of Friends,” Kaptur spoke with PMG, underscoring her long-standing connections to the community.
After Vance’s strong debate performance, Kaptur downplayed the potential impact he might have on the election: “I think he has high ambitions, and so he's been successful in getting elected in Ohio, but he hasn't had time, really to have any results.” Vance was elected to the Senate two years ago and had built a career primarily outside of politics.
Additionally, Republicans face a challenge with Democrats' change at the top of the presidential ticket this summer, which diminished their top-of-the-ticket vulnerabilities. A late-July poll showed Trump and Harris effectively tied in the district after President Joe Biden exited the race, whereas Biden had a 36 percent favorability rating compared to a 60 percent unfavorable rating. Vance, who narrowly lost this district in his 2022 Senate race, recorded a 48 percent unfavorable rating.
Despite these challenges, Republicans remain optimistic about the district shifting in their favor. However, ticket-splitting between presidential and House candidates is challenging, and Kaptur's 2022 victory was partly due to an ineffective GOP candidate, J.R. Majewski. “After 41 years in Congress with almost nothing to show for it, Marcy Kaptur has left Ohioans behind and Derek Merrin is strategically positioned to capitalize on the Trump/Vance momentum — flipping this seat red and ending Kaptur's tenure of inaction,” stated Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the House Republicans’ campaign arm.
Merrin did not grant an interview but provided a statement emphasizing his run is aimed at offering the “fresh leadership Northwest Ohio needs to fight for those in our community who are truly hurting due to the skyrocketing inflation of the Biden/Kaptur economy.” He expressed pride in supporting the Trump/Vance ticket, claiming their policies would prioritize the American people and restore the American dream.
Vance’s spokesperson, William Martin, asserted that Ohio Republicans are "energized" and confident in their prospects for November, indicating Vance’s commitment to supporting Trump in the White House as he travels across the country spreading the America First message.
Interestingly, Vance isn’t prominently involved in other competitive races in the state, missing as a surrogate for Moreno in the Senate race and not appearing in the Northeast Ohio congressional battle where first-term Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes seeks re-election. Some Republicans defended the lack of emphasis on Vance, suggesting his focus would be more beneficial in battleground states.
“He's got a lot on his plate,” said Republican state Rep. Josh Williams, who represents a Toledo-area district. “He’s been here advocating for change here in Ohio. I believe that there's enough momentum here in Ohio for a true shift in politics here.”
Much of Merrin’s critique of Kaptur revolves around immigration issues, with Republican ads branding her as a career politician. “Marcy Kaptur has been in Congress for 40 years, 40 years of voting for open borders,” claimed a recent spot from the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Kaptur, like many Democrats in swing districts this election cycle, pointed to the bipartisan border bill that was derailed by Republicans as part of her efforts to address migration issues at the southern border. Embracing her lengthy congressional tenure, she stated, “I think one of the problems the country is having right now is people don't stay in elected office long enough.” She highlighted persistent regional challenges like Great Lakes water quality and rail infrastructure, stressing the need for experienced leadership: “We can't have green people being elected at every level who come with no experience in governance.”
Her seniority has bolstered her visibility, but it may also be a double-edged sword. Robert Voltz, a 42-year-old Jeep worker ambulating with his dog, expressed uncertainty over the House race: "I know who Marcy is. I don’t know who her opponent is.” Susan Hinkel, departing from Kroger, expressed frustration, stating it was “time for her to go home.”
As for the 78-year-old Kaptur, she has offered no clues about retirement should she win re-election. “I don't know that answer, but the seniority I hold belongs to the people I represent,” she said. “They stuck with me through thick and thin, and I hope they'll say the same about me someday, that I stuck with them through thick and thin.”
Debra A Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
Kaptur's seat was identified as a prime target for Republican gains this election cycle. Factors seemed favorable for the GOP: a newly drawn, more conservative district and the absence of a candidate with major personal issues—concerns that plagued the party in 2022 when Kaptur achieved a 13-point victory.
Republicans expected Vance to provide the crucial support needed for their campaign. Shortly after Trump’s nomination of Vance, House GOP campaign arm Chair Richard Hudson remarked that Vance "sets Ohio on fire" and would provide a “real lift” in key House races.
However, a recent poll shows Kaptur leading Republican Derek Merrin by 10 points, with Vance playing a minimal role in the race. His presence is notably missing from local billboards that prominently feature Trump, Merrin, and GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno. Moreover, despite significant outside spending, Vance has not appeared in Republican advertising on broadcast, according to a PMG analysis of AdImpact data. During more than a dozen discussions in the Rust Belt district following Vance's strong debate performance, many local voters and political representatives expressed indifference or negativity toward him.
“I don't think [Trump and Vance] have very good character. The things they say, like just last night on the debate. … A lot of the things [Vance] was saying, just like Trump, were outrageous and inflammatory,” stated Stephanie Garcia, a 55-year-old insurance worker in downtown Toledo who supports Kaptur. “Business wise, it might be best for the country, but character is a big deal for me.”
UAW Local 14 President Tony Totty added, “I literally have members who told me: ‘I'm voting for Trump, but I'm splitting the ticket. I'm going to vote for Marcy, and I'm going to vote for Sen. [Sherrod] Brown.’ Because they see them in action.” Even among voters backing Merrin and Trump, Vance largely remained absent in their decision-making process, with some unaware of him prior to the debate.
“I didn't really know anything about [Vance], even though we're both from Ohio, but I thought he really did good [in the debate],” remarked Darlene Fisher outside a Kroger grocery store, noting her support for Merrin as “Marcy's been in there too long. I know her personally. She needs to retire.”
While GOP leaders celebrated Vance's selection in July, rank-and-file Republicans expressed reservations about his impact as a senator from a solid-red state aligned with Trump's political views. If Vance isn’t being utilized as an asset in Toledo, it raises questions about where he might benefit the party during this election cycle.
Meanwhile, Kaptur capitalized on a now-famous moment from last year’s UAW strike, in which she questioned Vance at the picket line: “First time here?” Among other strategies, she is deliberately keeping a distance from the vice presidential candidate, trying to insulate her campaign from the highly partisan atmosphere at the national level.
Reflecting on that moment, Kaptur said with enthusiasm: “What does he know about the auto industry and the trucking industry?” She has successfully maintained strong community ties in a district that favored Trump by 3 points in 2020, making her influence evident after four decades of representation. Next to a display at a local county office titled “Lucas County’s Wall of Friends,” Kaptur spoke with PMG, underscoring her long-standing connections to the community.
After Vance’s strong debate performance, Kaptur downplayed the potential impact he might have on the election: “I think he has high ambitions, and so he's been successful in getting elected in Ohio, but he hasn't had time, really to have any results.” Vance was elected to the Senate two years ago and had built a career primarily outside of politics.
Additionally, Republicans face a challenge with Democrats' change at the top of the presidential ticket this summer, which diminished their top-of-the-ticket vulnerabilities. A late-July poll showed Trump and Harris effectively tied in the district after President Joe Biden exited the race, whereas Biden had a 36 percent favorability rating compared to a 60 percent unfavorable rating. Vance, who narrowly lost this district in his 2022 Senate race, recorded a 48 percent unfavorable rating.
Despite these challenges, Republicans remain optimistic about the district shifting in their favor. However, ticket-splitting between presidential and House candidates is challenging, and Kaptur's 2022 victory was partly due to an ineffective GOP candidate, J.R. Majewski. “After 41 years in Congress with almost nothing to show for it, Marcy Kaptur has left Ohioans behind and Derek Merrin is strategically positioned to capitalize on the Trump/Vance momentum — flipping this seat red and ending Kaptur's tenure of inaction,” stated Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the House Republicans’ campaign arm.
Merrin did not grant an interview but provided a statement emphasizing his run is aimed at offering the “fresh leadership Northwest Ohio needs to fight for those in our community who are truly hurting due to the skyrocketing inflation of the Biden/Kaptur economy.” He expressed pride in supporting the Trump/Vance ticket, claiming their policies would prioritize the American people and restore the American dream.
Vance’s spokesperson, William Martin, asserted that Ohio Republicans are "energized" and confident in their prospects for November, indicating Vance’s commitment to supporting Trump in the White House as he travels across the country spreading the America First message.
Interestingly, Vance isn’t prominently involved in other competitive races in the state, missing as a surrogate for Moreno in the Senate race and not appearing in the Northeast Ohio congressional battle where first-term Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes seeks re-election. Some Republicans defended the lack of emphasis on Vance, suggesting his focus would be more beneficial in battleground states.
“He's got a lot on his plate,” said Republican state Rep. Josh Williams, who represents a Toledo-area district. “He’s been here advocating for change here in Ohio. I believe that there's enough momentum here in Ohio for a true shift in politics here.”
Much of Merrin’s critique of Kaptur revolves around immigration issues, with Republican ads branding her as a career politician. “Marcy Kaptur has been in Congress for 40 years, 40 years of voting for open borders,” claimed a recent spot from the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Kaptur, like many Democrats in swing districts this election cycle, pointed to the bipartisan border bill that was derailed by Republicans as part of her efforts to address migration issues at the southern border. Embracing her lengthy congressional tenure, she stated, “I think one of the problems the country is having right now is people don't stay in elected office long enough.” She highlighted persistent regional challenges like Great Lakes water quality and rail infrastructure, stressing the need for experienced leadership: “We can't have green people being elected at every level who come with no experience in governance.”
Her seniority has bolstered her visibility, but it may also be a double-edged sword. Robert Voltz, a 42-year-old Jeep worker ambulating with his dog, expressed uncertainty over the House race: "I know who Marcy is. I don’t know who her opponent is.” Susan Hinkel, departing from Kroger, expressed frustration, stating it was “time for her to go home.”
As for the 78-year-old Kaptur, she has offered no clues about retirement should she win re-election. “I don't know that answer, but the seniority I hold belongs to the people I represent,” she said. “They stuck with me through thick and thin, and I hope they'll say the same about me someday, that I stuck with them through thick and thin.”
Debra A Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
