The 2028 Democratic Primary Has Begun, with Key Developments Imminent

Kamala Harris is currently considering another presidential run, with some Democrats showing openness to the prospect. However, it's unlikely she will single-handedly dominate the field in the future. Potential challengers from the Democratic Party are already strategizing for the 2028 election, especially following her brief second candidacy. The party's primary activity is expected to gain momentum shortly after Donald Trump's inauguration next month.

As we approach the conclusion of 2024, we gathered five seasoned political reporters to discuss Harris' potential political future, the positioning of other ambitious Democrats, and how the outcomes of the recent elections will influence the landscape heading into 2028.

**David Siders:** Let’s begin by focusing on the vice president. What calculations is she making, and what’s her timeline like? Additionally, if she opts to run, will that put her against ambitious Californian Gavin Newsom?

**Christopher Cadelago:** Harris must consider what she truly wants after leaving office on January 20, rather than what others think she should do. As we've noted, she has a viable path to becoming California's governor, but if she pursues that route in 2026, it would likely indicate that she isn’t aiming for the presidency in 2028, given the timing of the primary.

**Holly Otterbein:** Despite her defeat, those close to Harris believe she mounted a strong campaign and isn’t the type of typical losing candidate who becomes less favored by the end of their run. They don’t feel she needs to rush her decision, but the calendar necessitates that she figures out her 2026 gubernatorial run by mid-next year.

**Elena Schneider:** Once someone aspires to be president, reversing that decision is often a struggle. For Harris, if she entered the 2028 race, it would be among one of the most competitive Democratic primaries in recent memory. While her name recognition and established relationships with donors give her advantages, entering as a two-time candidate without a win poses challenges, meaning she wouldn’t necessarily push rivals like Newsom out of the way.

**Adam Wren:** The groundwork for the 2028 campaign has been laid quietly since before July 2024 when Biden stepped aside. It was evident during the DNC in Chicago; networking was happening through various early state breakfasts and fundraisers. While Harris has more time to decide, other ambitious candidates aren’t likely to defer to her the way they did previously.

**Lisa Kashinsky:** Reflecting on Adam’s point, consider the number of Democrats — including Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and JB Pritzker — who were present in New Hampshire not only to support Harris but also to cultivate connections for themselves.

**Cadelago:** Finally, how Harris articulates her motivation for either position will be critical. It’s important to clarify why she seeks the presidency beyond mere personal ambition. Understanding her reasoning will impact her chances, particularly in a presidential race.

**Siders:** Shifting focus, what about other potential contenders? Who is emerging as serious candidates, and what strategies are they implementing?

**Schneider:** I never would’ve predicted back in January 2019 that I would witness the South Bend mayor's rise in Iowa the following year. It’s hard to say who will resonate with the electorate; it could be someone not yet in the conversation.

However, I’m watching candidates outside traditional party paths, particularly those who maintain a distinct voice unfiltered by consultants, such as Wes Moore, the governor of Maryland, and Georgia’s Senator Raphael Warnock.

**Wren:** Speaking of the former South Bend mayor, he recently appeared on New Hampshire talk radio. He’s in a favorable position for 2028, with a robust fundraising network in place. After raising more for the Harris-Walz campaign than Newsom, combined with living in swing-state Michigan rather than Indiana, he’s also effectively engaging in the podcast space. Yet, he may opt for a gubernatorial run, emphasizing that Democrats’ future relies heavily on local and state leadership.

**Otterbein:** The 2028 primary has long been in action with potential candidates like Moore, Warnock, Shapiro, Whitmer, Pritzker, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, Cory Booker, Jared Polis, Ro Khanna, John Fetterman, Amy Klobuchar, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez entering the mix. As we mentioned earlier, the 2028 primary is anticipated to be a large, chaotic field.

**Kashinsky:** Look at all the Democrats who passed through New Hampshire this year — including Newsom, Buttigieg, Khanna, Booker, Beshear, Klobuchar, and even Senator Michael Bennet. Many sought to engage with the state's most active Democratic activists well in advance of the primary elections.

**Otterbein:** The recent movements by various candidates since Trump’s victory illustrate a range of strategies: Newsom presents himself as a vanguard of Resistance 2.0, pushing for a special legislative session to "Trump-proof" California, while Fetterman is reaching out to Trump supporters, seemingly positioning himself as a centrist who could attract MAGA voters.

**Cadelago:** Democratic governors are in a nuanced position as they rely on Trump for federal support for their states despite political differences. While they may want to challenge Trump, many hail from localities that favored his populist message, complicating their ability to stand out in a crowded field.

**Siders:** What opportunities and challenges do Democrats face in distinguishing themselves next year?

**Wren:** As Chris pointed out regarding Newsom and Holly’s comments on Fetterman, there’s no unified message emerging from the party after the election. This lack of consensus on strategy risks division as candidates maneuver for different electoral roles.

**Kashinsky:** Within Democratic governors, some are capitalizing on their positions during Trump’s first term, acting as counterforces to his administration, while others, like Whitmer from a state Trump won, are focused on collaboration. Newer governors like Shapiro and Moore have been quieter, as overt criticism of Trump is less fashionable, and they need to establish governing success to bolster their candidacies.

**Schneider:** I'm intrigued by the environments these Democrats will choose to present their cases. The 2020 primary thrived on traditional cable news platforms, but with viewership declining, candidates may need to pivot to podcasts or YouTube shows to engage with Democratic voters effectively.

**Cadelago:** There will be ample chances to criticize Trump from a values perspective. His policies will frequently clash with Democratic principles, providing opportunities for governors to speak out on unpopular actions within their states.

Simultaneously, candidates must focus on building strong campaign infrastructures. Besides Harris, only a few have successfully established strong donor networks. Newsom has cultivated a significant email list and raised substantial funds for Democrats, while Pritzker's financial resources and DNC involvement bolster his potential.

**Otterbein:** Despite recent challenges, Harris holds a favorable position in polling compared to Biden in the 2016 cycle. Many Democrats believe she had a robust campaign. As potential candidates approach the field, how they address or navigate discussions surrounding her previous loss will be crucial for their own viability.

**Siders:** Ideologically, we see some Democrats leaning more conservatively and even adopting aspects of Trump’s populism. Is this approach sustainable, or will they be pulled left during the primaries?

**Wren:** Elena’s observations regarding the evolving media landscape for 2028 candidates are significant, and it’s clear that the party often finds itself reacting to recent history. Podcasting remains omnipresent in political discourse.

**Cadelago:** Harris faces a notable challenge with the evolving primary calendar. Securing an early win in South Carolina may not yield the anticipated momentum without successful follow-through in subsequent races, particularly in New Hampshire, a state where she was absent in 2019.

**Schneider:** Democrats recognized the value of strategic communication after 2020, especially given how Trump's team utilized Harris' comments against her. Future candidates will likely be cautious in filling out issue surveys that could create conflicts during their campaigns. Conversely, a candidate successfully championing liberal viewpoints might find an enthusiastic audience.

**Cadelago:** Ultimately, this remains a Democratic primary. Candidates won't gain much traction simply by aligning with Trump, and by 2027, praising Biden’s record may be the favored route rather than conciliation with the Republican president.

**Wren:** The binary right-left classification may be ineffective in 2028, as Trump has redefined Republican norms, necessitating a transformation in Democratic identity as well. Local candidates have defied conventional messaging and emerged on top, indicating a need for Democrats to recalibrate.

**Kashinsky:** There’s a growing recognition among Democrats that reconnecting with everyday Americans is crucial. Many voters appear more interested in candidates discussing practical issues rather than those rooted in ideology. However, changing established habits can be challenging, and the real test will be whether any candidates implement the lessons learned as the primaries begin.

**Otterbein:** Following Trump’s victory in 2016, many Democrats believed moving left was the solution, with the sense that Clinton failed to energize the base. The Democratic landscape has shifted, as now many DNC figures seek a return to the political center. However, given the rapid changes in the political landscape, this dynamic could shift dramatically over the next four years.

**Siders:** Finally, the discussion surrounding gender following the election is significant, especially with many Democrats asserting that sexism played a role in the results. How will this impact women considering a run in 2028?

**Otterbein:** Following Trump’s win over Clinton, there was a palpable reluctance among Democratic voters in early states to support another woman for fear of electability. After Harris’ defeat, I can foresee similar hesitations resurfacing in 2028.

**Cadelago:** A lot will hinge on the sentiment among Democratic voters in 2027. Historically, a priority on "electability" has overshadowed other criteria, especially after the challenges faced by Harris and Clinton. Some Democrats are even speculating that a conservative Republican may be the first woman president, but successful messaging could mitigate these concerns for future candidates.

**Schneider:** I strongly agree. In the wake of Harris’ loss, doubts about the electability of women candidates resurfaced, making it unlikely that they could evade the same scrutiny that plagued contenders in 2024.

**Kashinsky:** Although it’s valid to argue that both Harris and Clinton had specific flaws, the perception surrounding their losses may persist and influence future candidates.

**Otterbein:** It's noteworthy that the current DNC chair race is comprised of four white men, reflecting lingering dynamics.

**Wren:** I concur with Lisa; both candidates indeed faced unique challenges. Harris’ early exit in her previous presidential run still looms large. Yet, the broader implications of gender in future campaigns may not play out as starkly as it did under Trump’s critiques.

**Cadelago:** It’s worth considering—now that it’s occurred twice—whether future narratives could pivot to the idea that women have lost to Trump, who won’t be a contender in 2028.

Mark B Thomas for TROIB News