The numbers behind Trump's confidence the Jan. 6 indictment won't matter

The most common sentiment from Republican voters about Jan. 6, 2021, isn't that it was an assault on democracy or that Donald Trump is the true winner of the 2020 election.

It's that they are over it.

The polling industry, like the Republican electorate, has largely moved on from it too. The most recent numbers come from surveys conducted last December or in early January, timed to the second anniversary of the riot earlier this year. And they tell, largely, the same story.

As a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll from late December showed: 73 percent of Republicans agreed that there has been too much focus on Jan. 6.

While the GOP electorate may be eager to move on from that moment, it doesn’t mean that it won’t matter in the primary. Indeed, as additional federal criminal charges loom over Donald Trump for his alleged efforts to steal the 2020 presidential election from Joe Biden, there is still an opportunity for Trump's rivals to contrast themselves with the former president.

That's because, despite that too-much-focus number, public opinion among Republicans around the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol is complicated.

In the days and weeks immediately following Jan. 6, Republicans, like all Americans, overwhelmingly disapproved of the rioters' actions.

That's not the case anymore: More Republicans still say they disapprove of the Capitol attack, but there's a growing bloc in the GOP that sympathizes both with the rioters' demands and actions.

That's part of the reason why Trump's opponents have tiptoed around the issue since the former president decried receiving a "target letter" from the Justice Department last weekend. The number of Republicans who agree with what Trump's supporters did on Jan. 6 is still a distinct minority — but that doesn't mean the majority cares much about it or thinks it disqualifies Trump from running again.

So what do Republicans actually think about what happened on Jan. 6? Here are five takeaways from the polling data:

Few Republicans support the Jan. 6 rioters — but that share is growing

For all of Trump’s embrace of the Jan. 6 attack — whether suggesting he will pardon those convicted of federal crimes or being serenaded at a political event by rioters in a song recorded over a jailhouse phone line — it’s not popular, even among Republican voters.

But opinions are softening. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted around the first of the year — timed to the second anniversary of the attack — found that 49 percent of Republicans disapproved of the events at the Capitol that day. That was down a whopping 25 points from a poll conducted the week after Jan. 6.

But the roughly half of Republicans who disapproved of the Jan. 6 attack is still significantly more than the 32 percent who said they approved of it in the most recent Economist/YouGov poll — an increase from 16 percent immediately after the riot.

Republicans are less likely to blame Trump for the attack

It may have been Trump’s refusal to concede the 2020 election that brought his supporters to Washington, but most Republicans give the former president a pass when it comes to the Capitol breach.

In the Dec. 2022 POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, 40 percent of Republican voters said Trump had “no responsibility at all” for “the events that led to a group of people attacking police and breaking into” the Capitol, while another 16 percent said he wasn’t too responsible.

Only 14 percent of Republicans described Trump as “very responsible” for Jan. 6, compared to 45 percent of all voters. In total, only 31 percent of GOP voters said Trump was “very” or “somewhat responsible” — even though 59 percent of all voters assign that level of responsibility to Trump.

Republicans have Jan. 6 fatigue

Last December, Quinnipiac University asked voters to choose between two sentences with which they agreed more: The “storming” of the Capitol “was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten,” or “too much is being made of the storming” of the Capitol, “and it is time to move on.”

The results among Republican voters were lopsided: 79 percent said it’s time to move on. Only 16 percent said Jan. 6 shouldn’t be forgotten.

But that puts Republicans crosswise with the broader electorate. A majority of voters, 56 percent, think the events of Jan. 6 should never be forgotten. Roughly four in 10, 39 percent, think it’s time to move on. The numbers among crucial independent voters are nearly identical: 56 percent say Jan. 6 shouldn’t be forgotten; 38 percent say it’s time to move on.

GOP voters don’t see Trump’s conduct as criminal

Quinnipiac also asked voters whether Trump’s “efforts to change the results” of the 2020 presidential election were criminal or not. Overall, half of voters, 50 percent, say they were, compared to 42 percent who said Trump didn’t commit a crime.

But only 9 percent of Republicans thought Trump’s maneuvering to remain in power, despite losing the election, constituted a crime. Roughly eight in 10, 81 percent, said Trump’s actions weren’t criminal.

Few Republicans say Jan. 6 will affect their 2024 vote — either way

In the Dec. 2022 POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, only 16 percent of GOP voters said the events of Jan. 6 would have “a major impact” on their vote in the 2024 presidential election. That could, however, include the small-but-real cadre of Republicans who approve of the attack on the Capitol and supported Trump’s efforts to remain president despite losing the election.

(Trump, who announced in Nov. 2022 that he was running again, was already a declared candidate when the poll was conducted.)

Another 19 percent of Republicans said it will have “a minor impact,” while nearly two-in-three, 65 percent said it won’t have any impact at all.

Overall, about a third of voters, 34 percent, said Jan. 6 would have a major impact. But many of those are Democrats disinclined to cross over and vote for Trump anyway. A narrow majority of Democrats, 53 percent, said it would have a major impact.