Trump's Tariffs Aid Liberals in Canada, But Not in the US
For 17 years, the Conservative Party has maintained a stronghold in this working-class city. Despite Canada’s recent shift toward the left, this dominance may remain unaffected.
TroibNews 
BRANTFORD, Ontario, Canada — The low-rise factories that line the edges of Brantford, Ontario—located just an hour from Toronto and an hour and a half from the U.S.-Canada border—are responsible for making paper cartons for eggs, construction steel wire, and precision tooling for auto parts. While these industries may lack glamour, they are critical to the global supply chain and serve as the largest employers in this city of 104,688.
In a place like Brantford, President Donald Trump’s tariffs—25 percent on steel and auto imports—are devastating. As companies struggle with increased trading costs with the U.S., manufacturing plants are temporarily closing, employees are being laid off, and those remaining are left wondering, “Will I be next?”
“We’re continuously dealing with the ups and downs,” states Chris Holland, an executive member of a steelworkers union chapter that includes many Brantford manufacturing workers. His recent days are filled with termination meetings and negotiating leave agreements. “We don’t really see a decent future.”
Conventional wisdom suggests that Canada’s Liberals will easily defeat the Conservatives in this month’s prime ministerial election, driven largely by the tariffs. Canadians appear to believe that the current Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney is better positioned to negotiate with Trump than the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre. This sentiment is often presumed to be even more pronounced in a working-class city affected by the tariffs.
However, in Brantford, which has been identified as the fifth most vulnerable city in Canada to tariffs because of its manufacturing sector, a divide exists, especially as Conservatives strive to maintain their 17-year hold on the city. When Carney visited on Friday, attracting hundreds of supporters clad in red, a smaller contingent of counter-protesters stood nearby with megaphones and anti-Carney signs.
Outside of Liberal gatherings, many locals express intentions to vote for the Conservative party for various reasons, including skepticism towards the Liberals, dissatisfaction with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and a general fondness for local MP Larry Brock. While Carney may have an impressive background in economics—an asset in light of a potential Trump-induced global recession—many in Brantford still view him as just another Liberal.
Residents share a belief that the Conservatives are better suited to repair the economy, reflecting how in places like Brantford, political identity can overshadow concerns about tariffs that seem to bolster the Liberal party in other regions. Cities like Brantford are crucial for Poilievre if he hopes to have any chance of success on April 28 or to avoid a complete rout.
The city is indeed frustrated with Trump’s tariffs and the faltering relationship between the U.S. and Canada—two nations that have depended on each other for years. Brantford is experiencing a time filled with mourning and anxiety, as factory employees wait with bated breath for news of potential layoffs. Grocery stores enthusiastically promote Canadian-made products, often featuring the maple leaf. Even Brantford's Mayor Kevin Davis, whose family has a long history of cross-border travel, expressed anger upon hearing the tariff announcements.
“There's a sense of betrayal. When times are tough, Americans and Canadians have stuck together. We've backed one another, whether it's the Korean War or Afghanistan, World War II,” Davis remarks while seated in his office at Brantford City Hall, decorated with over 150 years' worth of memorabilia.
“Canadians and Americans have been there for one another because we also defend, jointly, North America. So it felt like, ‘Why us?’”
Despite this anger, it hasn't translated into as many votes for the Liberals as they might hope. Poll aggregator 338Canada shows that although support for Liberals has increased by 11 percent since Carney became prime minister in early March, the Conservatives still lead by 12 percentage points.
One reason for the Conservative party's strong base in Brantford is the continuing popularity of MP Larry Brock, a member of Poilievre’s Shadow Cabinet. Serving Brantford-Brant since 2021, Brock has a notable history as an assistant Crown attorney, where he prosecuted criminal cases—a position that has shaped his tough-on-crime messaging, still favored by many residents. The blue Larry Brock lawn signs proliferating the streets illustrate this appeal.
However, in Brantford, this isn't merely an election about tariffs or Trump. Instead, it serves as a referendum on the last decade of Liberal governance.
At an auto parts store near downtown Brantford, Khaled Abo, the manager, sits at the register waiting for customers.
“The work is very slow now; it’s supposed to be very busy nowadays as the seasons change over,” he observes. “But people don’t have money.”
Abo feels the effects of the tariffs acutely. He points to a corner of the store where a sparsely stocked wall rack displays a few tire wheels; it's nearly empty because he has been postponing new purchases, trying to figure out how long he can wait before stocking up at potentially higher prices. With fewer customers and only a handful of cars parked outside for service, the mood among consumers reflects growing economic uncertainty.
Yet Abo believes it is the Conservatives who hold the key to his business’s survival.
“Conservative, it’s better for our businesses. For me, I think I’m gonna go Conservative,” he asserts. “I promise you this: If [Liberals] win another election, they’re gonna put the carbon tax back on. I don’t want that.”
In Abo’s view, Poilievre possesses the necessary insights to solve issues like affordability and homelessness—central elements of his campaign messaging. He believes the Conservatives, rather than the Liberals, can address these concerns. Poilievre has claimed that Canada is "broken" and aims to "build the homes" necessary to meet surging real estate demand while also pledging a far more significant income tax reduction than Carney.
“As an immigrant, Liberal is better. But look, we live in this country. I've seen so many homeless, so many people that are poor,” Abo conveys. “And the Conservative party, they are promising to take care of these kind of people, right? I think I'm gonna stand with my Canadian people. I don't care about outside—I know we help outside a lot, but I think it's time to help inside.”
Similarly, for Alexis Williams, who works at a furniture leasing store, Poilievre's capability as a negotiator with Trump isn't her primary concern. Instead, she attributes the economic struggles to Trudeau and uses this assessment to inform her vote.
“I don't think Liberals are gonna do anything good for us. I don't have a side in any of it. In my opinion, honestly, politics suck,” Williams remarks. “But in this situation, I think Trudeau screwed this country. So, yeah, it needs to get away from Liberal.”
This sentiment echoes the rhetoric employed by Poilievre during his campaign, asserting that Liberals have derailed the economy, which is now in dire straits. He wants voters to see the Liberals as responsible for the cost of living crisis, housing shortages, and even Canada’s dependence on the U.S.
“We need to reverse the disastrous Liberal economic policies of the last 10 years that made us so dependent on the Americans in the first place,” Poilievre declared at a recent campaign rally. This message may have lost its impact in many parts of Canada, but it retains significance in Brantford, where Conservative loyalty persists despite dissenters.
For his critics, the party's sustained popularity here is disheartening yet not surprising, particularly given rising anti-Trudeau sentiment last year. “People are tired of the Liberals, so it might be, ‘OK, we don't care what Liberals are doing, now we are going to vote for somebody else and next best,’” says Kathleen B., casually chatting with other parents in the lobby of the Wayne Gretzky Sports Centre—an establishment named after the national hockey icon who grew up in Brantford.
Though Kathleen prefers to remain anonymous to avoid possible conflict over her pro-Liberal stance, the local scene isn't immune to the forces bolstering Carney’s election expectations. The turnout at Carney’s Brantford campaign event suggests his party could reclaim some votes, which could tighten the race. Mayor Davis predicts that MP Brock, who previously won by nearly 12 points in 2021, will face a closer contest this time around, indicating that tariff debates may erode Poilievre’s stronghold in this traditionally Conservative town.
For those on the left organizing within Brantford, even a slight shift leftward is enough to inspire them. “We'll see change. It won't happen this term. It may happen the next term, but we've got some rebuilding to do,” says Holland, whose union supports the progressive New Democratic Party.
Ultimately, the perception of change varies significantly among the constituents.
For Martin Greenway, the Conservatives symbolize a much-needed fresh start. As he sits on a bench under the rows of Canadian flags in the Wayne Gretzky Sports Centre, he confidently expresses his beliefs. The khaki baseball cap he wears, displaying a U.S. flag, symbolizes a long-standing relationship that has been strained.
The manufacturing plant he works at, located just outside Brantford, has certainly felt the impact of tariffs, leading to layoffs and impending shutdowns.
The need for a new direction is clear, but for Greenway, that path involves moving away from the Liberals.
“The track record that they’ve had the past several years,” he asserts, “it’s time for a change.”
Rohan Mehta for TROIB News
In a place like Brantford, President Donald Trump’s tariffs—25 percent on steel and auto imports—are devastating. As companies struggle with increased trading costs with the U.S., manufacturing plants are temporarily closing, employees are being laid off, and those remaining are left wondering, “Will I be next?”
“We’re continuously dealing with the ups and downs,” states Chris Holland, an executive member of a steelworkers union chapter that includes many Brantford manufacturing workers. His recent days are filled with termination meetings and negotiating leave agreements. “We don’t really see a decent future.”
Conventional wisdom suggests that Canada’s Liberals will easily defeat the Conservatives in this month’s prime ministerial election, driven largely by the tariffs. Canadians appear to believe that the current Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney is better positioned to negotiate with Trump than the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre. This sentiment is often presumed to be even more pronounced in a working-class city affected by the tariffs.
However, in Brantford, which has been identified as the fifth most vulnerable city in Canada to tariffs because of its manufacturing sector, a divide exists, especially as Conservatives strive to maintain their 17-year hold on the city. When Carney visited on Friday, attracting hundreds of supporters clad in red, a smaller contingent of counter-protesters stood nearby with megaphones and anti-Carney signs.
Outside of Liberal gatherings, many locals express intentions to vote for the Conservative party for various reasons, including skepticism towards the Liberals, dissatisfaction with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and a general fondness for local MP Larry Brock. While Carney may have an impressive background in economics—an asset in light of a potential Trump-induced global recession—many in Brantford still view him as just another Liberal.
Residents share a belief that the Conservatives are better suited to repair the economy, reflecting how in places like Brantford, political identity can overshadow concerns about tariffs that seem to bolster the Liberal party in other regions. Cities like Brantford are crucial for Poilievre if he hopes to have any chance of success on April 28 or to avoid a complete rout.
The city is indeed frustrated with Trump’s tariffs and the faltering relationship between the U.S. and Canada—two nations that have depended on each other for years. Brantford is experiencing a time filled with mourning and anxiety, as factory employees wait with bated breath for news of potential layoffs. Grocery stores enthusiastically promote Canadian-made products, often featuring the maple leaf. Even Brantford's Mayor Kevin Davis, whose family has a long history of cross-border travel, expressed anger upon hearing the tariff announcements.
“There's a sense of betrayal. When times are tough, Americans and Canadians have stuck together. We've backed one another, whether it's the Korean War or Afghanistan, World War II,” Davis remarks while seated in his office at Brantford City Hall, decorated with over 150 years' worth of memorabilia.
“Canadians and Americans have been there for one another because we also defend, jointly, North America. So it felt like, ‘Why us?’”
Despite this anger, it hasn't translated into as many votes for the Liberals as they might hope. Poll aggregator 338Canada shows that although support for Liberals has increased by 11 percent since Carney became prime minister in early March, the Conservatives still lead by 12 percentage points.
One reason for the Conservative party's strong base in Brantford is the continuing popularity of MP Larry Brock, a member of Poilievre’s Shadow Cabinet. Serving Brantford-Brant since 2021, Brock has a notable history as an assistant Crown attorney, where he prosecuted criminal cases—a position that has shaped his tough-on-crime messaging, still favored by many residents. The blue Larry Brock lawn signs proliferating the streets illustrate this appeal.
However, in Brantford, this isn't merely an election about tariffs or Trump. Instead, it serves as a referendum on the last decade of Liberal governance.
At an auto parts store near downtown Brantford, Khaled Abo, the manager, sits at the register waiting for customers.
“The work is very slow now; it’s supposed to be very busy nowadays as the seasons change over,” he observes. “But people don’t have money.”
Abo feels the effects of the tariffs acutely. He points to a corner of the store where a sparsely stocked wall rack displays a few tire wheels; it's nearly empty because he has been postponing new purchases, trying to figure out how long he can wait before stocking up at potentially higher prices. With fewer customers and only a handful of cars parked outside for service, the mood among consumers reflects growing economic uncertainty.
Yet Abo believes it is the Conservatives who hold the key to his business’s survival.
“Conservative, it’s better for our businesses. For me, I think I’m gonna go Conservative,” he asserts. “I promise you this: If [Liberals] win another election, they’re gonna put the carbon tax back on. I don’t want that.”
In Abo’s view, Poilievre possesses the necessary insights to solve issues like affordability and homelessness—central elements of his campaign messaging. He believes the Conservatives, rather than the Liberals, can address these concerns. Poilievre has claimed that Canada is "broken" and aims to "build the homes" necessary to meet surging real estate demand while also pledging a far more significant income tax reduction than Carney.
“As an immigrant, Liberal is better. But look, we live in this country. I've seen so many homeless, so many people that are poor,” Abo conveys. “And the Conservative party, they are promising to take care of these kind of people, right? I think I'm gonna stand with my Canadian people. I don't care about outside—I know we help outside a lot, but I think it's time to help inside.”
Similarly, for Alexis Williams, who works at a furniture leasing store, Poilievre's capability as a negotiator with Trump isn't her primary concern. Instead, she attributes the economic struggles to Trudeau and uses this assessment to inform her vote.
“I don't think Liberals are gonna do anything good for us. I don't have a side in any of it. In my opinion, honestly, politics suck,” Williams remarks. “But in this situation, I think Trudeau screwed this country. So, yeah, it needs to get away from Liberal.”
This sentiment echoes the rhetoric employed by Poilievre during his campaign, asserting that Liberals have derailed the economy, which is now in dire straits. He wants voters to see the Liberals as responsible for the cost of living crisis, housing shortages, and even Canada’s dependence on the U.S.
“We need to reverse the disastrous Liberal economic policies of the last 10 years that made us so dependent on the Americans in the first place,” Poilievre declared at a recent campaign rally. This message may have lost its impact in many parts of Canada, but it retains significance in Brantford, where Conservative loyalty persists despite dissenters.
For his critics, the party's sustained popularity here is disheartening yet not surprising, particularly given rising anti-Trudeau sentiment last year. “People are tired of the Liberals, so it might be, ‘OK, we don't care what Liberals are doing, now we are going to vote for somebody else and next best,’” says Kathleen B., casually chatting with other parents in the lobby of the Wayne Gretzky Sports Centre—an establishment named after the national hockey icon who grew up in Brantford.
Though Kathleen prefers to remain anonymous to avoid possible conflict over her pro-Liberal stance, the local scene isn't immune to the forces bolstering Carney’s election expectations. The turnout at Carney’s Brantford campaign event suggests his party could reclaim some votes, which could tighten the race. Mayor Davis predicts that MP Brock, who previously won by nearly 12 points in 2021, will face a closer contest this time around, indicating that tariff debates may erode Poilievre’s stronghold in this traditionally Conservative town.
For those on the left organizing within Brantford, even a slight shift leftward is enough to inspire them. “We'll see change. It won't happen this term. It may happen the next term, but we've got some rebuilding to do,” says Holland, whose union supports the progressive New Democratic Party.
Ultimately, the perception of change varies significantly among the constituents.
For Martin Greenway, the Conservatives symbolize a much-needed fresh start. As he sits on a bench under the rows of Canadian flags in the Wayne Gretzky Sports Centre, he confidently expresses his beliefs. The khaki baseball cap he wears, displaying a U.S. flag, symbolizes a long-standing relationship that has been strained.
The manufacturing plant he works at, located just outside Brantford, has certainly felt the impact of tariffs, leading to layoffs and impending shutdowns.
The need for a new direction is clear, but for Greenway, that path involves moving away from the Liberals.
“The track record that they’ve had the past several years,” he asserts, “it’s time for a change.”
Rohan Mehta for TROIB News
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